Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 01, 2009
Special Webinar on Forexpros: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading
Hosted by: Wayne McDonell of FXBootcamp
Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST
In this educational presentation you will learn how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner.
Click here to join the webinar.
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Fundamental News:
The U.S Department of Labor will release The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report tomorrow (Dec 2)
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrow's measure to stand at -148.00k, a substantial change from last month's -203.00k.
For more fundamental news, check out the Forexpros Economic Calendar
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Euro Dollar:
The Euro broke the support 1.5043 but it only reached 1.4970, without testing the important support area 1.4955-1.4924. And now, it is going back up, closing on almost the same levels that we were at yesterdays morning. Te price tried to break 1.4970 twice, yesterday, then in the Asian session, without succeeding in doing that. This indicate that this support is important, but we will adopt 1.4985 as support of the day. Where the resistance is found at the falling trendline from last weeks top 1.5143, and that line is currently at 1.5050. Breaking any of them would deliver the next move direction. Breaking 1.5050 will lead to a test of this years high 1.5143 once again, and may be 1.5200 after that. Breaking the support 1.4985 would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4924, and this is a crucial support, if broken we will target 1.4867.
Support:
1.4985: intraday support.
1.4924: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4867: important intraday support from last week.
Resistance:
1.5050: the falling trend line from 1.5143 (this years high and last weeks top).
1.5144: resistance area from 2008.
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USD/JPY:
Dollar-Yen broke through both the resistance & support without creating any major moves, except for nearing the first target 87.50 after breaking the resistance 87.00. the current rise is invited to show strength at Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, and if it succeeds in doing so, then a test of the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.33 is to be expected, and if this important resistance is also broken, the next target will be the top of that formation which is currently at 88.84. todays support is yesterdays resistance 87.00, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend after some rising bounces. This trend would target the rising trendline from last weeks bottom on the hourly chart, which is currently at 86.44, first, then yesterdays low 85.84. The trend is down, and the Yen strength is still expected, but we should be aware of the possibility of interventions by the Japanese government that would left this pair many steps up!
Support:
87.00: short-term support.
86.44: the rising trendline from Thursdays low.
85.84: yesterdays low.
Resistance:
87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term (for the move from 89.17 to 84.81).
88.33: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation.
88.84: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Full Version: Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 01/12/2009
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Forexpros Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Nov 30-Dec 4,2009
EU: ⢠Monday: Germany Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -3.9%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Tuesday: Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51, Forecast N/A), Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.7%, Forecast N/A). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 52, Forecast N/A), Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.1%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Wednesday: Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous -0.4%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -7.7%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: Euro-Zone PMI Services (Previous 53.2, Forecast N/A), France Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.5%, Forecast N/A), PMI Services (Previous 60.4, Forecast N/A). Germany PMI Services (Previous 51.5, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.7%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -3.6%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone GDP QoQ (Previous 0.4%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -4.1%, Forecast N/A). ECB Interest Rates (Previous 1.00%, Forecast N/A) & Trichet Monthly News Conference. US: ⢠Monday: Chicago PMI (Previous 54.2, Forecast 53). ⢠Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 55.7, Forecast 54.8 ) . ⢠Wednesday: Fed's Beige Book (Text Report). ⢠Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 466k, Forecast 488k). ISM Non-Manufacturing (Previous 50.6, Forecast 51.3). ⢠Friday: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -190K, Forecast -100K). Unemployment Rate (Previous 10.2%, Forecast 10.2%). Factory Orders (Previous 0.9%, Forecast 0.4%). JP: ⢠Monday: Housing Starts YoY (Previous -37.0%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: Capital Spending (Previous -21.7%, Forecast N/A). UK: ⢠Monday: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Previous -13, Forecast N/A). M4 Money Supply MoM (Previous 1.8%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous 11.0%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Tuesday: Nationwide House Price Index MoM (Previous 0.4%, Forecast 0.3) & YoY (Previous 2.0%, Forecast 2.4%). PMI Manufacturing (Previous 53.7, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: PMI Services (Previous 56.9, Forecast N/A). AU: ⢠Monday: New Home Sales MoM (Previous -4.5%, Forecast N/A), Private Sector Credit (Previous 1.7%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Tuesday: Building Approvals MoM (Previous 2.7%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous 11.7%, Forecast N/A). RBA CASH TARGET (Previous 3.50%, Forecast 3.75%). ⢠Thursday: Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Forecast N/A). CA (CAD/USD): ⢠Monday: GDP MoM (Previous -0.1%, Forecast N/A) & QoQ (Previous -3.4%, Forecast 1.0%). ⢠Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.6%, Forecast N/A), Net Change in Employment (Previous -43.2K, Forecast N/A). Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Previous 61.2, Forecast N/A). --- Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 2, 2009
Special Event Tomorrow on Forexpros.com: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading with Wayne McDonell Start: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST/ 16:00 GMT Forexpros is proud to host a Webinar featuring Wayne McDonell, one of today's top experts on Forex Trading, who will be speaking on our website this Thursday (Dec 3). In his educational presentation, Wayne will teach how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner. Click here to join this exciting lecture. Attendance is FREE. About Wayne: Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in real-time. --- Interest Rate Decision The EU Central Bank will announce the new monthly short term interest rate tomorrow (Dec 2nd). The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts expect tomorrow's interest rate to remain stable at 1.00%. For more on interest rates see Forexpros. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance 1.5050 but settled for 1.5116 only, without reaching the first suggested target 1.5144. This morning it started to fall and get closer little by little to the first important trendline which is currently at 1.5058. We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target & an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at 1.5101, and only breaking it would improve the âexhaustedâ technical outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be 1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5101 exhaustion will lead this pair downwards to test several support levels and important trendlines. Support: ⢠1.5058: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart. ⢠1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term. ⢠1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term. Resistance: ⢠1.5101: important intraday resistance from yesterday. ⢠1.5200: resistance area from 2008. ⢠1.5260: resistance area from 2008. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen stopped with astonishing accuracy at Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, as yesterdayâs high was 87.51! Stopping at Fibonacci resistance levels indicates that the trend is still down. This makes us expect that the whole up-move from 84.81 is only a correction, that will ends once we break the rising trend channel, and then the downtrend will come back to search for new lows. Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50 is still the most important resistance, and if price succeeds in breaking it, then a test of the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.28 is to be expected, and if this important resistance is also broken, the next target will be the top of that formation which is currently at 88.72. todayâs support is yesterdayâs 86.84, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend after some rising bounces. That would target the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weekâs bottom on the hourly chart, which is currently at 85.84, and if broken we will test 84.81. Fibonacci says the trend is down, and the Yen strength is still expected, but we should be aware of the possibility of interventions by the Japanese government that would left this pair many steps up! Support: ⢠86.84: short-term support. ⢠85.84: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom. ⢠86.44: last weekâs low. Resistance: ⢠87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term (for the move from 89.17 to 84.81). ⢠88.28: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation. ⢠88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation. --- Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 3, 2009
Special Event Today on Forexpros.com: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading with Wayne McDonell Start: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST/ 16:00 GMT Forexpros is proud to host a Webinar featuring Wayne McDonell, one of today's top experts on Forex Trading, who will be speaking on our website this Thursday (Dec 3). In his educational presentation, Wayne will teach how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner. Click here to join this exciting lecture. Attendance is FREE. About Wayne: Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in real-time. --- Unemployment Rate Report The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly Unemployment Rate report tomorrow (Dec 4). The report is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD. Analysts predict tomorrow’s rate to remain stable at 10.20%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro moved in a tight range without any meaningful moves technically. That kept the Euro above the rising trendline from 1.4827. We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target & an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at 1.5143, and only breaking it would improve the “exhausted” technical outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be 1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5143 exhaustion will lead this pair downwards to test several support levels and important trendlines. Support: • 1.5072: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart. • 1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term. • 1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term. Resistance: • 1.5143: November 25th top. • 1.5200: resistance area from 2008. • 1.5260: resistance area from 2008. --- USD/JPY In spite of dropping 100 pips from Fibonacci resistance at 87.50, the price came back to break it, and it is approaching 88 this morning. We might hear later that this rise was caused by a series of small or “mild” interventions, in order to weaken the Yen. The matter of intervention continue to be important in these areas, and since the Japanese government do not announce that they did for w a while after the intervention, there is no way to predict when and where they are going to do it. Technically speaking, the price is heading now towards the top of the channel that is rising from last week’s bottom. This top is at 88.18, and it is resistance of the day. If broken the Dollar will continue to show strength, and will target the top of the supposed wedge formation at 88.58, and may be then we will see a test of November 23rd top 89.17. Support is provided by the rising trendline from this week’s low, which is currently at 87.29, breaking it would target 86.72 & 86.28. Support: • 87.29: the rising trendline from Monday’s low. • 86.72: intraday top from last week. • 86.28: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom. Resistance: • 88.18: the top of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom. • 88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation. • 89.17: Nov 23rd high. --- Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros. For more Forex news go to Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Bank failure tally reaches 128
Regulators shutter Cleveland-based AmTrust Bank and three small Georgia banks. Closures will cost the FDIC $2.285 billion.
President Obama will propose using $200 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to support creating jobs, White House officials confirmed Monday.
The president, in an economic speech before the Brookings Institution on Tuesday, will argue that the money would be well spent by funding projects to build bridges and roads, weatherize homes, and provide other assistance for small businesses as well as the unemployed. Congress in October 2008 authorized President George W. Bush's plan for $700 billion for TARP to bail out the nation's largest banks and financial institutions. But the banks have been repaying their loans faster than expected, so the government finds itself with untapped TARP money that it potentially could use for other domestic programs.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 8, 2009
Free Webinar On Forexpros: Using Time and Patterns to Pinpoint Entry and Exit Points Hosted by: Raghee Horner of Auto Chartist Thu, Dec 10, 2009, 08:00 EST/13:00 GMT Where are the currency markets headed? How can I take advantage of time and expected pip movement to identify opportunities? How to filter out and confirm set ups? What strategies can I employ to limit risk? Join Raghee Horner, a best-selling author and professional trader with over 15 years experience, as she applies unique trading methodology to helping you trade your views in the forex market. Raghee will also help you to identify the market cycle and learn to set up and use her 34ema Wave allowing you to effectively position yourself in the markets. Click Here To Join Free --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release its decision on short term interest rate Tomorrow (Dec 9). The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD. Analysts forecast Tomorrow's rate to remain stable at 2.50%. --- Euro Dollar Falling 5 waves & an awaited upward correction The Euro broke the support 1.4850 and successfully reached the first target 1.4760, stopping just 5 pips below it, and bouncing back more than 130 pips. We can see a very clear set of 5 waves falling from 1.5139 (as illustrated on the attached chart), that match all of Elliott waves rules. And if our wave count is correct, that means 2 things: first the first phase of the falling trend from 1.5139 is over, and that calls for an upward correction. And the second is that after that upward correction that matches the falling move, the falling trend will resume to new lows below 1.4755! Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4806, and if broken the odds of falling below yesterdays low will be enormous. Our targets for such a drop are 1.4724 & 1.4649. Whereas the resistance is at 1.4844, and breaking it would mean launching an upward correction that ideally targets 1.4947 & 1.4992. Support: 1.4806: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term. 1.4724: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.4045. 1.4649: Oct 7th low. Resistance: 1.4896: intraday resistance. 1.4947: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139 1.4992: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5139 --- USDJPY Standing on the edge! As we expected in yesterdays report when we said a falling correction is the most logical expectation after a move of the size we seen on Friday, Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.52 and fell to reach 88.75 this morning. It seems that we are standing on an important support, because we have actually touched the trendline rising from 85.07. That is why we will consider this line as the most important support of the day, which is currently at 88.75, and we are just pips above it. If this line is broken, the falling correction will go on and target 88.33 first, and then the important Fibonacci 50% support for the whole rise from 84.81at 87.78. But, if price manage to survive the touch of this line, it will be ready for another jump that is expected to break short-term resistance 89.13 and target 89.75 first, and then November 12th top 90.59. Support: 88.75: the rising trendline from 85.07 on the hourly chart. 88.33: previous well known support/resistance area. 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. Resistance: 89.13: intraday resistance on the hourly chart. 89.75: Fibonacci 50% for short-term. 90.59: Nov 12th high. Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 08-Dec 11,2009
EU: Monday: Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Previous -7, Forecast N/A). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast 0.8%). & YoY (Previous -13.1%, Forecast -6.2%). Tuesday: Bank of France Business Sentiment (Previous 95.0, Forecast N/A). Germany Industrial Production MoM (Previous 2.7%, Forecast 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.2%). Wednesday: Germany Trade Balance (Previous 10.6B, Forecast 10.7B). Germany Current Account (Previous 9.4B, Forecast 9.4B). Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous -0.2%, Forecast -0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.3%). Thursday: France Industrial Production MoM (Previous -1.5%, Forecast 0.6%) & YoY (Previous -10.4%, Forecast -6.7%) US: Wednesday: Wholesale Inventories (Previous -0.9%, Forecast -0.5%). Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -36.5B, Forecast -37.0B), Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 457K, Forecast 465K). Friday: Retail Sales (Previous 1.4%, Forecast 0.6%), Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.5%). University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 67.4, Forecast 68.5). Business Inventories (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.2%). JP: Monday: Official Reserve Assets (Previous 1056.88B, Forecast N/A), Current Account (Previous 1567.9B, Forecast 1483.2B). Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 599.2B, Forecast 862.3B). Bank Lending (Previous -1.5%, Forecast N/A), Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Previous 40.9, Forecast 40.0) & Outlook (Previous 42.8, Forecast N/A). Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Forecast 0.7%A), & YoY (Previous 4.8%, Forecast 2.8%). Thursday: Machine Orders MoM (Previous 10.5%, Forecast -4.5%) & YoY (Previous -22.0%, Forecast -21.0%). Friday: Consumer Confidence (Previous 40.8, Forecast N/A). UK: Tuesday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.6%, Forecast 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -10.3%, Forecast -7.6%). Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous -3469M, Forecast -3175M). Thursday: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Forecast 0.50%) Friday: PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 1.7%, Forecast 2.9%). AU: Monday: AiG Perf of Construction Index (Previous 50.9, Forecast N/A). Tuesday: Current Account (Previous -13347M, Forecast -16650M). Wednesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Previous -2.5%, Forecast N/A). Trade Balance (Previous -1849M, Forecast -1805M). Thursday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.8%, Forecast 5.9%). Employment Change (Previous 24.5K, Forecast 5.0K). CA: Monday: Building Permits (Previous 1.6%, Forecast 1.0%). Tuesday: Bank of Canada Rate (Previous 0.25%, Forecast 0.25%). Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -0.9B, Forecast -0.7B) Fundamental Forex Weekly Outlook by Forexpros Stay updated with all events relevant to trading with the Forexpros Economic Calendar --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 9, 2009
Free Webinar On Forexpros: Using Time and Patterns to Pinpoint Entry and Exit Points Hosted by: Raghee Horner of Auto Chartist Thu, Dec 10, 2009, 08:00 EST/13:00 GMT Where are the currency markets headed? How can I take advantage of time and expected pip movement to identify opportunities? How to filter out and confirm set ups? What strategies can I employ to limit risk? Join Raghee Horner, a best-selling author and professional trader with over 15 years experience, as she applies unique trading methodology to helping you trade your views in the forex market. Raghee will also help you to identify the market cycle and learn to set up and use her 34ema Wave allowing you to effectively position yourself in the markets. Click Here To Join Free --- Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments. Export data gives a reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD. Analysts expect tomorrow's Index to remain stable since last month, indicating a defacit of 36.50 Billions Dollars. --- Euro Dollar The Euro slightly surpassed the resistance 1.4844 before completely surrendering to the downtrend. It dropped and successfully reached the first target 1.4724, and came somehow close to the second target 1.4649 (the low until this very moment is 1.4667). In spite of this big drop, we still have not made it yet to Fibonacci 38.2% for the long term (for the rise from 1.3747) at 1.4610. Short-term support is at 1.4649, and breaking it would mean we will be targeting the above mentioned Fibonacci level first at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the Asian session high 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well. Support: ⢠1.4649: Oct 7th low. ⢠1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374). ⢠1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows. Resistance: ⢠1.4734: Asian session high. ⢠1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139 ⢠1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139 --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the rising trendline from 85.07 at 88.75 and successfully reached the first target 88.33. Breaking this line indicates there is a continuation of the downside pressures, that emerged after Fridayâs top, and if it continues, we will break todayâs support which is yesterdayâs low 88.16, and would target Fibonacci 50% at 87.78 first, and may be the most important support for the time being : Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up-move from 84.81 at 87.08. But as we can see from the attached chart, the drop stopped at the moving average SMA100, which could provide a chance for a bounce back up, in what could be (at least) a correction for the drop from Fridayâs top. In this case the price will break intraday resistance at 88.48, and would ideally target the area that is bordered by Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 89.15 & Fibonacci 61.8% at 89.76. Support: ⢠88.16: yesterdayâs low. ⢠87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. ⢠87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. Resistance: ⢠88.48: intraday resistance. ⢠89.15: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term. ⢠89.76: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For a comprehensive directory of Forex brokers see Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 10, 2009
Free Webinar On Forexpros TODAY: Using Time and Patterns to Pinpoint Entry and Exit Points Hosted by: Raghee Horner of Auto Chartist Thu, Dec 10, 2009, 08:00 EST/13:00 GMT Where are the currency markets headed? How can I take advantage of time and expected pip movement to identify opportunities? How to filter out and confirm set ups? What strategies can I employ to limit risk? Join Raghee Horner, a best-selling author and professional trader with over 15 years experience, as she applies unique trading methodology to helping you trade your views in the forex market. Raghee will also help you to identify the market cycle and learn to set up and use her 34ema Wave allowing you to effectively position yourself in the markets. Click Here To Join Free --- Fundamental Analysis: US Census Bureau The US Census Bureau will release the Core Retail Sales report tomorrow (Dec 11). The report is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy . Analysts predict tomorrow's report to indicate a rate of 0.60%, an increase form last month's rate of 0.20%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 without being able to advance, but at the same time, it did not break or approach the support 1.4649. It seems that the fluctuation we have seen has started building a small triangle pattern, with its limits at 1.4734 & 1.4681, and breaking any of these limits is what will set the direction for the short-term. If we break support at 1.4681 we will target Fibonacci 38.2% (for the rise from 1.3747) which is now closer than ever at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the supposed triangle pattern limit 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well. Support: ⢠1.4681: the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern. ⢠1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374). ⢠1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows. Resistance: ⢠1.4734: the upper limit for the supposed triangle pattern. ⢠1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139. ⢠1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.16 and successfully reached the first suggested target 87.78, but stayed relatively far from the second target, and the most important support for now 87.08. The importance of 87.08 will carry on for the rest of the week, since it is Fibonacci 61.8% support for the rise from 84.81. As we can see from the attached chart, the rising move during the Asian session has bumped into the previously broken trendline. And for the technical outlook for the Dollar, we should surpass this line which is currently at 88.25. Therefore, we should wait for a break of the support or resistance before we can predict the direction of short-term. If we break the resistance 88.25 this pair can surprise some by reaching areas above 89 such as 89.17 or 89.70. on the other hand, if the most important support for now 87.08 is broken, the downtrend will continue with confidence, and the next set of targets will be 86.29 & 85.71. Support: ⢠87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. ⢠86.29: important intraday level on hourly chart. ⢠85.71: important intraday level on hourly chart. Resistance: ⢠88.25: broken trendline. ⢠89.17: important intraday level on hourly chart. ⢠89.70: important intraday level on hourly chart. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For real time Forex charts see Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Dollar Rally Continue?
We went right to the point on Tuesday where resistance would kick in, 1.4770-1.4780, and it went right to 1.4780 but could not get above. This has set up a bearish formation on the short term charts. Unless that resistance area is taken out, and ultimately 1.4900, the eur/usd is in correction. That of course does not mean there can't be a move higher...there can, and it may still fall short of 1.4900. Movement above 1.4780 is likely to target 1.4820, 1.4840 (both of these are minor resistance points) and if it continues then 1.4860. Movement above this point will run at the former swing highs at 1.4890-1.4900. Short-term trend is down and first minor support comes in at 1.4720 with a drop below targeting 1.4700. No real confirmation of a further decline comes until the rate moves below 1.4660. This would target 1.4625 followed by 1.4600-1.4580. 1.4560 and 1.4530 provide support beyond if the pair continues to fall. Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims due of the US at 13:30 GMT. Forex trading analysis written by Cory Mitchell, CMT for Forexpros.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 14, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Trading Platforms- Why do they Matter? Expert: Amy Walsh When: Tue, Dec 15, 2009, 10:00 EST This webinar takes a look at the UFX Bank trading platform with special emphasis on how to execute trades simply and immediately. After all a trader is only as good as the trading platform he's using. Amy will discuss how UFX Bank's support and training resources will suit every client from the very beginner to the practiced professional. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: ZEW Economic Sentiment Report German traders await publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Report, which will be released tomorrow (Dec 14). The report determines sentiment among German institutional investors, with analysts expecting a slight increase from last month's 50.10 to 50.20. The Economic Sentiment Report is a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. --- Euro Dollar The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 but stopped very close to Wednesdayâs high, before reversing, and breaking the support 1.4692, and then reaching the first suggested target 1.4610. The rising trendline from Tuesdayâs low (and the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from 1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4826. As for the support it is at 1.4656 and breaking it would mean that the rising correction from Fridayâs low is probably over, and that would target 1.4597 and then 1.4510. Support: ⢠1.4656: rising trendline on the intraday charts. ⢠1.4597: important intraday low from Friday. ⢠1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows. Resistance: ⢠1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday. ⢠1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139. ⢠1.4826: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.05 and successfully reached the first target 89.45, then came close to 90, settling for 89.79. this morning the price dropped to 88.36 again, to find the trendline that we introduced in the past few days providing it with support. That was the 4th time the price encountered this line, which clearly means it deserves our attention. That is why we will consider it as support of the day, and it is currently running at 88.43. If itâs broken, the drop from 89.79 will continue and the next pair of targets will be Fibonacci support levels at 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance, it is provided by the falling trendline from 89.79 on the intraday charts, which is currently at 88.87. And if broken, another 89.45 visit will be expected, and if this is also broken, we will jump to 90.08 at least. Support: ⢠88.43: a trendline that touched price 4 times. ⢠87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. ⢠87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. Resistance: ⢠88.87: the falling trendline from Fridayâs top on the intraday charts. ⢠89.45: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term. ⢠90.08: hourly resistance. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 15, 2009
Free webinar TODAY on Forexpros - Trading Platforms- Why do they Matter? Expert: Amy Walsh When: Tue, Dec 15, 2009, 10:00 EST This webinar takes a look at the UFX Bank trading platform with special emphasis on how to execute trades simply and immediately. After all a trader is only as good as the trading platform he's using. Amy will discuss how UFX Bank's support and training resources will suit every client from the very beginner to the practiced professional. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tommorow (Dec 16) in the US. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts forecast that the interest rate will remain at 0.25%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro surpassed the support 1.4656, and settled for 1.4616, but it did nopt test or even come close to the most important resistance 1.4701. The rising trend line from Tuesdays low (and the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from 1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4862. As for the support it is at 1.4621 and breaking it would mean that the rising correction from Fridays low is probably over, and that would target 1.4566 and then 1.4510. Support: 1.4621: intraday support from last week. 1.4597: a previous well known support/resistance area. 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows. Resistance: 1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday. 1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139. 1.4862: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen slightly pierced through both the support & resistance specified in yesterdays reports, with a few points in both cases, without being able to generate a real break. Currently we see USDJPY between two lines: the falling trend line from 90.75 (which is currently at 89.28), and the rising trend line from 84.81 (which is currently at 88.59). And since we have two descending tops at 90.75 & 89.79, and two ascending bottoms at 84.81 & 87.35 (which means lack of direction), it is recommended that we do not adopt any direction prior to a break, and it is wise to wait for one of them to break. If we break the support 88.59 , the drop coming from 89.79 will resume & the next set of targets would be Fibonacci support levels 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance 89.28, a new visit to areas above 90 would be expected, where the targets 90.08 & 90.90 will await. Support: 88.59: the rising trend line from 84.81. 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. Resistance: 89.28: the falling trend line from 90.75 on the hourly chart. 90.08: hourly resistance. 90.90: previous well known support/resistance area. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 14-18
EU: ⢠Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%). ⢠Tuesday: France Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous -0.2%, Forecast 0.4%). Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 51.1, Forecast 50.0), ZEW Survey Current Situation (Previous -65.6, Forecast -60.1). ⢠Wednesday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 54.4, Forecast 54.8) & PMI Services (Previous 60.9, Forecast 60.0). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 52.4, Forecast 52.6) & PMI Services (Previous 51.4, Forecast 51.9). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.2, Forecast 51.5) & PMI Services (Previous 53.0, Forecast 53.2). Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.6%). ⢠Friday: Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous -7.6%, Forecast -5.9%). France Business Confidence Indicator (Previous 89, Forecast 91). Germany IFO - Business Climate (Previous 93.9, Forecast 94.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous 89.1, Forecast 90.0), IFO â Expectations (Previous 98.9, Forecast 99.0). Euro-Zone Current Account (Previous 3.7B, Forecast 5.8B). US: ⢠Tuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.8%) & YoY (Previous -1.9%, Forecast 1.7%). Core Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous -0.6%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.9%). Industrial Production (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.5%), Capacity Utilization (Previous 70.7%, Forecast 71.1%). ⢠Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.4%) & YoY (Previous -0.2%, Forecast 1.8%). Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 1.7%, Forecast 1.8%). Current Account (Previous -98.8B, Forecast -106.0B), Housing Starts (Previous 529K, Forecast 575K), Building Permits (Previous 552K, Forecast 570K), Fed Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Forecast 0.25%). ⢠Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 474K, Forecast 466K), Leading Indicators (Previous 0.3%%, Forecast 0.7%), Philadelphia Fed. (Previous 16.7, Forecast 15.8), Bernanke Confirmation Vote Held in Senate Banking Committee. JP: ⢠Monday: Tankan Manufacturers Index (Previous -33, Forecast -27). Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -15.1%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Wednesday: Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Previous -0.5%, Forecast 0.5%). Machine Tool Orders YoY (Previous -8.6%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: Leading Index CI (Previous 89.7, Forecast N/A). ⢠Friday: BOJ Target Rate (Previous 0.1%, Forecast N/A). UK: ⢠Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Forecast 1.8%). ⢠Wednesday: Jobless Claims Change (Previous 12.9K, Forecast 12.5K), ILO Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.8%, Forecast 7.9%). ⢠Thursday: Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.4%, Forecast 0.5%) & YoY (Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.7%). Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Text Report). AU: ⢠Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board December Minutes (Text Report). ⢠Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast N/A). Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.4%) & YoY (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.7%). ⢠Thursday: New Home Sales (Previous -6.0%, Forecast N/A). CA: ⢠Tuesday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 0.7%, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous -0.1%, Forecast 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.8%). Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 1.8%, Forecast 1.2%). ⢠Friday: Wholesale Sales (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.1%) --- Fundamental analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 16, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules Expert: Sam Seiden When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets. This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Commodities Don't know what's happening now with the Gold and the Crude Oil? Stay on top of commodities prices with a new Free Real Time Streaming Commodities Futures Prices section. The quotes are available for a variety of futures such as Gold, Crude Oil, Silver, Copper, Brent and many more. All commodities are organized in a user friendly layout in a real time streamer. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support 1.4621 and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.4566 & 1.4510. And then spent the time holding above 1.45, and that could lead to a correction of the last 5 waves down from 1.4683. If short-term resistance 1.4563 is broken, 1.4614 would be an ideal target for this correction, and at the same time the most important resistance. Reaching it could provide a good sell opportunity. But, if its broken, the price will gain enough strength to target 1.4667. As for the support, it is provided by the rising trend line from yesterdayâs low on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4535. If broken, we will target the important 1.4445 (the next important stop), and then 1.4405. Support: ⢠1.4535: the rising trend line from yesterdayâs low on intraday charts. ⢠1.4445: Fibonacci 50% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143). ⢠1.4505: Aug 27th high. Resistance: ⢠1.4563: intraday resistance. ⢠1.4614: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance. ⢠1.4667: previous well known support/resistance area. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.28, and jumped close to the 90 level & the suggested target (yesterdayâs high 89.93). With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.21. If it succeeds in doing this, the odds will favor more upside movement, that would break short-term resistance 89.72, and head to areas above yesterdayâs high, where the same suggested targets from yesterdayâs report (90.08 & 90.90) will await. But if the opposite to what is expected happened (if we break the support 89.21) the price will resume falling, targeting the rising trend line from 84.81 & the SMA100, and both of them at 88.83, and if this important support if broken, we will target 87.78. Support: ⢠89.21: the trend line that was broken yesterday. ⢠88.83: the rising trend line from 84.81, and the SMA100. ⢠87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. Resistance: ⢠89.72: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance. ⢠90.08: hourly resistance. ⢠90.90: previous well known support/resistance area. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 17, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules Expert: Sam Seiden When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets. This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts forecast a reading of 93.90, down from 94.50. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke both the support & resistance of yeserday’s report, before choosing the downward road reaching both suggested targets 1.4445 & 1.4405. With that, the long-term Fibonacci 50% support (1.4445) was broken, and we expect to see Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4280, and we might see it before the weekend. Short-term resistance is at 1.4452, and breaking it is the key to reach and test the most important resistance for short-term 1.4504. The importance of this resistance comes from being Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and staying below it, would indicate that the rising move from yesterday’s low is just a short-term correction, while breaking it would means it is bigger than that, and would target 1.4574 as a first stop on the road to higher targets. Short-term support is at 1.4405 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 1.4354 first, and then the important 1.4280. Support: • 1.4405: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.4354: Aug 27th low. • 1.4445: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143). Resistance: • 1.4452: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term. • 1.4504: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance. • 1.4574: intraday resistance from yesterday. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.72 and reached the first target 90.08 successfully. This continuation in rising was a result of breaking the falling trend line from 90.75. With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.13. And before that, we have the short-term support at 89.87, breaking it is the key to a retest of the broken line, targeting 89.13, and if this one is broken we could see a sharp drop to the important Fibonacci support 87.87. On theother hand, the resistance 90.40 is resistance of the day, and breaking it will indicate ability to continue going up, targeting the well known 90.90 first, and then November 4th top 91.31. Support: • 89.87: short-term support. • 89.13: the retest level of the broken trend line. • 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75. ou Resistance: • 90.40: previous well known support/resistance area. • 90.90: previous well known support/resistance area. • 91.31: Nov 4th top. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Stocks finished lower Thursday after Greece received another credit downgrade and the dollar surged against the euro to its highest level since September. The greenback was also supported by the Federal Reserve's comments from the previous day, when the central bank left interest rates unchanged near zero and said economic weakness will persist.
Philip Isherwood, equities strategist at Evolution Strategies in London, said that Wall Street appeared to be headed for a modest rally, primarily on "an absence of bad news," with no significant market movers. But trading could be volatile since Friday is also quadruple witching -- a day when stock index futures, stock index options, single stock futures and stock options all expire. Isherwood added that the markets were "thinned out" and "pretty lifeless" ahead of the Christmas holiday, as many traders have closed their books for 2009. "Most people have had their year, good and bad, and they're sitting on their hands," he said.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 21, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros TODAY - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules Expert: Sam Seiden When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets. This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: GDP Tomorrow, Dec 22, the Gross Domestic Product will be published in the UK, USA and New Zealand. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency. Analysts forecast a reading of -0.30% for the GDP, up from -0.10% and a reading of 2.80% for the USD, representing no change. The NZD is expected to read 0.10%, down from 0.40%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in Fridays report 1.4346, and successfully reached the first target 1.4280. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4410 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridays low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4303 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4205 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4140. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4584. Support: 1.4303: Thursdays low. 1.4205: Aug 26th low. 1.4140: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart. Resistance: 1.4410: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. 1.4502: Dec 15th low. 1.4584: Dec 11th low. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in Fridays report 89.80, and successfully reached both targets 90.40 & 90.90 with amazing accuracy (Fridays high 90.89). We see that the drop that followed to 90.22 is just a short-term correction, and that the advance will carry on after we are done with it to areas above 90.90. We build this opinion on our wave count for the short-term which shows that we are in wave 4 of 5 rising waves that started at 88.91 on Thursday. If our wave count turns out to be right, we will not break the support 89.86, the price will start rising breaking short-term resistance 90.46, and targeting 91.30 first, and may be 91.93 afterwards. If a surprise happens and we break 89.86 the suggested wave count will be invalid, and the price will drop targeting the rising trend line from 85.84 which is currently at 89.17, and may be 88.70. Support: 89.86: Fibonacci 61.8% for wave 3 according to our short-term wave count. 89.17: the rising trend line from 85.84. 88.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.89. Resistance: 90.46: the falling trend line from Fridays top on intraday charts. 91.30: Nov 4th high. 91.93: Sep 3rd low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for more Forex Quotes. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 22, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II Expert: Dan Cook When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Monetary Policy Committee The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes will be published tomorrow (Dec 23). The minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâs report 1.4303, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, and settled for closing on Fridayâs low 1.4260, as yesterdayâs low was 1.4264. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4357 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridayâs low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4260 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4176 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4085. A break of todayâs most important resistance 1.4357 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4596. Support: ⢠1.4260: Fridayâs low. ⢠1.4176: Sep 1st low. ⢠1.4085: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart. Resistance: ⢠1.4357: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. ⢠1.4502: Dec 15th low. ⢠1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4260. --- USD/JPY Exactly as we have expected, the drop to 90.22 was just a short-term corrective drop, and the price resumed rising short after, to areas above 90.90 as we said in yesterdayâs report. Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in yesterdayâs report 90.46 and successfully reached the first suggested target 91.30. But, has trouble started for this rising move? We can see on the attached chart that the price hardly reached any area above the moving average SMA100, and stopped close to the trend line. Thus, we expect the Dollar to settle for the previously harvested gains, and to start going down from the current levels. Short-term resistance is 91.30, and breaking it would target 91.93 first, and then the important 92.31. But what is expected is the opposite of that: the resistance should hold, and the price should start dropping toward short-term support 90.99, and if we break it we will head towards 90.32 and then 89.50. Support: ⢠90.99: intraday support. ⢠90.32: previous important intraday top. ⢠89.50: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.46. Resistance: ⢠91.30: Nov 4th high. ⢠91.93: Sep 3rd low. ⢠92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex charts and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 21-24
EU: ⢠Tuesday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Previous 3.7, Forecast 3.5), France Producer Prices MoM (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.1%) & YoY (Previous -6.6%, Forecast -4.7%). ⢠Wednesday: Germany Import Price Index MoM (Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.3%) & YoY (Previous -8.1%, Forecast -5.2%), France Consumer Spending MoM (Previous 1.1%, Forecast 0.5%) & YoY (Previous 3.5%, Forecast 3.3%) US: ⢠Monday: Chicago Fed (Previous -1.08, Forecast N/A). ⢠Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%), Personal Consumption (Previous 2.9%, Forecast 2.9%), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous 1, Forecast 4), House Price Index MoM (Previous 0.0%, Forecast N/A), Existing Home Sales MoM (Previous 10.1%, Forecast 2.5%). ⢠Wednesday: Personal Income (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.5%), Personal Spending (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.7%), University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 73.4, Forecast 74.0), New Home Sales MoM (Previous 6.2%, Forecast 1.9%). ⢠Thursday: Durable Goods Orders (Previous -0.6%, Forecast 0.5%), Durables Ex Transportation (Previous -1.3%, Forecast 1.0%), Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 480K, Forecast 470K). JP: ⢠Monday: Trade Balance (Previous 807.1B, Forecast 300.0B), All Industry Activity Index MoM (Previous -0.6%, Forecast 1.0%), ⢠Tuesday: Small Business Confidence (Previous 43, Forecast N/A). ⢠Thursday: BOJ Minutes (Text report). ⢠Friday: Jobless Rate (Previous 5.1%, Forecast 5.2%), Tokyo CPI YoY (Previous -2.2%, Forecast -2.0%), Tokyo CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.3%, Forecast -1.4%), National CPI YoY (Previous -2.5%, Forecast -2.0%), National CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.1%, Forecast -1.1%), Housing Starts YoY (Previous -27.1%, Forecast -23.0%). UK: ⢠Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%) & YoY (Previous -5.1%, Forecast -4.9%), Current Account (Previous -11.4B, Forecast -8.2B). ⢠Wednesday: Bank of England Minutes (Text report). AU: ⢠Tuesday: Conference Board Leading Index (Previous 0.3%, Forecast N/A). CA: ⢠Monday: Retail Sales MoM (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 0.7%), Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Previous 1.1%, Forecast 0.2%). ⢠Wednesday: GDP MoM (Previous 0.4%, Forecast 0.3%). --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 23, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II Expert: Dan Cook When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders Traders await the announcement of the Core Durable Goods Orders tomorrow (Dec. 24). The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends. Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts forecast a reading of 1.00%, up from the previous reading of -1.30%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.4260, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as yesterdays low was 1.4216. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4298 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridays low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4153 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4030. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4298 would cause a jump to 1.4446, and then to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596. Support: 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term. 1.4153: Jul 2nd high. 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low. Resistance: 1.4298: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. 1.4446: Aug 5th high. 1.4502: Dec 15th low. --- USD/JPY In opposition to our expectations, Dollar-Yen broke 91.30, penetrating through the moving average SMA100, and breaking the top of the channel that we introduced. This break, even though it is in an opposite direction of our short-term technical outlook, should not be ignored. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the moving average SMA100 is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55. Support: 90.90: intraday support. 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85. 89.55: previous important intraday low. Resistance: 91.78: Jul 8th low. 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops. 93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex education and trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 24, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II Expert: Dan Cook When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- A New Real Time Interest Rates and Bonds Section Want to know what is happening now with Bonds around the globe? Stay on top of Interest Rates and Bonds with a new Free Real Time Streaming Financial Futures Rates section. The quotes are available for U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds and government bonds from the U.K., Germany, Japan and Australia. They are all organized in a user friendly layout in a real time streamer. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4298, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as the high in the past 24 hours was 1.4365, a few pips below short term resistance 1.4371. This morning the price came back close to this resistance that we consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it is not expected after the radical change in the technical outlook that happened after breaking 1.4298. But if it happens it would target 1.4153 and then 1.4030. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4371 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596. Support: 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term. 1.4153: Jul 2nd high. 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low. Resistance: 1.4371: Mondays high, and the resistance that the price tried to break twice in the past 24 hours. 1.4502: Dec 15th low. 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260). --- USD/JPY Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.06 where the moving average SMA100 & the retest level for the broken channel are waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55. Support: 91.06: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart, and the retest level for the broken channel. 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85. 89.55: previous important intraday low. Resistance: 91.78: Jul 8th low. 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops. 93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 28, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros tomorrow - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II Expert: Dan Cook When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: CB Consumer Confidence The CB Consumer Confidence report will be published tomorrow (Dec 29). The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 49.50, down from the previous 53.00. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in Thursdays report 1.4371, but settled for a test of the resistance 1.4410 (Thursdays high was 1.4416). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity after breaking the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but failure at 1.4410 might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness. And since it is an important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is Thursdays resistance 1.4371, and if this important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292 (important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596. Support: 1.4371: Thursdays resistance that became todays short term support. 1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to the rising trend line from last weeks low on intraday charts. 1.4233: important intraday support from last week. Resistance: 1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it on Thursday. 1.4502: Dec 15th low. 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260). --- USD/JPY Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the retest level for the broken channel is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55. Support: 90.90: the retest level for the broken channel. 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85. 89.55: previous important intraday low. Resistance: 91.78: Jul 8th low. 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops. 93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for information on Central Banks and trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 29, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros TODAY - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II Expert: Dan Cook When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: KOF Leading Indicators Traders of CHF await the publication of the KOF Leading Indicators tomorrow (Dec 30). The KoF Leading Indicators Index determines overall economic health by combining 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing. It indicates the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Analysts predict a reading of 1.62, down from the previous 1.80. --- Euro Dollar The Euro came back to test the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4410 for the second time, after testing it previously on Thursday. But it stopped accurately at this level (yesterdays high was 1.4412). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity after breaking the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but failure at 1.4410 might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness. And since it is an important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is Thursdays resistance 1.4371, and if this important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292 (important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596. Support: 1.4371: Thursdays resistance that became todays short term support. 1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to the rising trend line from last weeks low on intraday charts. 1.4233: important intraday support from last week. Resistance: 1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it twice on Thursday, and then again yesterday. 1.4502: Dec 15th low. 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260). --- USD/JPY Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (the high until the moment of preparing the report is 91.76), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55. Support: 90.90: the rising trend line from 84.81. 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85. 89.55: previous important intraday low. Resistance: 91.78: Jul 8th low. 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops. 93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex fund managers and trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 30, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Chicago PMI The Chicago PMI will be published tomorrow (Dec 31). The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the US ISM and usually has an impressive correlation with it. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 56.10, up from the previous 55.20. --- Euro Dollar Although it surpassed 1.4410, the Euro was unable to maintain its gains, and gave them up, returning to 1.43, where there is a critical support at 1.4308. The price reached 1.4304 before bouncing more than 50 pips until this moment. The importance of 1.4308 is that it is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.4216 to yesterdayâs top at 1.4456, and breaking it would mean that the price will come back to test the falling channel that was broken last week (which is currently below 1.41) at a later time. But the targets for the upcoming hours for this break will be 1.4233 & 1.4176. Short-term resistance is at 1.4380, and breaking it would mean that the technical outlook for the short-term would be positive and the targets for this break would be 1.4480 & 1.4536. Support: ⢠1.4308: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4216 to 1.4456. ⢠1.4233: important intraday support from last week. ⢠1.4176: Sep 1st low. Resistance: ⢠1.4380: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term & a well known previous resistance. ⢠1.4480: Oct 2nd low. ⢠1.4536: a well known previous support/resistance area. --- USD/JPY Finally, the Dollar-Yen is trading above 91.78! As it reached 92 this morning, and stopped at 92.24. Thus, we think that a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 is only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.12 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.18, and if broken we are to see 89.55. Support: ⢠91.12: the rising trend line from 84.81. ⢠90.18: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24. ⢠89.55: previous important intraday low. Resistance: ⢠92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops. ⢠93.08: Jul 22nd low. ⢠93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 31, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Euro Dollar The Euro fluctuated, breaking 1.4308 first, then breaking 1.4380 and flying above 1.44. And as we can see, the price is currently trading inside a falling channel on the hourly chart, with the top of the channel at 1.4449. Thus, we will consider this level as resistance of the day. If broken, we will see 1.45 since the targets for such a break are 1.4502 first, and then the first Fibonacci retracement level for medium-term (38.2%) at 1.4596. To keep a positive outlook for the short-term, it is preferred that we donât break the support 1.4391, holding above it would improve the chances for more upside movement. But if it is broken, we expect the price to drop to 1.4330 first, and then test the support area that was obvious during the second half of this month 1.4264. Support: ⢠1.4391: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term. ⢠1.4330: important intraday support from Tuesday. ⢠1.4264: Dec 21st low. Resistance: ⢠1.4449: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart. ⢠1.4502: Oct 2nd low. ⢠1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trend line from yesterdayâs high, currently at 92.50. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the break of 92.31-92.52, a drop towards 91.30 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.30, the most important support for the time being. Support: ⢠91.85: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart. ⢠91.30: the rising trend line from 84.81. ⢠90.38: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24. Resistance: ⢠92.50: the falling trend line from yesterdayâs high. ⢠93.08: Jul 22nd low. ⢠93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 4, 2010
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: German Unemployment Change The EUR will be affected by the publication of the German Unemployment Change tomorrow (Jan 5). The German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise trend indicates weakness in the labor market and has a negative affect on consumer spending and therefore on the economic growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR. Analysts predict a reading of 7.00K, up from the previous 6.00K. --- Euro Dollar As we have expected, the Euro tested the important 1.4449, stopping 10 pips below it, and started a drop that broke the support specified in Thursdays report 1.4391, and reached both suggested targets 1.4330 & 1.4264 successfully. Stopping only 8 pips below 1.4264 before bouncing back to 1.43 assures its importance, and we will consider it support of the day, and the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4439, or a bounce to the upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4308 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a correction of Thursdays big fall, ideally targeting 1.4369, and if broken we will jump to 1.4424-1.4456, a resistance area that is full of short term resistance levels. Support: 1.4264: Dec 21st low. 1.4176: Sep 1st low. 1.4103: Aug 10th low. Resistance: 1.4308: intraday top. 1.4369: short term Fibonacci 61.8%. 1.4424-1.4456: a resistance area that is full of important levels for short term. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in the last report of last year 92.50, and successfully reached the suggested target 93.08 with astonishing accuracy (Thursdays high was 93.09). Short-term resistance is provided by this level. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53 and then 94.05. This uptrend is protected by the rising trend line from 84.81 which is currently at 91.54 and the SMA100 as well. On the other hand, if the price fails to break of 93.08, a drop towards short-term support 92.35 will follow. And if broken, we will target 91.54 where there is the rising trend line from 84.81. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.51, the most important support for the time being. Support: 92.35: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 91.54: the rising trend line from 84.81. 90.51: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.09. Resistance: 93.08: Thursdays high. 93.53: Mar 19h low. 94.05: Aug 28th low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Stock charts and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 5, 2009
Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes Traders of the USD await the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes tomorrow (Jan 6). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts. --- Euro Dollar The support 1.4264 survived yesterday, causing the Euro to rise. It broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4308, and reached both targets 1.4369 & the 1.4424-1.4457 successfully. But with this rise, we got closer to an important resistance, provided by the rising trend line from 1.4410, which is illustrated on the attached chart, and is currently at 1.4485. This line could provide a chance to reverse the short term direction after yesterdays rise. So, 1.4485 will be resistance of the day, and breaking it would indicate a continuation in the uptrend with the next set of targets at 1.4569 & 1.4678, the first & second main Fibonacci retracement levels for the medium term (The 38.2% & 50%). But, if 1.4485 could reverse the direction, the price will drop to the support at 1.4454, and if broken a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4256 will be initiated, which will ideally target 1.4369, and may be later 1.4303. Support: 1.4454: support level on the hourly chart. 1.4369: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4256. 1.4303: support level on the hourly chart. Resistance: 1.4485: the rising trend line from 1.4410 on the hourly chart. 1.4569: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216. 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216. --- USD/JPY At the moment of preparing this report, the Dollar-Yen is approaching 91.60, the rising trend line from 84.81. This point could be critical not just for the short term but for the medium term as well, since breaking it would indicate the termination of the rising trend line from 84.81, which will have a huge effect on the technical outlook for the medium term. If this line is broken, we will fall to the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the line survives this test, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 91.97, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20 (and may be to more than that), targeting the important 92.59, and once its broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited 93.53. Support: 91.60: the rising trend line from 84.81. 90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20. 89.58: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to 93.20. Resistance: 91.97: intraday resistance. 92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex quotes and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 6, 2009
Free webinar TOMORROW on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BOE) decision on short term interest rate is due to be published tomorrow (Jan 7). The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict that the rate will remain at 0.50%. --- Euro Dollar With astonishing accuracy, the Euro stopped at the suggested reversal point 1.4485 (yesterdayâs high was 1.4482), and exactly as we expected, started a big drop that reached 200 pips, passing by and breaking the support 1.4454, and reaching both suggested targets 1.4369 & 1.4303 successfully. And with coming back to areas below 1.43, we once again assure the importance of 1.4264, and we will consider it support of the day, and the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4482, or a bounce to the upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4327 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a correction of yesterdayâs big fall, ideally targeting 1.4406, and if broken we will jump to 1.4485, which reversed the upside activity, and caused yesterdayâs drop. Support: ⢠1.4264: Dec 21st low. ⢠1.4176: Sep 1st low. ⢠1.4103: Aug 10th low. Resistance: ⢠1.4327: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term. ⢠1.4569: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. ⢠1.4485: the resistance that caused yesterdayâs reversal. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the trend lien rising from 84.81, but the drop that followed was limited, before going back above the line. This behavior recommends caution, the price should trade below certain levels to maintain any importance for this break. Short-term resistance is 92.45, and the support is at 91.75. . If this support is broken, we will fall to the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the price holds above this support, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 92.45, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20 (and may be to more than that), targeting 93.08, and once its broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited 93.53. Support: ⢠91.75: the rising trend line from yesterdayâs low on intraday charts. ⢠90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20. ⢠89.58: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to 93.20. Resistance: ⢠92.45: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance. ⢠93.08: previous support/resistance area. ⢠93.53: Mar 19h low. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Commodities and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 7, 2010
Free webinar TODAY on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm Payrolls Traders of the USD await the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls report due out tomorrow (Jan 8). The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts forecast a reading of -11.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance 1.4327 and reached our first suggested target 1.4406 successfully. But after reaching 1.4445 it came back to falling, as it is trading now around 1.4360. And with coming back to these areas, we once again assure the importance of 1.4264, and we will consider it the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4482, or a bounce to the upside. But before it we should place our attention on 1.4344, and if broken a test of the important 1.4264 will be underway. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop towards 1.4176. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4394 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a rising move targeting 1.4485, which reversed the upside activity, and caused Tuesdays drop, and later 1.4584. Support: 1.4344: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 1.4264: Dec 21st low. 1.4176: Sep 1st low. Resistance: 1.4394: the falling trend line from yesterdays high on intraday charts. 1.4485: the resistance that caused Tuesdays reversal. 1.4584: Dec 11th low. --- USD/JPY As we said yesterday, Dollar-Yen broke the trend line rising from 84.81, but the drop that followed was limited, before going back above the line. This behavior recommends caution, since going back above the broken line stripped a lot of importance for this break. Short-term resistance is 93.08, and the support is at 92.24 . If this support is broken, we will fall to 91.51, and then the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term. On the other hand, if the price holds above this support, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 93.08, and breaking this level would at least lead to challenge the top93.20, targeting the long awaited 93.53, and if this important resistance is broken, we will target 94.05. Support: 92.24: the rising trend line from 84.81 91.51: obvious resistance area on the hourly chart. 90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20. Resistance: 93.08: previous support/resistance area. 93.53: Mar 19h low. 94.05: Aug 28th high. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for quotes on Rates and Bonds. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 11. 2010
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance The Trade Balance index will be published tomorrow (Jan 12) in the US, Britain and Canada. The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the country's growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the domestic currency. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency. Analysts predict a reading of -32.90B for the USD, -7.10B for the GBP and 0.40B for the CAD. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridayâs report 1.4332, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.4407 & 1.4485. But this rising move have bumped into (And slightly surpassed) the trend line which was the center of our attention all last week, and caused a notable reversal close to 1.4485. Thus, the Asian session top 1.4531 will be an important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365. Support: ⢠1.4485: important previous resistance close to last weekâs high. ⢠1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. ⢠1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. Resistance: ⢠1.4531: Asian session high. ⢠1.4625: Nov 3rd low. ⢠1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY Although it has reached 93.75, the Dollar-Yen has closed obviously on the negative side, below the important trend line on the daily charts. The price broke the support specified in Fridayâs report, and successfully reached the first suggested target 92.20. We have explained the importance of Fridayâs closing in the last report, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will be on the watch for this line which is currently at 93.11, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 92.20 (and as this report is being prepared we are trading only pips above it). Breaking the resistance 93.11 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 92.20 would open the way to a drop towards 91.51 & 90.76. Support: ⢠92.20: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. ⢠91.51: obvious resistance area on the hourly chart. ⢠93.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠93.11: the falling trend line from 101.43 on the daily charts. ⢠94.05: Aug 28th high. ⢠94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high. --- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for technical and fundamental analysis. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 12, 2010
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales Traders of USD await the publication of the Core Retail Sales report. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.30%, down from the previous 1.20%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro did not succeed in its first attempt to break the trend line we talked about yesterday. And also, the price did not move all too much, leaving yesterdays Asian session top 1.4531 as the important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365. Support: 1.4485: important previous resistance close to last weeks high. 1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. 1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. Resistance: 1.4531: Asian session high. 1.4625: Nov 3rd low. 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY We will maintain a negative bias towards this pair, and it is enough to take a look at the attached chart to know the reason why. Dollar-Yen is currently trading below the rising trend line on the hourly chart, and it is vulnerable to a big drop. We explained in the last two reports the importance of Fridays closing, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will place our focus on the broken trend line which is currently at 92.40, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 91.70. Breaking the resistance 92.40 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 91.70 would open the way to a drop towards 90.76 & 89.79. Support: 91.70: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart. 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75. 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75. Resistance: 92.40: the retest level for the broken trend line on the hourly chart. 94.05: Aug 28th high. 94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis January 13, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims Traders anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow, January 14. Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 434.00K. --- Euro Dollar For the second day in a row, the Euro did not create any major or technically meaningful moves. We maintained a trading range below Monday's top 1.4555, and above the Asian session bottom for the same day 1.4452. It seems like this trading range is getting tighter & tighter, which is a price behavior that usually happens before large moves. The borders of this tight area are drawn with the two small trend lines on the hourly chart which are at 1.4531 & 1.4464. Thus, breaking any of these levels will move the Euro in the direction of the break. If we break the resistance 1.4531 the odds of going above 1.46 will be high, where the attractive targets 1.4625 & 1.4678 await. But if we break the support 1.4464, the Euro will fall again targeting 1.4409 first, then 1.4331. And as it is the case with all tight ranges, it is highly preferred not to take a bias towards any direction before breaking the limits of the tight range. Support: * 1.4485: the trend line that limits the tight area from below. * 1.4409: Fibonacci 50% for the short term. * 1.4331: previous well known support/resistance. Resistance: * 1.4531: the trend line that limits the tight area from above. * 1.4625: Nov 3rd low. * 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY Exactly as we have expected, Dollar-Yen broke yesterday's support 91.70 and successfully reached the suggested target 90.76, stopping only 5 pips below it, before bouncing back above 91. As we can see on the attached chart, this pair has bumped into a support that caused it to bounce more than 60 pips until now. Reaching 90.76 is expected to provide a chance to create a correction for the whole fall from 93.75, which will ideally target 91.87 & 92.59. But before talking about such a correction we should see a break of short term resistance 91.33. If the price goes back to falling, and break short term support 90.95, the down trend will continue, and will target 90.35, and later the important 89.79. Support: * 90.95: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 90.35: support/resistance area on the 4-hour chart. * 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75. Resistance: * 91.33: intraday top. * 91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75. * 94.62: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on forex software see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis January 18, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision Traders are looking forward to the publication tomorrow (January 19), of the Bank of Canada, regarding short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 0.25%. --- Euro Dollar We will put all our focus for today on 1.4299, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last weekâs report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555. Support: ⢠1.4299: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom. ⢠1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom. ⢠1.4176: Sep 1st low. Resistance: ⢠1.4421: a falling trend line on the intraday charts and hourly chart. ⢠1.4509: Nov 3rd low. ⢠1.4555: Jan 11th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen tried to break 90.76 on Friday, before going back above it after an short-lived attempt, and stayed above it until the weekly close. But on the other hand, the internal structure of the last two moves: the rise from 90.71 & the fall from 92.03 could be read as parts 1 & 2 of a 3-way correction, or in the language of Elliott Wave analysis: waves a & b. In this case, a similar up move to the one from 90.71 will appear before breaking this important bottom. Such a move will ideally target 91.87 & 92.59. And given that short term resistance is at 91.30, a break here would indicate this move is already underway. On the other hand, breaking 90.76 will eliminate this assumption, and indicates a continuation of the drop on the last day of the week, which is expected to hit this pair hard, and drag it to 89.79 and may be 89.22. Support: ⢠90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75. ⢠89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75. ⢠89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area. Resistance: ⢠91.30: the falling trend line from 93.75. ⢠91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75. ⢠92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on forex quotes see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis January 19, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core CPI (MoM) Traders look forward to the publication of the Canadian Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be released tomorrow (January 20). The CPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. Also, it measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.20% versus a past reading of 0.40%. --- Euro Dollar We will put all our focus for today on 1.4303, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last weekâs report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is still at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555. Support: ⢠1.4303: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom. ⢠1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom. ⢠1.4176: Sep 1st low. Resistance: ⢠1.4421: yesterdayâs resistance that stopped the rise. ⢠1.4509: Nov 3rd low. ⢠1.4555: Jan 11th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support that we put under our surveillance in the last few days 90.76, and although this break was not followed by a big move, closing below it indicates momentum in the downtrend. Now, it is important for the price to stay below the most important resistance 90.90, which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. Staying under this trend line in specific means that the downtrend is going on. Short term support is 90.37, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 90.90, we do not expect it to be broken today, but if a surprise happens, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44. Support: ⢠90.37: intraday support. ⢠89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75. ⢠89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area. Resistance: ⢠90.90: the falling trend line from 93.75. ⢠91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75. ⢠92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on stock prices see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis January 20, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities. This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims Traders anticipate the publication tomorrow (21 January) of the Initial Jobless Claims. It is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight change from the previous reading of 444.00k to a future reading of 440.00k. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke yesterdays support 1.4303, and successfully reached both suggested targets for this break 1.4216 & 1.4176. Reaching areas below 1.4216 so fast, indicates how solid this break was, and confirms its importance. But, now after we have reached here, we should keep open minds towards every possibility. The most probable one is of course a continuation of the Dollar rally, and dragging the Euro lower and lower. This scenario gains more confidence if and when we break 1.4185, and in this case the next set of targets will be 1.4103 and the important 1.4006. But, if it turns out that todays movement will be opposite to the direction of the break we witnessed yesterday, the Euro will break the resistance at 1.4216, and in this case we may see a strong rise targeting Fibonacci retracement levels 1.4322 & 1.4371. Support: 1.4185: the most important intraday support for the last few hours. 1.4103: Aug 10th low. 1.4176: the important bottom of Jul 29th. Resistance: 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom. 1.4322: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577. 1.4371: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577. --- USD/JPY In an unexpected fashion, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 90.90 and challenged the resistance area near 91.30, in a break that is completely opposite to the technical outlook that followed the break of 90.76. This break makes the picture unclear, and we will be awaiting clearer signals by breaking the support o resistance of the day 90.76 & 91.30. Short term support is 90.76, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 91.30, and if broken, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44. Support: 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75. 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75. 89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area. Resistance: 91.30: a well known support/resistance area which stopped yesterdays rise. 91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75. 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on trading courses see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 9, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies US traders look forward to Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. --- Euro Dollar The Euro kept trading above the support 1.3620, and started to rise, breaking the resistance 1.3666, and reaching 1.3728 until this moment without reaching the target 1.3752. As we said yesterday, with Fridayâs move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present, but we need a break of 1.3745 before we can say the odds favor that. Short-term resistance is at 1.3745, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be 1.3805 & 1.3857. While the support is at 1.3666, and breaking it would bring back Fridayâs target under the spotlight: 1.3582 & 1.3516. Support: ⢠1.3666: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts. ⢠1.3582: Apr 6th high. ⢠1.3516: Apr 2nd high. Resistance: ⢠1.3745: important intraday resistance. ⢠1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. --- USD/JPY Dollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterdayâs report, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursdayâs low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.23, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, and if broken the first target would be 87.35. Short term resistance is at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterdayâs drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76. Support: ⢠89.23: the rising trend line from Thursdayâs low on intraday charts. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. ⢠87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: ⢠89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 10, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims The traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, January 11. The claims are a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight decline from the past reading to a reading of 460.00k. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke yesterdayâs resistance 1.3745, and successfully reached the first target 1.3805, which enhances our assumption of having a corrective rebound. As we said yesterday, with Fridayâs move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of todayâs resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3743, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582. Support: ⢠1.3743: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts. ⢠1.3666: a well known previous support/resistance area. ⢠1.3582: Apr 6th high. Resistance: ⢠1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3936: Feb 1st high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterdayâs report, although it tried to break 89.87 more than once, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursdayâs low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.51, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is still at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterdayâs drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76. Support: ⢠89.51: the rising trend line from Thursdayâs low on intraday charts. ⢠88.81: Fridayâs low. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 11, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales (MoM) Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Core Retail Sales tomorrow, January 12. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.40%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro stopped only 6 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdayâs report, and this confirms the importance of 1.3805. Today, this level has double importance, with the falling trend line from 1.4577 touching the above mentioned Fibonacci level. As we said yesterday, with Fridayâs move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of todayâs resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is still at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3752, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582. Support: ⢠1.3752: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.. ⢠1.3665: a well known previous support/resistance area. ⢠1.3582: Apr 6th high. Resistance: ⢠1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025, and the falling trend line from 1.4577. ⢠1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3936: Feb 1st high. --- USD/JPY After last Thursdayâs sharp drop, we can say that the Dollar-Yen has moved horizontally in the same areas for a whole week, in a period of excitement-free trading. And as the important support & resistance levels for the short term approaching each other, expecting a large move to be just around the corner is a completely logical thing. What is worth mentioning is that during last Thursdayâs drop, we have came close to the long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23, and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is little changed at 90.04, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting last Thursdayâs drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76. Support: ⢠89.75: important intraday support. ⢠88.81: Fridayâs low. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠90.04: important intraday resistance. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 15, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment European traders look forward to the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment tomorrow, February 15. The German Zentrum fĂźr Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment determines the sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism. It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a decline from the past reading to a reading of 42.50. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support 1.3662 and fell strongly as we expected, reaching the first suggested target 1.3582 successfully, and stopping only 5 pips before the second target 1.3525, Which confirmed a continuation of the downtrend, and an inability of using any chance to create a notable correction. And today, the continuation of the trend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line that is drawn on the attached chart. Short term support is are 1.3572 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Fridayâs fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3675, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well. Support: ⢠1.3572: Apr 6th high. ⢠1.3525: May 14th low. ⢠1.3422: important line on intraday charts. Resistance: ⢠1.3675: last Wednesdayâs low. ⢠1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. --- USD/JPY For another day, Dollar-Yen frustrated our hopes for a big move, and stayed another day trading in very tight ranges, and very boring ones! We have not had our major move until now. But this very limited activity should come to an end soon, and a trend will be born, which will bring back some excitement to this pair, after a very boring week. Thus, we will await a break of the support or resistance of the day, and in case we get one, we expect to see a sizeable move in the direction of the break. Our eyes will be on the support 89.83, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the first of this week, targeting 89.22, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance is at 90.22, and breaking it would target 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76. Support: ⢠89.83: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts. ⢠89.22: last Fridayâs low. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 16, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. They are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts. --- Euro Dollar The Euro did not break the resistance nor the support specified in yesterdayâs report, and traded in a tight range for the past 24 hours. The resistance that is considered the upper limit for the downtrend is 1.3720, and as long as the price is below this level, we favor more downside activity, But the technical outlook changes dramatically the minute this level is broken. The continuation of the downtrend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line drawn from 1.3838. Short term support is are 1.3616 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Fridayâs fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3720, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well. Support: ⢠1.3616: the rising trend line from 1.3530 on intraday charts. ⢠1.3525: May 14th low. ⢠1.3422: May 18th low. Resistance: ⢠1.3720: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on intraday charts. ⢠1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. --- USD/JPY Yesterday, Dollar-Yen did not break the support or resistance specified in the report, but it did break 89.83 during the Asian session. This break holds a lot of importance for the short term, since it is a break for the hourly trend line rising from the important bottom 88.53. Thus we will await a break of the Asian session low 89.70 to confirm the break of this trend line, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the coming hours, targeting 89.12, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance stays at 90.22, and the negative technical outlook will not change unless we decisively break this resistance. If this break happens, we would target the important Fibonacci levels 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76. Support: ⢠89.70: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts. ⢠89.12: Jan 27th low. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 17, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: BOJ Press Conference The Bank of Japan will be holding a press conference, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance 1.3720 and successfully and accurately reached the first suggested target 1.3778 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3780). This break moves the importance to the most important Fibonacci resistance for the short term at 1.3836, where we see a double importance for today. Breaking this level would indicate that the Euro has broken free from pressure and downtrend (for the short term at least), and we will await any signals of a direction change for the medium term. Short term resistance is at 1.3778 and we are trading pips below it now. If it is broken, we would target a test of the most important 1.3836, and if broken, we would target 1.3911 as a first, temporary, modest target on the way higher. Short term support is at 1.3740 and if broken, The Euro would settle for a 1.3780 as a short term top, and a drop would already be underway, targeting 1.3685 & 1.3626. Support: ⢠1.3740: an obvious support on the hourly chart. ⢠1.3685: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. ⢠1.3626: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. Resistance: ⢠1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025. ⢠1.3911: Jan 29th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen maintained trading above the support specified in yesterdayâs report 89.70 (the low after issuance of the report was 89.77), and it rose modestly to break 90.22 and only reaching 90.49. This behaviour is a continuation for the slow advancement activity that we have seen recently, which as it is shown on the chart, is trading inside a slowly rising channel. As long as we are trading inside this channel we expect more of the same. The bottom of the channel is at 89.90 and this is the most important support for the short term. If broken, a drop will be initiated targeting 89.12 & 88.23 all over again. The resistance is at Jan 26th & 28th top 90.53, and breaking it would indicate that this rising trend will accelerate, targeting Fibonacci levels 91.14 & 91.76 all over again. Support: ⢠89.90: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. ⢠89.12: Jan 27th low. ⢠88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75. Resistance: ⢠90.53: Jan 26th & 28th highs. ⢠91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on currency trading see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 18, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. Fundamental Analysis: US CPI (MoM) Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.30%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro stopped just 8 pips above the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3778, before collapsing completely, breaking the support 1.3740 and successfully reaching both suggested targets 1.3685 & 1.3626. As we always say, stopping close enough to a Fibonacci resistance is an evidence of a downtrend, and this is what happened yesterday. Today, it seems we will have a correction for yesterday's huge drop, before continuing to go lower is such a strong downtrend. Intraday support 1.3562 is an important support, and as long as we hold above it, the odds for having our correction will be immense. But, if we break it, this sharp strong drop will go on and the next set of targets will be the very important support 1.3482 & if broken 1.3422. On the other hand, if we survive above 1.3562, we will test the resistance 1.3594, and if broken the correction will be immediately initiated, wit an ideal target at 1.3671, and if broken the next target will be 1.3724. Support: ⢠1.3562: the most important intraday support. ⢠1.3482: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long term. ⢠1.3422: May 18th low. Resistance: ⢠1.3594: Feb 12th low. ⢠1.3671: Fibonacci 50% for yesterday's collapse. ⢠1.3724: hourly resistance. --- USD/JPY As expected, the Dollar-Yen maintained trading inside the channel we talked about yesterday, broke the resistance 90.53 & successfully reached the first suggested target 91.14. its only coincidence that short term Fibonacci 61.8% is almost at this level, specifically at 91.15. If it is broken, we will continue to rise and target the important Fibonacci 61.8% at 91.76. And this is an important resistance that if it is broken we can say with confidence that the Dollar has freed itself from short term downtrend. The first target of this "freedom" will be Oct 27th top 92.31. Short term resistance is at 90.80, and breaking it would reverse the strength signs we have seen in the past two days, creating a modest surprise. If this surprise actually happens, then we will target the most important short term support at 90.12, and only if broken we expect the Dollar-yen to reach 89.54. Support: ⢠90.80: Asian session low. ⢠90.12: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. ⢠89.54: Feb 11th low. Resistance: ⢠91.15: short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance. ⢠91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75. ⢠92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 22, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index European traders look forward to the publication of the German Ifo Business Climate Index. The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 96.3. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke Fridayâs resistance 1.3507 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3572, before hitting the second target 1.3653 after the open with astonishing accuracy (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3652). That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see todayâs most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3618, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491. Support: ⢠1.3618: the confirmation level for the âEngulfing patternâ on the hourly chart. ⢠1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level. ⢠1.3284: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts. Resistance: ⢠1.3653: Important intraday top. ⢠1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart. ⢠1.3810: important intraday top. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen was not able to break the support 91.51 or the resistance 92.31 on Friday. But in spite of a relatively limited trading range, it has left us a very important signal on the charts, which is a clear âReversal Dayâ pattern. This pattern is one of the strongest reversal formations, and most successful ones. Thus, we will immediately take the Yen side. We expect this pair to start falling once we break the short term support 91.55, which we trade pips above right now. IF the support at 91.55 is broken, we will witness a strong drop targeting 90.40 as a first target, and maybe we will also see 89.90. But if the price holds above this support, we could see a price behaviour negating this outlook, and we could see a test of the resistance 92.31. If this resistance is broken, the strength signs from last week will continue to achieve gains, with the next set of targets at 93.08 & the important 93.75. Support: ⢠91.55: important intraday bottom. ⢠90.40: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. ⢠89.90: Feb 15th low. Resistance: ⢠92.31: Oct 27th high. ⢠93.08: Jul 22nd low. ⢠93.75: Jan 8th top. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 23, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Tomorrow, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar âMapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Processâ, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: New Home Sales Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the New Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 350K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support 1.3618 and traveled more than half the way to the target 1.3544 (yesterdayâs low 1.3572). The modest drop came after 1.3653 successfully reversed the short term direction. That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see todayâs most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3612, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491. Support: ⢠1.3612: a rising trend line on the intraday charts. ⢠1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level. ⢠1.3491: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts. Resistance: ⢠1.3653: Important intraday top. ⢠1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart. ⢠1.3810: important intraday top. --- USD/JPY The clear âReversal Dayâ pattern proved its strength. As we have expected, the price started to fall immediately after breaking 91.55, reaching 90.84 until now (but without reaching the suggested target 90.40). As we said yesterday, the âReversal Dayâ pattern is one of the strongest & most reliable reversal patterns, that is why we will keep our bias towards the Yen, but with caution, because as we get closer & closer to the channel bottom, the odds of a rising correction gets bigger & bigger. Short term most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart which is currently at 90.55. We do not recommend going short before it is broken. If this break takes place, the price will drop targeting 89.90, and then 89.22. Resistance is at Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term 91.37, breaking it would mean that we already have a rising correction (at least). Targets of such a break are 92.31 & 93.08. Support: ⢠90.55: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. ⢠89.90: Feb 15th low. ⢠89.22: Feb 10th low. Resistance: ⢠91.37: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. ⢠92.31: Oct 27th high. ⢠93.08: Jul 22nd low. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 24, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II. Expert: Dan Cook When: Today, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money. Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Traders of the US look forward to Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.3653 and came close to 1.37, before a total reversal took place, and the Euro fell so hard, breaking the support 1.3612, and reached the first suggested target 1.3544 successfully, and stopped only 4 pips before the second. After this collapse, we ask ourselves, will the Euro be able to bounce back? The most important support for the short term is at 1.3514, where there is the rising trend line from Fridays low. If this line is broken, the fall will continue, targeting areas below the latest bottom 1.3442, most important of which for today are 1.3422 & then 1.3338.The resistance is provided by the short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3615. If broken, then the odds of breaking the important trend line demonstrated on the attached chart will be huge, and the price will jump to 1.3689 & 1.3787. Support: 1.3514: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts. 1.3422: May 18th low. 1.3338: Apr 29th high. Resistance: 1.3615: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 1.3689: Feb 23rd high. 1.3787: Feb 17th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterdays report 90.55, and reached the first suggested target 89.90 with an unbelievable accuracy (yesterdays low was exactly 89.90). This support, which represents short term 61.8% Fibonacci level, will be the most important support for today. If broken, the drop that started with the Reversal Day pattern will carry on. The next set of targets will be 89.22 & may be 88.53. But if we hold above yesterdays low, the odds of rising will be huge, even if for a correction. And if this turns out to be a rising correction, the ideal target would be at 91.02, and also, we could see a visit to the previous well known support/resistance area 91.63. Support: 89.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 89.22: Feb 10th low. 88.53: Feb 4th low. Resistance: 90.28: Asian session high. 91.02: Fibonacci 50% for the short term. 91.63: previous well known support/resistance area. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 25, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Today, Mar 15, 2010, 15:00 GMT Anthony Cherniawski, Manager of The Practical Investor, LLC combines his proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Tony specializes in swing trading and directional (trend) trading in exchange traded funds. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Existing Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 5.5 M. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays reports 1.3514, dropped about 70 pips without reaching the suggested target 1.3422. Also, the price managed to keep trading above last Fridays low, the important bottom 1.3442. Today, we see this support as the most important, and if the price stays above it, the odds of rising will be bigger. But these odds will suffer a severe hit once we break this level, even with very few pips. If 1.3442 gets broken, we see the Euro continuing the drop that started yesterday at 1.3625, and we see it leaving the 1.34 areas targeting 1.3384 as a first target for this break, and 1.3299 as a second target. The resistance is at 1.3495, and breaking it would indicate we are correcting yesterdays drop. The ideal target for such a correction would be 1.3558, and if broken, the Euro will show enough strength to jump to 1.3632, and may be more. Support: 1.3442: Feb 19th low. 1.3384: Jan 19th 2009 high. 1.3299: Apr 24th high. Resistance: 1.3495: Feb 17th high. 1.3558: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 1.3632: the falling trend line from 1.4192. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterdays report 89.90 and stopped only 8 pips before reaching the first suggested target 89.22. Breaking 89.90 holds a lot of importance on the technical side, because this area was the most important support for the short term, and because breaking it indicates the drop from 92.31 is (probably) not just a corrective one, and that is why it will go on, on the short term. Yesterdays target 89.22, will be todays support, and if the price manages to break it, we will move towards the next set of targets in the 88 area, most important of which are 88.53 & 88.00. As for the resistance, it is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.39, 90.72 & 91.05. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.75 break. Support: 89.22: Feb 10th low. 88.53: Feb 4th low. 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. Resistance: 89.75: the most important resistance on the hourly chart. 90.39: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. 91.05: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis March 1, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales Traders of North America anticipate the decision of the Bank of Canada (BOC) on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict the reading will stay at a rate of 0.25%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 1.3617, only to reach 1.3681. And after falling again closer to 1.36, the resistance 1.3648 came back into play, but the most important resistance in these areas is provided by the falling trend line from 1.3838 which is currently at 1.3713. We see that a break of 1.3648 means that the price will be heading to test the most important resistance (1.3713) as a first target for this break. And if this is also broken, we will head towards the second target 1.3810. The support is at 1.3589, and breaking it would leave us with no reason to wait for a test of 1.3713 in the short term. On the contrary we will be closer to a new test of the important support area between Wednesdays low 1.3450, and Feb 18th low 1.3442. If the Euro breaks support at 1.3589, the downtrend will resume, targeting 1.3496 & 1.3442. Support: 1.3589: the low since this weeks open. 1.3496: Feb 18th low. 1.3442: Feb 19th low. Resistance: 1.3648: important intraday top. 1.3713: the falling trend line from 1.3838. 1.3810: important resistance level on hourly charts. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in Fridays report 89.50, but it stopped 19 pips before the suggested target 88.53. And as we start a new week, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 92.31 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.34, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.34 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels. Support: 88.81: Oct 7th low. 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: 89.34: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. 90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
ForexPros Daily Analysis March 2, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP National Employment Report tomorrow March 2. The report measures the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -10.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro stopped only 4 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.3648, and fell hard, breaking the support 1.3589, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3496. It also came sort of close to the second target 1.3442 (yesterdays low was 1.3459). We note on the attached chart that yesterdays low came very close to the trend line slowly rising from 1.3422, to the extent that it could be considered as a 3rd touch of the line. Thus, this line has gained more importance. Usually, when the price stops and creates a series of bottoms that are so close to each other (1.3442, 1.3450 & yesterday 1.3459), and provides us a slightly rising trend line as it is the case, a break of this line will result in a big move on the medium term, and this is to be expected here. A break of this line could result in a move approaching 1.30 in a very few weeks. For the short term, the above mentioned line provides support at 1.3465, and if it gets broken, we see the Euro falling to 1.3390 & 1.3299. The resistance is provided by Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 1.3578, and if broken the Euro will catch a breath, and jump to 1.3652, and may be 1.3740. Support: 1.3465: the slightly rising trend line from 1.3422. 1.3390: Apr 13th high. 1.3299: Apr 24th high. Resistance: 1.3578: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 1.3652: important resistance level on hourly charts. 1.3740: previous well known resistance area. --- USD/JPY Not a lot of motion in the past 24 hours, it seems that this pair is still building a base, in a step to change short term direction. Today, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.39, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.39 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels. Support: 88.81: Oct 7th low. 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. 87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: 89.39: the slightly falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. 90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. |
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