It looks like we are seeing a relief rally here. Although the trend is still down, we are right on the 50 day moving average. If we make a convincing close above this and the stochastics and momentum confirm it then we will be looking at a trend change if the S&P breaches the 885 level. It does look like that there is still some upside to this rally.
Not much has changed with the commercials this week in commercial ownership. They are still net sellers.
Nothing terribly notable about this week although Friday the 13th, which is before President's day has been down 14 out of 17 times and off 11 in a row from 1992-2002.
Despite the fact that the commercials are telling us the market will move down there are two possibilities. One they are wrong and we've hit the bottom or two this is a substantial bear market rally. In any case price action is indicating that that the near term move is up possibly into the low 900 levels on the S&P.