This has been the roughest week I have ever seen in the autosurf world, with the two biggies gone, a crowd of lesser lights are sure to follow.

Where do you stand on this? And where do we go from here?

Pete

Are the domino effect has started to begin ?

i have noticed that after 13daily went i received a email about 120roi changing a few rules so no more upgrades there im afraid but more will follow im as sure the sky is blue

It has definitely been a hard, hard week for many people. As someone mentioned, the domino effect will begin, and has begun with other surf programs. So the next few weeks could be quite interesting.

I have never thought that the surf industry would die. I think it is deathly ill, but with the right type of program, and admin, I truly think that this could still be a great industry to be in.

There are a couple of surfs out there that are looking okay. Nothing to terribly exciting though. Maybe that is what the industry needs is some good solid smaller surfs, rather than just a couple of really big ones.

Where does it go from here? That is a mighty good question. What I fear, is that we have lost and are going to lose some real decent people that were in some of these programs. They have gotten burned, and probably will not come back. We need some decent people to come into this industry that have actual morals, and integrity, that will support a program, as well as the admins, in good times and bad. We also need some admins to stand up and take the helm, and be upfront, honest about things, and that will stick around.

We have plenty of scam admins out there. So where are the good ones at?

Could be an interesting couple of weeks. We shall see.

There are pains everywhere.Admin from these 2 must be celebrating now.

How we can consider that any autosurf can't die.. We have big example of ..studio traffic. .. haven't we..
so a big boss can go down.. no matter after one month.one year or two year .. but it has to die..
what you say?.
okay suppose we have an honest admin..Autosurf will work ofr few months. for a year. and when new investment will stop coming no more payouts.. agian Gone.. and new enetries will loss their money..
as for now my understanding every thing is game..and it has to finished one day..
Jump early.. make money and don't look back
best of luck every one..
P.S i never invest in these kinda programs
see ou around..

It happens all the times. Soon enough, something will come along to take their place and people will eventually forget all about them. Thats just the way it works.

I definitely know that there're alot of investors risking much more than they can afford. I see these guys running around trying to HAR various programs with these huge 4 figures. I saw at least half a dozen of them try to do it to PSP, lol.

Quick throwing around so much money, more than you can afford, then maybe this HAR mentality would calm down a bit.

People were throwing between 1 - $4 k into PSP. Are kidding me? No wonder these egg heads lose big, then run around throwing even more money into programs in desperation, like compulsive gamblers, hoping to HAR a program to make up for that.

Chill folks. Time to get back to the basics of that golden rule and really live by it. Probably won't completely solve the problem, but it's a step in the right direction.

Completely agreed with you david..
Rules need to remember if you are investing in any Filed.. no matter in HYIp or in legit Business.
Golden rule you have told above that invest what you can afford to loss..
i will post an artical about it also..
and it may be help people to understand baout investment..
wil post later in future.
see you around.

I agree with this, IMDeMan. 2006 has been a miserable year for autosurfs and the future is very uncertain.
It will be interesting to see if the "industry" can survive through much of 2007 or if it is dead in the water.
I would say the main issues to be addressed are Communication, Other streams of income and Referral commissions. Both these last two lead into a discussion on Tactics for sustainability.

Communication
If I do much next year, I think I will only go with programs where the admin is readily available in the MMG forum and has a record that is beyond reproach, as much as you can ascertain. But even then you have to be wary - if I hear the term "honest admin" again, I think I will puke.

Communication is the key and members need regular updates. Failure to communicate with your members means failure of the program. If that means limiting myself to smaller programs then so be it. I would rather deal personally with admins on this forum. I think that a program having its own forum is a disaster - Studio Traffic was like a fascist dictatorship and even 12by12 seemed to be going that way at the end. These programs were maybe too big for their own good, leading to greed then downfall.

Other streams of income
The problem is that autosurfing in its present model is not sustainable unless there are other streams of income. 12DP said that they had other streams, but didn't say what they were and in the end were found to have nothing. Studio Traffic had all its Studio Rocks, Studio Shopping or whatever it was but it was basically just rubbish and was not enough to keep anything going - you were never going to pay out thousands by selling a few mugs or coasters. 12by12 daily didn't seem to have anything either - Dave spoke about building reserves - that could just be sticking some quarters in a cookie jar. Unless admins can say what they are investing in, all we have is the same money going backwards and forwards - no product, just a ponzi, bound to fail sooner or later.

Referral commissions
If there are no outside investments and admins are just recycling the same pool of money, then the other major factor is referral commissions. I am against referral commissions but I don't know how you solve that problem. If you have a legitimate program, you have to get it off the ground somehow. If the admin only tells his next door neighbour and the program is not advertised, then it is going to fold quickly - but if the admin offers too much referral commission, that will eat away at funds plus you will have the disgusting referral whores everywhere. There has to be a happy medium between zero referral commissions and referral pimping - whoever can crack that might be on to the next big one.

Tactics for sustainability
Having outside investments is paramount - otherwise you have another failure in the making, and the admin will then be classed either as a scammer or as incompetent. Even if an admin has serious outside investments and wants to be considered as a legitimate concern, the admin will need to decide his further tactics for sustainability.

50/50 schemes - I don't like them, particularly when they are forced upon you without notice, because it means you can never leave or never go away for a few weeks holiday, unless there's a vacation button.

Earn as you go - While I don't like 50/50 schemes, the alternative leaves it open to Hit and Runners to make a quick killing and then wreck a program for most people, particularly if this includes referral commission. Some other system has to be put in place to stop Hit and Runners.

Instant payments - Some of these seem to be gaining in popularity, but I have seen some people thinking they are not viable. I really don't know the maths on this - but the one benefit is that if you have some instant payment, it is better than having your money trapped in a 50/50 with multiple pendings.

There may well be many sites I am not aware of which have overcome a lot of these problems already. Let's hope so, otherwise it is going to be a tense time, just wondering who is going to rip you off next.

Cake, this is an intelligent well thought out post.
You have managed to cover a number of areas that really do affect the life of a program.

I do not like the instant pay model, I believe that it is fine for hit and run, and in fact encourages it, turning programs into games, and no more.

You really hit the nail on the head with your comment on outside income streams, this is vital, but having said that good reliable contracts require time to produce results, and I wonder if todays players would have the patience to wait for a program to grow to maturity, and pay dividends. This year I have been dabbling in commodity futures in a small way, and it has proven to me that with the leverage available this would be an ideal income stream.

With the emergence of many Asian countries, and the explosive growth of China and India, commodities such as copper, nickle, oil, and iron ore are going to grow in demand well into the future.
I believe that there is a way to make a program work with a good honest, sound base.

50/50 ? I don't like it, as it has very little appeal to players, and I believe it has already been tarnished by the programs that have folded with this system.
70/30, appeals much more to me, as a deterrent to hit and runners, (hit and run if you like, but you will only get your spend back).

Scripts, lose them.
The constant hacking of programs real or otherwise is just painful, similarly ddos attacks, if you have no script you avoid these problems, and you have no excuses.

Ref coms.
A neccessary evil, but, having said that, they can be smaller, and it is possible to terminate them after the 2nd or 3rd upgrade.

Honest admins, this is the internet after all, but, there must be some honest, capable people out there.

My 2 cents for the moment, I am sure I will think of something else, this thread could be a good sounding board for the future.

Pete

Oh and BTW communication is everything, countless times we have seen what happens when it dries up.

Well said, Pete. A lot of good points here.

Hopefully we'll get a good discussion going here without all the clowns coming in to parade their big banners and spam their referral links all over the place. I seriously think MMG should stop that practice immediately or perhaps keep it to a Referral Whore Sub-section, because I think it is so demeaning.

I feel a bit happier now after this morning's shock of both 12by12 Daily and DadnDaves going down, even though it had seemed likely ever since all the sudden changes took place weeks ago.

Speak to you soon.

Real good points you two. One of the things I see lacking in this industry, other than true loyalty is patience. Many of the returns that are being realized in commodities and other options like that are plausible, but it takes time to achieve those numbers.

There is one program that I am in, has a low percentage over the course of a very long time, but is still better than any bank or any other program that is out there, and it is stable. But once again, it takes time.

The idea of no script is a very good one, however, there needs to be something there that people can look at to see their investment. No database, nothing that hackers can even get. A backup in case the site goes down. A backup of the membership so that if the site goes down, contact can still be made from a different avenue. I have seen a number of sites go down for hours or days, and because they had no way of contacting the membership it died.

There is alot to this little thread, and it has really got me to thinking as well.

Whenever I read posts from the critics after a program failure, vilfying the admin, I just gotta wonder, where are their programs?

So many critics in the 12x12 thread for instance, what dave should've done, what he didn't do right, what I would've done better... such brillant ideas in how to sustain a ponzi longer than 5 months, or a way to combat the HAR's... only question I got to ask them is... where is your program with these brilliant ideas?

yep .. it can't be easy Dave tried and succeded in my eyes.. He could have scammed for $1m but i beleive he paid out most the money and took his cut which is fari..nothings free..

Just read your post in the blog in your signature "The Inside Truth About "The" Biz". Lots of good things. The sad part is, the majority of the people that read it, never got to the solution that was proposed. And until that happens, until the solution is realized, this industry is doomed. Nice article by the way.

Thanks IMDeMan.

It may not be as popular as other blogs, but one thing I try to strive to do is deliver the truth, even if it hurts, and I'm sure it does to most people who want to think this industry is something it isn't, lol.

Wait til you see my next article.

I think david has done a fantastic job on maintaining a ponzi for 5 months.

People just can't shake the 12dp flashbacks, and think every ponzi should be judged according to 12dp.

5 months is AMAZING for a ponzi considering that we're in a totally different time, with totally different investors.

I'll need to reread that in the morning, I'm too tired now to take much in.
I had a look at it a week or so back and thought it was excellent.



I suppose the problem as far as 12by12 Daily was concerned was Dave said his program was based on 12DP - every day you logged in you saw the "shining light" reference, so it was hard not to have flashbacks.

True dat.

And we also have to consider that most investors don't have enough common sense to figure out that what they read on a ponzi site is usually bs anyway.

The best back up you can have is just the e-gold or e-bullion, history page, backed up several times per day.

I believe that a nominal daily percentage can be offered, based on history, this allows people to always know where they are. Admin communication on this forum regularly over 5-6 days per week should keep everybody happy.

Admin must always be mindful that he is in a position of trust, handling other people's money, and do the best he can to keep everybody in the loop.

I probably feel different to others about the demise of 12x12d, in as much as I see classical wind down patterns according to my own feelings, I believe that communication from the admin could have worked wonders, providing the communications were backed up by action.

Keep it running here, it's all good.

Pete

Communication is a very good situation to have. As you mentioned 12x12, the communication was poor, support was even worse, but everyone seemed to think that was o.k. (Not Me) But I agree, that an admin needs to take the reigns and accept the responsibility of things.

This has really sparked some thinking in my wee little brain. I think there are some good things that could come out of this whole thing if it is done right. If the support base is available and the right admin os at the helm.

I think that the only real way to make it work is to use e-bullion and e-gold. Those are two processors that seem to have it together (At least as good as they can have it together)

Well, I am just kind of rambling here, so I think that I will escape this thread for a bit.

I am allergic to payment processors in general, since the Stormpay exit, I have seen it as altogether too easy for a processor to repeat the performance. Bank wires are a good safe transmission, but, costly and slow, and not always available to people from some countries.

Well managed e-gold is safe, e-bullion too is safe, it is simply a matter of fanatical safe practice, and frankly I doubt that 10% of the purported hacks really happen.

Pete

Allergic to payment processors that is a good one...

I agree that hackers get the blame for alot of things. It is an easy out for many people....but I also think that the hackers have destroyed some really good programs as well.