As an avid participator in various investment fora I have during the last 5 month in PTS programs noticed that programs come and go and I see different people reacting differently to this fact:

We all know that some PTS sites last longer than others and are more succesful than others. We also know that these programs are ponzi schemes partially or fully.

Some players in these PTS programs have developed strategies that will ensure them that they profit from these program while others seem to loose again and again. During spring 2006 we have all seen statements like this …this site could be the next 12DP …but I predict there will never be a program as big and succesfull as the defunct 12DP …because AS´s have adapted new strategies.

Accepting the fact that these investment programs are ponzi´s some have realized that the succes of these programs depends on a constant growth of new members and and new money to pay the old members/ old money.

Many prefer these programs because they usually last longer than HYIP´s and the wise autosurfers golden rules are:

1) Only invest what you can afford to loose.
2) Get your principal back ( don´t be a builder …play with profits ..get in get out …hit and run ( yes this is one of the reasons we will never see a new 12DP ..Hit and Runners!)

You might ask yourself why some programs become more succesfull than others? We do no longer buy the lies about reserve funds, (Wiredsurf) Multiple streams of income (Compact) we know that the key factor to a PTS programs succes( if longetivity is the messurring stick) is members support and willingness to reinvest. Admins decisions and communication has become crucial in our decission to go another cycle with a PTS programs. Change in the businessplan is almost always perceived as red flags and payments time have become the measurring stick in which direction a programs is heading…
I have also noted that members of these programs are the greatest enemies of themselves and a PTS programs succes. Any negativity is bad for a program. Do not post in public fora about your problems with a PTS site unless you are willing to take the bashing from supporters and Cheerleaders of that program. ( try to solve the problem with admin or support first before venting in a public forum). But if that doesn´t work out by all means post in a public forum.

I support a paying program (who doesn’t?) but there is a different between been a supporter of a program and beeing a cheerleader.

'Cheerleaders', in this arena, are plentiful. What are they? Well, when you go to an PTS related forum - typically, the particular PTS program's own forum - you'll see these people who do nothing but praise the particular program's admins, the 'investment' itself, etc. While there is nothing wrong with this, you need to exercise caution when listening to these people, because if you are gullible enough - these people can lead you down the path of losing money.

Let me give you an example. Often, the cheerleaders actually will unite when a program is crashing - you'll see them cheering, you'll see them placing 100 emoticon smiley faces in one post saying that everything is wonderful and newbies need not worry, etc. If you believe these people's garbage, you could be living an illusion, that you will actually see your money back, or you might make a mistake and lose more money by throwing more money into the program, when common sense, logic, and any rational thinking is telling you to not toss more money into the program, since the ship is already sinking.

We are only human, so it is natural for us to have hope - and the cheerleaders are providing people the light at the end of the tunnel, so there is a tendency to somewhat want to believe these people, because we are in denial that our money will never be in our pockets again, and we are in denial that the "almighty, good, honest admin" really was just one well organized, deceiving, giant ponzi operator.

Keep in mind, usually cheerleaders belong to one or more of the following categories:
• people who have joined the program very early on, and have made tons of money, so no matter what negative things happen in the program, they continue to be grateful and will continue praising the admin, since they have already enjoyed and spent the money
• bible-thumpers, 'praise the Lord' types, over-positive spiritual people, who think that just by believing that the program will resuscitate, that just by thinking positive, somehow your money will miraculously pop out from the sky, and magically fall right back into your hands.
• people who are actually connected to the program- buddies of the admin, people who are paid to cheerlead in order to keep the program moving forward, etc.
If you are a newbie, try to look out for the following pattern - believe me, I've seen this pattern happen over, and over, and over, (did I mention over?) and over again.
• Phase 1 - program begins, and grows
• Phase 2 - program explodes in growth and popularity, and everyone and their mother wants to join in and make a quick buck on this miracle
• Phase 3 - program admin announces 'changes' that are 'necessary for the stability/viability of the program'. While not all changes are bad, you want to look out for the ones that affect you negatively - such as lowered payouts, slowed down payments, etc. Or on the other hand, changes that seem too good and suspicious (such as a sudden increase in daily profits in %, if you invest new funds into the program) (as we have seen with WiredSurf and Gladiator Surf recently)
• Phase 4 - the negative effects set in - people start not receiving payments, people complain on the forums, there is widespread fear among the people who haven't made any profit yet, etc. Here is where the cheerleaders unite and start cheerleading in a major way, and this is the point at which I despise them. I despise them because, there truly are many newbies and gullible people who will believe these cheerleading fools, giving them a false sense of hope. I think that's morally questionable, don't you think? I honestly think that most of the cheerleading done at this stage is done by cheerleaders who are either a) heavily involved in the program, and they don't want to see their cash cow end so they'll do anything to defend the program, even though they are fully aware that this is ponzi scheme. Or b) cheerleaders who are actually gullible enough to believe that this 'investment' is for real, and they are honestly telling people that they think the admin is not lying to people, that we need to be patient, etc. because they truly are working on the 'issues'
• Phase 5 - program ends, you get an error when you type in the website address, or even if the website is still there - it's over, they aren't paying, communication from the admin either stops completely or is very rare.
So Phase 3 is of course, where you need to be careful, and where you should probably pull your money out - if you can. Phase 1 and 2 is where you make the most of your money, especially Phase 2. Seasoned PTS investors (aka 'ponzi jumpers') know this very well, and if you want to make any money in this (which consists of 99.99% ponzi-style investments) you have to learn this. You have to network with people, make sure you have people on your instant messenger lists, check the forums constantly, etc. It's actually a lot of work, if you want to do this successfully.

So wrapping it all up - exercise caution in any investment, listen to yourself, and beware of cheerleaders - they will give you a false sense of hope which will make you lose money. They do this ensure they will get their next payout …preferrably from your pocket, vallet or purse. If you bring any negativity to a public forum be ready to take the bashing and all the accusations that you personally are responsible for bringing the program down…but I stand by my statement …A pts program is only as good as it´s latest payment. Pay or dissappear. Period. I will not be silent in a public forum when a program obviusly has problems paying …my reputation doesn´t depend on it. Oh yes I could just be silent but nah…doesn´t go with my personality style. I will never be a cheerleader I only support paying programs. You will not hear me screaming at other people here on MMG to shut up if they have not been paid from a PTS program. Most of the time I just leave quietly when a program begins to fail …(and yes now we are called Hit and runners) ….because we are not Lemmings or willing to go down with the ship like the rest of the members of the PTS program. Othertimes I will be accused of trolling by posting negative posts about a program that is going down ....fighting in the threads have become everyday life in these threads ...sure keeps the moderators and Admins of MMG busy these days.

by posting stuff like this u certainly arent helping your strategy much at all if everyone knows about it

Can be added to the pinned thread.

good point... but that is the secret that everybody shouldnt know...

EXACTLY.

you SEEM smart enough to realize this jacomatt but you continously post thigns like this... did you know your "Strategy" would not work unless there are people who do not follow it? by posting this you are essentially killing your cashflow.
good one!

Although I depise senseless cheerleading, there is a happy medium, just as much as there is a medium between expressing concerns about the possible problems of a program and going off on emotional and panicky tangents and speculations about the pending doom of a program.

Frankly, lets be honest, cheerleading is a necessity, even the senseless kind, ala mardamfman, otherwise, lets face it, no one would invest. And we know that that is the one and only essential key, the life cycle of a ponzi... new members join and old members re-upgrade

Lets say payments are slowing and they really are running out of money... even though it's really just an assumtion on our part because we have no way of really knowing for sure that the slowing payouts are in fact a sign that it's almost dead unless we were the admin ourselves... does that still mean we should kill it when you and other people who are waiting for a payment, and who still might have a slight chance of getting paid, don't have any chance at all now? Suicide of ourselves to save others? Considering what a ponzi is and the unavoidable fate that will come... it's kind of silly

"Well I think we should raise flags when we assume the admin is BSing us with excuses." Okay. We've all heard the excuses and stall tactics a million times before a site closes, but what if that one admin really is experiencing a ddos attack, or really did get hacked, or having script problems, or issues with their bank, or really did have a death or sickness or other emergency in the family? How do we know for sure whether he/she is lying with the intent to stall or really telling the truth? It's simple... we can't. Then when we sound the flags and kill it, screwing us and everyone else out of any chance of getting paid, how do we really know for sure that we didn't act prematurely? It's simple... we can't

See the dilemma?

you right about the dilemma david, but the person who is hit and runner type doesn't care about of that.... as long this type already in profit, this type will post whatever this person like or think in the forum thread (without care that he/she post based on his/her prediction and not based in fact)
but in other case whenever hit and runner person still have the initial tight in the program and the program got an issue, he/she will shut the mouth or become the most wise person in that program thread.
in short word, take the program money, and ruin it in the next minute

btw... thanks sharing the strategy, jacob

Actually hit and run as a strategy in PTS programs was not was this thread was about. As participant in surf programs I just state that the golden rules are:

only invest what you can afford to loose
get your principal back and play with profits

I want to see payment before I reinvest. Before reupgrading I will always make an assesment whether I want to gamble another cycle or get out.

This conservative stratregy is proven to stop making you loose money. I should have listened to my intuition about Compact that could have prevented me from loosing money. Despite of red flags I really believed Compact Pay was just around the corner. Admin and support staff kept repeating that ...there was also ohter red flags I ignored and it became an expensive lesson. I should have quit after 9 cykles but greed got the best of me.

Now let´s take a program like TPR that only lasted 3 weeks. I initially invested 1100 dollars which was was i could afford to loose. I reinvested after the first friday but then I saw a red flag ...the debate about whether the 50/50 rule from GS should be implemented. I chose not to reinvest another 1000 dollars. By then I had doubled my money and the programs ran out of funds (because of drop in gold prices and because very few reinvested ...people hit and ran).

my strategy is about trying to prevent loosing money what´s wrong about that?

Take wiredsurf as an example .... a 10 days long DDOS attack brought the program down ...My assesment was that they handled that in a very unprofessional manner ...and the rumors about hackers depleting their egold accounts turned out to be true, because they had their egold accounts frozen 2 times.
then they raised their percentages .. I got my last payment after submitting a ticket. I decided not to reinvest. Supporters reinvested and cheerleaded that Wired was different than all other surfsites. But I didn´t believe this cheerleading. I didn´t reinvest ...turned out to be a wise decission.

Same with Phoenix ...way too many lies about their legitimazy ...and fast track was turned off and on all the time and payment took longer and longer. I got my last payment and posted I was out of there. Macfardamm posted the usuall ....don´t let the dorknob hit you in the back on your way out ....I never looked back ....and I´m thankfull I saw all the red flags and got out. Did that make me a hit and runner ...because I was not willing to go down with all the other seemingly blind cheerleaders and supporters?

So yes I see the dilemma.I support programs when they are working, when all the lies and stupid excuses to cover up cashflow problems begins it´s time to pull out ...unless you love to loose money. The question is should we keep supporting a program and begin to cheerlead in order to protect our own financial interests? or should we leave quietly? I prefer to leave quietly , but sometimes a programs doesn´t alow members to do that. I despise people who keep cheerleading a program that sends all the warning signals that it´s going down. Do I know for sure that a program is going down ...not 100 percent ...but I don´t take chances anymore. In this game there are winners and loosers. The most sore will be those that did not listen to the warning signals and kept supporting the program. Some will even claim at this stage that it´s not about the money anymore ...they will support a good program ...well suit yourself ..I prefer to move on. It can be after 2 cycles or it can be after 10-12 cycles. This is business and we shouldn´t get emotioanlly attached to a program. Past perfomance is not an indicator of future results.

Good luck to all in PTS programs.

That's a very well written article, thanks Jacob. I just hope newbies read it be4 they lose a lot as a lot of us did....

Just wanted to add one thing

Didnt noticed where it was written about difference between cheerleader and supporter.

And second, in my humble opinion... hit and runners will soon be out of game. They will either have to start play game same as long term investors, or will have to find them own field in HYIP games.


But all serious autosurf sites will plan future to protect themselves from hit and runners.

I totally agree, there is absolutely a point the wise investor pulls out, but there's a professional way to do it. Most people don't do it quietly, but they have to announce it to the world or rant and rave and have a fit about it, possibly ruining it for themselves and other people. Look at AT... plenty of whiners, doubters, ponzi killers, doomsayers... sure the payouts are slowing... maybe it's a sign of it dying or maybe the excuses about the problems with VM integration are the reason... but it's still paying, and when it comes to an end, it may have lasted even longer had it not been for the damage caused by all the doubters and second guessing who just had to make it public because they couldn't hold back their emotion

"But I want to save the poor newbs who don't know any better." That just takes us back to my previous argument. No one is a fortune teller, therefore no one knows for sure when the end will come. Ponzis will end in the latecomers losing every time and it's unavoidable, but I guarantee programs would last longer if it weren't for the premature damage inflicted on it in the forums

thank you souvy ...I posted it for everyone to learn and to have a good general debate going. Sometimes it´s not the right place to have this debate in the programs thread were it would be considered off topic. So I posted it here.




it was my intention to bring a debate about the difference of beeing a supporter and a cheerleader here instead of having it other places.. I stated that I only will be supportive of good paying programs ...If people begin to support programs that is showing every sign of dying/running out of funds ...I call them cheerleaders. Sometimes people begin to think these people are admin of the program because they defend it so much in the threads

Jacob, I can not give my opinion and post here, becuse it would not be ok, and you could not handle it.

you don´t have to be a fortuneteller to see the sign Davidscript! As I have described about two of the bigger Surfstes fall this spring (Wired and Phoenix ...I sure saw it coming) in Wiredsurfs case you defended the program to the last hours before they closed ...even if some members hadn´t been paid for a whole month. Some people defended every move the program took even though I saw right through all the lies we were fed. I wonder why these people were so blind and became cheerleaders? like I said in my initial article in this thread it´s only natural to have hope ...but sometimes people need to get more realistic.

Do I know that AT is running out of funds ...no not 100% but I have decided not to take the risk. Lot´s of people have been paid, but I for one has not received a payment for more than 16 days now. I can whine all I want but I will not get paid sooner for that reason.

Sometimes I can´t figure out I I should just shut up or stand up for my case ...not beeing paid. I also want to state that instead of flaming these whiners that have not been paid members should instead blame the Admin and staff because the program obviously have some mistakes ...and I will reserve my right to state that and my opinion about a programs even if it makes the program fall sooner. It was going to fall anyway

yes I could be very cynical and be a ponzi rider ...I certainly have learnt a lot.








Everybody has their right to give their opinion ...we have freedom of speech as long as MMG rules are beeing followed.

WS, huh. You guys trip me out with those prognostications. Guess why WS was waning in payouts... because people lost faith and dropped out... why? Negative post after negative post before they even had a chance to prove they could recover. Can you see the pattern here? You're like people who shoot holes in the bottom of a ship, then come back later when it finally sinks "see, I told you it was gonna sink."

I got news for you about WS... it was as legit as ponzis come and could of been a great program, probably the next 12dp, that's why I had high hopes for it, but people couldn't see the big picture and lost confidence during the ddos and flocked over to the CS scam. Trust this, if WS had the same member base, support (not second guessers and doubters), and external factors backing them, which I won't even get into, it would of blew CS out of the water

But anyway, okay, since you keep throwing the "I knew this program was gonna fold" trip...

I knew PS was an outright scam... I knew CS was an outright scam, and I have previous posts I made to back that up. I knew when CS delayed payments, it was over and they'd come up with some lame excuse why. I knew 13dp was gonna crash soon and I even pm'd umengtan days before it crashed and warned him to stay out because it would crash within the next 1-3 weeks, but big deal. Did I go into those threads and throw my prognostications around? No. Why?

1) They were ponzis and would of ended sooner or later, and guess what... people would lose in the end regardless whether I threw my porgnostications around or not
2) Maybe there was a slight chance that less people would of gotten paid before it actually ended if I did throw my prognostications around

It's that simple

I honestly think the problem is that people not only can't grasp how a ponzi works, and don't truely believe that these are gambles, but can't come to terms morally that people will lose in ponzis, but they still want play anyway so they have this rationale to blame the cheerleaders for not feeling the same guilt they feel and for making the ponzi run longer than it should have


So with this logic you're saying, "let me end it sooner than necessary, and blow any chance of me and other people getting paid, just to blow off emotional steam at the admin and make a point." "Let me make the hole in the ship bigger so that more people including myself drown faster because they can't get out in time, but at least I saved a few from getting on board too late."

Oh well, I can see I'm running around in circles here so I'll quit. Nice debating with ya though

POST

OF

THE YEAR



period.

You make some good points David! But I will not bash a program or an admin to make the ship sink faster ...I will be a supporter of the programs when it´s paying and it´s good. I actually like that people post their negative experiences ...this way I have a chance to get my money out ...yes a program will go down faster this way I know. But we all learn all all the time how to act smarter .
But I will stick to my my original point with this thread and it is that I despise the cheerleaders, that refuse to see that the programs is going down ...some of them do it based on financial motives ...like gettting refferal commision from their wictims or just to get paid themselves one more time. I hate that part of the game. And yes it is games ...and yes there are loosers and winners in games.