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Weekly Technical Overview|
post Jul 4 2011, 11:09 AM
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Bullish above 1.0780.

The Aussie came within a couple of cents from the highs of a range that has been in place since May. The confirmation point of that double bottom pattern is a close above 1.078. If that happens this week, the next resistance is at the highs of May 11 at 1.089 followed by the highs of May 2 at 1.101.

The downtrend resumes if there is a close below the lows of the double bottom pattern at 1.044-1.039. A break below that level and next support is the 50% retracement of the gains since the lows of March 2011 (0.9700 – 1.1010) around 1.0350, then the Fibonacci 62% retracement level at 1.0200.

Sup: 1.0440 1.0350 1.0200
Res: 1.0780 1.0890 1.1010

Bullish unless below 1.4070.

Last week the euro broke above the key level of 1.444. This implies the correction for the euro is over and it now has the potential to retest the early May highs. Next resistance is the highs of 1.470, dating back to June 7. This level is the confirmation point for a larger double bottom pattern. Next resistance is then at the target price for the smaller double bottom pattern at 1.481 then the early May highs of 1.494.

Any sell-off this week is likely to find support around the resistance-turned-support of 1.444 followed by the lows of the smaller double bottom pattern at 1.407 then the lows of May at 1.397.

Sup: 1.444 1.407 1.397
Res: 1.470 1.481 1.494

Bearish unless above 1.6260.

A rebound last week took sterling to a high of 1.612. This was below the previous rebound high of 1.626 – the point at which the outlook would change to bullish (at least in the short term). As long as this level is not surpassed, the outlook for sterling remains negative. Next downside target is at the lows of June 28 at 1.600, which is close to the Fibonacci 62% retracement of the gains since December. Next support is then at the lows of January 25 at 1.575 followed by the highs of December 31 at 1.566.

Any rebound is likely to find first resistance at last week’s highs of 1.612 then the key level of 1.626 then the 50% retracement of the losses since late April around 1.632.

Sup: 1.600 1.575 1.566
Res: 1.612 1.626 1.632

Bullish above 82.23; bearish below 79.54.

Yet another week of consolidation for the yen – more positive signals for a sustainable recovery. However there is a caveat to the bullish call. There were three intraday breaches of the crucial 81.06 level but no close above. This could signal a retest of the downside this week. A close above 81.06 would be the confirmation this market is looking for. Next resistance is then at the highs of May at 82.23 followed by the Fibonacci 62% retracement of the losses since April at 83.26.

No change in the trigger point for a resumption of the losses: the June lows of 79.67 remain critical. A close below this level and it is a short trip to the lows of May at 79.54. There is little support between that level and the post-tsunami lows of March 16 at 76.43 – and confirmation point for a cyclical bear market for the US/yen exchange rate.

Res: 81.06 82.23 83.26
Sup: 79.67-79.54 79.03 76.43

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