I found interesting ilustration "the relationship between US housing and Dollar

http://www.babypips.com/forex-analysis/pip...ive/032706.html

Enjoy it.

This friday we will face Nonfarm Payroll, the bigest news that will drive dollars up or down hardly.

Anyone know which data that will effect to NFP. I want do some reaseach but have no clue.

Some NFP FACT :

December 2005 : 215K
Jan : E/215K, F/108K >>DOWN
Feb : E/275K, F/193K >>DOWN
Mar : E/220K, F/243K >>UP
Apr : E/185K, F/211K >>UP
May : E/200K, F/138K >>DOWN
June : E/180K, F/75K >>DOWN
July : E/175K, F/???? >>??????

E=Estimate (Forecast)
F=Fact

NFP will be down and end any sort of usd retracements.

hi i just started to trade on fundametal strategies

do u guys have any good advise trading on fundamental

or where can i look up for news about this

any recommend website

thank you

It's very high possibility that NFP figures will be strong with good ADP report today.

Thanks for sending the ADP report phildunn. The non farm should push eurusd down quite a bit on Friday.

Here's some info on the ECB news tomorrow.

European Central Bank interest rate decision is expected to be a decision to leave rates unchanged at 2.75% as their pattern has been to raise rates 0.25% once each quarter. If interest rates are hiked a 0.25% to 3.00%, which is possible, this would be a surprise and EURUSD may probably increase 50 points or more above the pre-release price.


ECB President Trichet's press conference is expected to remain uncommitted on future interest rate hikes by reiterating that future rate hikes will depend upon incoming data. If Trichet mentions being vigilant or strongly vigilant on inflation or in any way comes across more hawkish than he was at the last press conference then EURUSD might possibly increase 50 points or more above the pre-statement price.

The ADP National Employment Report gave me some clue to forecast the NFP.

Oke, lets start analysis.
Since I only have ADP Report for Jan-June 2006, I will compare it with the NFP from that month.

ADP [162][342][133][178][122][368]
NFP [193][243][211][138][75][?]

We can see that the correlation isnt match exactly. Miss in April.

So We need more data to match it

This is a great thread to start!! I am not the best with any fundemental shart..lol! I guess anyone who has the same troubles should actively keep this thread ALIVE!

from FXIPA.....





....so are you saying you disagree with FXIPA, Double?



You too also disagree......

Oke More Information about NFP friday morning.

I got 3 forecast for it

1st is 175K, this publish before other data was published this week
2nd is 140K, I got from forexnews.com
3rd is 185K, this is bloomberg forecast

With the ADP and strong factory order, the range of speculation NFP data is more widely up to 300K

I dont know which forecast will i use as base for see the movement of dollars

Average forecast is around 20k currently. If more than 25k can be considered as strong data.

20K on top of the prior??

Oke, I got it
We need around 200K to meet the expectation.
I use the first number as lower brandmark (175K) and 200K as higher. Anything between them will consider steady but good for dollars.

Oke. The data come with 121K, far away from 175K and made dollars sell off.

I made 200+ pips in 3 pair

Tough Week

We have all major data for this week, make technical trader make extra caution putting their position.

Waiting for large breakout.