As discussed before, rise from 1.5108 should have completed at 1.5364 and fall from there is treated as the third leg of whole consolidation that started at 1.5380. Intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper fall to retest 1.5108 support not. On the upside, above 1.5264 minor resistance will...

http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/...-2009081794055/

Congestion for EURCHF is more a product of natural fundamental ties rather than even-handed market forces or frequented technical levels. Switzerland’s heavy dependence on the Euro Zone for growth and market policy guidelines are clear from an economic standpoint; and therein lies a naturally buffer to high volatility that may develop from risk trends.[dailyfx]

My Trade Idea: EURCHF - Buy at 1.5150 Target: 1.5230, Stop: 1.5080


P&F EURCHF15 Box Size 7X3 or(0.14%) HI/LO
Data 1.5348 - 1.5135 ~ 1 Month ~ 22.09 Day
Database 1534 records 1.51647 (Last Close)
2009-08-11 05~00
2009-09-02 07~15
(GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group

1.5351|~7||||______________________________________|-0.02%|1.43%
1.5344|~14|||X_____________________________________|0.03%|1.38%
1.5337|~21|||_O____X_______________________________|0.07%|1.33%
1.5330|~28|||_O____XO______________________________|0.12%|1.29%
1.5323|~35|||_O____XO______________________________|0.16%|1.24%
1.5316|~42|||_O____XO______________________________|0.21%|1.2%
1.5309|~49|||_OX___XO______________________________|0.25%|1.15%
1.5302|~56|||_OXOX_XOX_____________________________|0.3%|1.1%
1.5295|~63|||_OXOXOXOXO____________________________|0.35%|1.06%
1.5288|~7O|||_O_OXOXOXO____________________________|0.39%|1.01%
1.5281|~77|||___OXO_OXO____________________________|0.44%|0.96%
1.5274|~84|||___OX__O_O____________________________|0.48%|0.92%
1.5267|~91|||___O_____O____________________________|0.53%|0.87%
1.5260|~98|||_________O____________________________|0.57%|0.83%
1.5253|~1O5||_________O____________________________|0.62%|0.78%
1.5246|~112||_________O____________________________|0.66%|0.73%
1.5239|~119||_________OX___________________X_______|0.71%|0.69%
1.5232|~126||_________OXO________________X_XO______|0.76%|0.64%
1.5225|~133||_________OXO________________XOXO______|0.8%|0.59%
1.5218|~14O||_________O_OX_______________XOXOX_____|0.85%|0.55%
1.5211|~147||___________OXOX_____________XO_OXO____|0.89%|0.5%
1.5204|~154||___________OXOXO__________X_X__OXO____|0.94%|0.46%
1.5197|~161||___________OXOXO__________XOX__OXO____|0.98%|0.41%
1.5190|~168||___________OXO_O__________XOX__OXO____|1.03%|0.36%
1.5183|~175||___________OX__O__X_____X_XOX__OXO____|1.08%|0.32%
1.5176|~182||___________O___OX_XOX___XOXOX__OXOX_X_|1.12%|0.27%
1.5169|~189||_______________OXOXOXOX_XOXOX__O_OXOXO|1.17%|0.22%
1.5162|~196||_______________OXOXOXOXOXOXOX____OXOXO|1.21%|0.18%
1.5155|~2O3||_______________OXOXO_OXOXOXO_____OXOXO|1.26%|0.13%
1.5148|~21O||_______________O_OX__OXO_O_______O_O_O|1.3%|0.09%
1.5141|~217||_________________O___O________________|1.35%|0.04%
1.5134|~224||______________________________________|1.39%|-0.01%
Column|~231||18365389413964394564354355871341714444|
Count|~238|||_________2__________________1__O_O____|

EUR/CHF's strong rebound argues that it has bottomed out at 1.5109 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD but there was no confirmation yet. We'll stay neutral for the moment. Break of 1.5242 will confirm that fall from 1.5364, as well as consolidation from 1.5380 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.5364/80 resistance zone. On the downside, another fall cannot be ruled out, but we'll expect strong support form 100% projection of 1.5380 to 1.5108 from 1.5364 at 1.5092 and bring reversal.[actionforex]

P&F EURCHF5 Box Size 4X3 or(0.08%) HI/LO
Data 1.5224 - 1.5109 ~ 0 Month ~ 7.25 Day
Database 1500 records 1.51443 (Last Close)
2009-09-11 16~50
2009-09-18 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group

1.5224|~4||||______________________________x_____________|0%|0.76%
1.5220|~8||||______________________________x_o___________|0.03%|0.73%
1.5216|~12|||______________________________x_o___________|0.05%|0.71%
1.5212|~16|||______________________________x_o___________|0.08%|0.68%
1.5208|~2O|||______________________________x_o___________|0.11%|0.66%
1.5204|~24|||______________________________x_o___________|0.13%|0.63%
1.5200|~28|||______________________________x_o___________|0.16%|0.6%
1.5196|~32|||__________________________x___x_o___________|0.18%|0.58%
1.5192|~36|||__________________________x_o_x_o___________|0.21%|0.55%
1.5188|~4O|||__________________________x_o_x_o___________|0.24%|0.52%
1.5184|~44|||__________________________x_o_x_o___________|0.26%|0.5%
1.5180|~48|||__________________________x_o_x_o___________|0.29%|0.47%
1.5176|~52|||__________________________x_o_x_o___________|0.32%|0.44%
1.5172|~56|||______________________x___x_o___o___________|0.34%|0.42%
1.5168|~6O|||__________________x___x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.37%|0.39%
1.5164|~64|||__________________x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_______|0.39%|0.36%
1.5160|~68|||__________________x_o_x_o_______o_x_o_______|0.42%|0.34%
1.5156|~72|||__________________x_o___________o_x_o_______|0.45%|0.31%
1.5152|~76|||__________________x_____________o_x_o_____x_|0.47%|0.28%
1.5148|~8O|||__________________x_____________o___o_x___x_|0.5%|0.26%
1.5144|~84|||==================x=================o=x=o=x=|0.53%|0.23%
1.5140|~88|||______x___________x_________________o_x_o_x_|0.55%|0.21%
1.5136|~92|||__x___x_o_x_______x_________________o___o___|0.58%|0.18%
1.5132|~96|||o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_________________________|0.6%|0.15%
1.5128|~1OO||o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________________|0.63%|0.13%
1.5124|~1O4||o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_x_________________________|0.66%|0.1%
1.5120|~1O8||o_x_o_______o___o___________________________|0.68%|0.07%
1.5116|~112||o_x_________________________________________|0.71%|0.05%
1.5112|~116||o___________________________________________|0.74%|0.02%
1.5108|~12O||____________________________________________|0.76%|-0.01%
Column|~124||6_6_4_5_4_3_4_3_3_123_4_3_9_6_13195_8_3_3_4_|
Count




PDF

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. But still with 1.5102 support intact, we're favoring the bullish case that choppy fall from 1.5238 has completed at 1.5080 already. Above 1.5145 will bring rise resumption to 1.5238 resistance first. Nevertheless, break of 1.5102 minor support will dampen this immediate bullish view and indicate that another fall could still be seen to 1.5076 and below before concluding recent consolidations.
In the bigger picture, firstly, price actions from 1.5446 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.4577 only and such rise is expected to resume sooner or later to test 1.5880 resistance. Secondly, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.5880 to 1.4577 indicates that it's a correction to medium term rise from 1.4315. Rise from 1.4577 is tentatively treated as resumption of rally from 1.4315. Hence we're expecting an eventual break of 1.5880 as rise from 1.4315 resumes. In other words, we're favoring the case that long term down trend from 1.6826 has completed at 1.4315 already. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5007 support remains intact.[actionforex]

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 80X4 or(2.06%) HI/LO
Data 1.6827 - 1.4315 ~ 48 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.50417 (Last Close)
2005-11-10 00~00
2009-11-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6800|~8O|||____X___________________________|0.16%|17.36%
1.6720|~16O||____XoX_________________________|0.64%|16.8%
1.6640|~24O||__X_XoXo________________________|1.11%|16.24%
1.6560|~32O||__XoXoXo________________________|1.59%|15.68%
1.6480|~4OO||__XoXoXo________________________|2.06%|15.12%
1.6400|~48O||__XoXoXo________________________|2.54%|14.57%
1.6320|~56O||__XoXo_o__X_X___________________|3.01%|14.01%
1.6240|~64O||__Xo___o__XoXo__________________|3.49%|13.45%
1.6160|~72O||__X____oX_XoXo__________________|3.96%|12.89%
1.6080|~8OO||__X____oXoXoXo__________________|4.44%|12.33%
1.6000|~88O||__X____oXoXo_o__________________|4.91%|11.77%
1.5920|~96O||__X____oXoX__o__________________|5.39%|11.21%
1.5840|~1O4O|X_X____o_oX__o________X_________|5.87%|10.65%
1.5760|~112O|XoX______oX__o________Xo________|6.34%|10.09%
1.5680|~12OO|XoX______oX__o________Xo________|6.82%|9.54%
1.5600|~128O|XoX______oX__o________Xo________|7.29%|8.98%
1.5520|~136O|Xo_______oX__oX_____X_Xo________|7.77%|8.42%
1.5440|~144O|X________oX__oXo____XoXo____X___|8.24%|7.86%
1.5360|~152O|_________o___oXo____XoXo____XoX_|8.72%|7.3%
1.5280|~16OO|_____________oXo____XoXo____XoXo|9.19%|6.74%
1.5200|~168O|_____________oXo____Xo_o____XoXo|9.67%|6.18%
1.5120|~176O|_____________o_o__X_X__oX_X_XoXo|10.14%|5.62%
1.5040|~184O|_______________o__XoX__oXoXoXo_o|10.62%|5.06%
1.4960|~192O|_______________o__XoX__oXoXoX___|11.1%|4.51%
1.4880|~2OOO|_______________oX_XoX__oXoXoX___|11.57%|3.95%
1.4800|~2O8O|_______________oXoXoX__o_oXoX___|12.05%|3.39%
1.4720|~216O|_______________oXoXo_____o_oX___|12.52%|2.83%
1.4640|~224O|_______________oXoX________o____|13%|2.27%
1.4560|~232O|_______________oXo______________|13.47%|1.71%
1.4480|~24OO|_______________oX_______________|13.95%|1.15%
1.4400|~248O|_______________oX_______________|14.42%|0.59%
1.4320|~256O|_______________o________________|14.9%|0.03%
1.4240|~264O|________________________________|15.37%|-0.52%
Column|~272O|64157651411441517475148145561544|
Count|~28OO||__4____1_O2__5_5____O__3____O___|




BJF-Trading-Group-091126_eurchfMix.xls

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4557 last week and met mentioned 1.4577 key support level. However, the cross the rebounded strongly on SNB intervention and before settling at 1.4667. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd expect some more sideway consolidations in near term. The range of the consolidation is not defined yet and another rise to above 1.4820 cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong resistance ahead of 1.5 psychological level to limit any rebound attempt.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. The test of 1.4577 key support is already done but near term downside should be limited on risk of further intervention from SNB. We'd expect some choppy sideway consolidations below 1.5 psychological level first before down trend finally resume for a test of 1.4315 low. Sustained trading above 1.5 psychological level is needed to invalidate this bearish view.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.[Written by ActionForex.com]

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 80X4 or(2.05%) CLOSE
Data 1.6796 - 1.4418 ~ 92 Month ~ 2809 Day
Database 2000 records 1.4661 (Last Close)
2002-06-03 00~00
2010-02-10 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6800|~8O|||________________________________________|-0.02%|16.52%
1.6720|~16O||________________X_______________________|0.45%|15.97%
1.6640|~24O||______________X_XoX_____________________|0.93%|15.41%
1.6560|~32O||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.41%|14.86%
1.6480|~4OO||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.88%|14.3%
1.6400|~48O||______________XoXoXo____________________|2.36%|13.75%
1.6320|~56O||______________XoXoXoX_X_________________|2.83%|13.19%
1.6240|~64O||____________X_Xo_o_oXoXo________________|3.31%|12.64%
1.6160|~72O||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|3.79%|12.08%
1.6080|~8OO||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|4.26%|11.53%
1.6000|~88O||____________XoX____oXo_o________________|4.74%|10.97%
1.5920|~96O||____________Xo_____oX__o________________|5.22%|10.42%
1.5840|~1O4O|____________X______oX__o____X___________|5.69%|9.86%
1.5760|~112O|____X_____X_X______oX__o____Xo__________|6.17%|9.31%
1.5680|~12OO|__X_Xo____XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|6.64%|8.75%
1.5600|~128O|__XoXo__X_XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.12%|8.2%
1.5520|~136O|__XoXoX_XoXoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.6%|7.64%
1.5440|~144O|__XoXoXoXoXo_______o___o__X_Xo__________|8.07%|7.09%
1.5360|~152O|__Xo_oXoXoX____________o__XoXo______X___|8.55%|6.53%
1.5280|~16OO|__X__oXoXo_____________o__XoXo______XoX_|9.03%|5.98%
1.5200|~168O|__X__oXoX______________o__XoXo______XoXo|9.5%|5.42%
1.5120|~176O|__X__oXoX______________o__Xo_oX_X_X_XoXo|9.98%|4.87%
1.5040|~184O|__X__o_o_______________oX_X__oXoXoXoXoXo|10.45%|4.31%
1.4960|~192O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoXo_o|10.93%|3.76%
1.4880|~2OOO|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoX__o|11.41%|3.2%
1.4800|~2O8O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXo_oX__o|11.88%|2.65%
1.4720|~216O|X_X____________________oXo___o_oX__oX__o|12.36%|2.09%
1.4640|~224O|_oX____________________oX______o___oX__o|12.84%|1.54%
1.4560|~232O|_oX____________________oX__________o____|13.31%|0.98%
1.4480|~24OO|_oX____________________oX_______________|13.79%|0.43%
1.4400|~248O|_o_____________________o________________|14.27%|-0.12%
Column|~256O|1414596674641495665114428494915664471548|
Count||||||||__6_________O______51__4_____4______O___|






BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
Despite dipping to 1.4294 briefly, there was no follow through selling and EUR/CHF recovered back into familiar range. Outlook is turned neutral again and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4294 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 100X3 or(1.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6827 - 1.4144 ~ 92 Month ~ 2811 Day
Database 2000 records 1.43556 (Last Close)
2002-08-16 00~00
2010-04-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6800|~1OO||____________X_________________________|0.16%|18.78%
1.6700|~2OO||____________XoX_______________________|0.75%|18.07%
1.6600|~3OO||__________X_XoXo______________________|1.35%|17.36%
1.6500|~4OO||__________XoXoXo______________________|1.94%|16.66%
1.6400|~5OO||__________XoXoXo______________________|2.54%|15.95%
1.6300|~6OO||__________XoXo_o__X_X_________________|3.13%|15.24%
1.6200|~7OO||__________Xo___oX_XoXo________________|3.73%|14.54%
1.6100|~8OO||__________X____oXoXoXo________________|4.32%|13.83%
1.6000|~9OO||__________X____oXoXo_o________________|4.91%|13.12%
1.5900|~1OOO|__________X____o_oX__o________________|5.51%|12.42%
1.5800|~11OO|X_X_____X_X______oX__o________X_______|6.1%|11.71%
1.5700|~12OO|XoXo____XoX______oX__o________Xo______|6.7%|11%
1.5600|~13OO|XoXo__X_XoX______oX__o________Xo______|7.29%|10.29%
1.5500|~14OO|Xo_oX_XoXo_______oX__oX_____X_Xo______|7.89%|9.59%
1.5400|~15OO|X__oXoXoX________o___oXo____XoXo____X_|8.48%|8.88%
1.5300|~16OO|X__oXoXo_____________oXo____XoXo____Xo|9.07%|8.17%
1.5200|~17OO|X__oXoX______________oXo____Xo_o____Xo|9.67%|7.47%
1.5100|~18OO|X__o_o_______________o_o__X_X__oX_X_Xo|10.26%|6.76%
1.5000|~19OO|X______________________o__XoX__oXoXoXo|10.86%|6.05%
1.4900|~2OOO|X______________________oX_XoX__oXoXoXo|11.45%|5.35%
1.4800|~21OO|X______________________oXoXo___o_oXoXo|12.05%|4.64%
1.4700|~22OO|X______________________oXoX______o_oXo|12.64%|3.93%
1.4600|~23OO|X______________________oXo_________o_o|13.23%|3.22%
1.4500|~24OO|_______________________oX____________o|13.83%|2.52%
1.4400|~25OO|_______________________o_____________o|14.42%|1.81%
1.4300|~26OO|_____________________________________o|15.02%|1.1%
1.4200|~27OO|_____________________________________o|15.61%|0.4%
1.4100|~28OO|______________________________________|16.21%|-0.31%
Column|||||||13374453531465483893314153537361344581|
Count||||||||3_________1__________2_1_______O_____2|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

A look at the CHF, its historical use as a safe haven currency.
P&F =>>> Chf\Jpy & Jpy\Chf; Usd\Chf; Gbp\Chf; Eur\Chf and Chf Index.


=>>>img88.imageshack.us/img88/9812/10dec191731.pdf
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.