Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Intense in 2005 (Update1)

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Atlantic Ocean hurricane season this year will be more turbulent than usual, continuing a trend that began in 1995 and culminated last year when four hurricanes lashed Florida, a team of scientists said.

The June-through-November season will bring 13 named storms, seven of which will develop into hurricanes, 19 percent more than average, Colorado State University scientists William Gray and Philip Klotzbach said in a report today from Fort Collins.

Three of the seven hurricanes will pack sustained winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or greater, making them major hurricanes on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the scientists said.

``The United States has entered a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity reflective of the high activity during eight of the last 10 years,'' Klotzbach said. ``We expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to span the next two or three decades.''

Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne last year caused more than $20 billion in U.S. property damage as they toppled offshore oil and gas platforms and forced thousands of residents to flee their homes.

Declining chances for El Nino conditions during the U.S. summer and fall bolster the likelihood of above-average activity, the scientists said. El Nino refers to warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America.

Favorable Conditions

``Conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season,'' Klotzbach said. ``We expect this year to continue the trend witnessed over the last decade of above- average hurricane seasons.''

The average season has 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes, Gray said. Two of the hurricanes typically are major storms, meaning they are at least Category 3 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 5 storms are the strongest.

The odds of at least one major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2005 are 73 percent, compared with a long-term probability of 52 percent, according to the report. About one in three major hurricanes make landfall in the U.S., based on historical averages.

Last year Gray and Klotzbach accurately predicted eight hurricanes would develop in the Atlantic. Six of those became major hurricanes, three more than the team forecast. The scientists predicted 14 named storms, one less than occurred.

``The 2004 hurricane season was an unusual year, and residents along the East Coast should not expect the high number of land-falling major hurricanes or the unprecedented level of destruction to be the norm for this or future years,'' Gray said in the report.

Tropical storms carry sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. Storms become hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale when their wind speeds reach at least 74 mph. Gray has been forecasting Atlantic basin hurricane seasons for 22 years.

Last Updated: April 1, 2005 16:47 EST