Gun Policy Changes

Daily Market Commentary for December 17, 2012
After the horrific shooting that included 20 innocent kindergarten children at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut on Friday, President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats show signs of supporting gun policy changes. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner met at the White House on Monday and apparently negotiations are more optimistic. Over the weekend, Boehner offered to allow higher taxes on incomes of $1 million and above plus, agreed to increase the debt ceiling for one year. White House spokesperson Jay Carney told reporters, “Conversations continue.” The new proposal from Boehner would reportedly bring in $1 trillion in revenue over 10 years, compared to $1.4 trillion for proposal from Obama. While Boehner would agree to raise the debt ceiling for one year, the President wants unlimited power to increase the country’s borrowing limit. Boehner wants $1 trillion in spending cuts which would include cuts to entitlement programs in exchange for the $1 trillion in revenue. The positive effects of possible aversion of the fiscal cliff helped pushed the markets higher, into rally mode at the close of Monday's trading session with the Dow Jones Industrial average up over 100 points, S&P 500 closed higher by over 16 points and NASDAQ tacked on gains of over 39 points at the closing bell.

On a positive note, during the month of December, the price of gas at the pump has fallen by 15.4 cents, striking the lowest price seen since December 2011, according to AAA. Into the upcoming Christmas holiday, this in itself is a gift for those taking to the highway. According to AAA Michael Green, an estimated 84.4 million Americans will be hitting the road over the holiday season. The estimated numbers are up 1.3% from 83.3 million people who traveled over the holiday season in 2011.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday that the Empire State manufacturing index remained in negative territory for the fifth month consecutive month. During December, the index fell to negative 8.1 from negative 5.2 in November. Readings below zero indicate a decline in activity. Key new orders sub-index fell below zero after returning to positive territory in November and shipments retreated as well. The New York Fed reported that employment conditions remained in negative territory. Manufacturers in the parts of the region hit by Hurricane Sandy estimated that revenues in October were 7% lower than otherwise would have been and were 5% lower during November.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported on Monday that foreign investors were net buyers of Treasurys in October, one month after they were net sellers of the largest amount of bonds on record. During October, foreigners bought a net $7.6 billion of U.S. Treasurys, up from net sales of $18.3 billion in September. Overall, the U.S. Treasury Department said foreign investors bought a net $28.4 billion of long-term U.S. securities in October, up from the $17.8 billion purchased in September. This amount includes Treasurys, mortgage-related bonds, corporate bonds and equities. China-based investors slightly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasurys in the month, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.


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Gun Policy Changes

Daily Market Commentary for December 17, 2012
After the horrific shooting that included 20 innocent kindergarten children at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut on Friday, President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats show signs of supporting gun policy changes. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner met at the White House on Monday and apparently negotiations are more optimistic. Over the weekend, Boehner offered to allow higher taxes on incomes of $1 million and above plus, agreed to increase the debt ceiling for one year. White House spokesperson Jay Carney told reporters, “Conversations continue.” The new proposal from Boehner would reportedly bring in $1 trillion in revenue over 10 years, compared to $1.4 trillion for proposal from Obama. While Boehner would agree to raise the debt ceiling for one year, the President wants unlimited power to increase the country’s borrowing limit. Boehner wants $1 trillion in spending cuts which would include cuts to entitlement programs in exchange for the $1 trillion in revenue. The positive effects of possible aversion of the fiscal cliff helped pushed the markets higher, into rally mode at the close of Monday's trading session with the Dow Jones Industrial average up over 100 points, S&P 500 closed higher by over 16 points and NASDAQ tacked on gains of over 39 points at the closing bell.

On a positive note, during the month of December, the price of gas at the pump has fallen by 15.4 cents, striking the lowest price seen since December 2011, according to AAA. Into the upcoming Christmas holiday, this in itself is a gift for those taking to the highway. According to AAA Michael Green, an estimated 84.4 million Americans will be hitting the road over the holiday season. The estimated numbers are up 1.3% from 83.3 million people who traveled over the holiday season in 2011.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday that the Empire State manufacturing index remained in negative territory for the fifth month consecutive month. During December, the index fell to negative 8.1 from negative 5.2 in November. Readings below zero indicate a decline in activity. Key new orders sub-index fell below zero after returning to positive territory in November and shipments retreated as well. The New York Fed reported that employment conditions remained in negative territory. Manufacturers in the parts of the region hit by Hurricane Sandy estimated that revenues in October were 7% lower than otherwise would have been and were 5% lower during November.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported on Monday that foreign investors were net buyers of Treasurys in October, one month after they were net sellers of the largest amount of bonds on record. During October, foreigners bought a net $7.6 billion of U.S. Treasurys, up from net sales of $18.3 billion in September. Overall, the U.S. Treasury Department said foreign investors bought a net $28.4 billion of long-term U.S. securities in October, up from the $17.8 billion purchased in September. This amount includes Treasurys, mortgage-related bonds, corporate bonds and equities. China-based investors slightly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasurys in the month, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.


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U.s. Households Wealth Rises

Daily Market Commentary for December 6, 2012
According to the Federal Reserve on Thursday as part of their quarterly Flow of Funds report, the net wealth of U.S. households rose during Q3 to its highest level seen since late 2007 which provides a positive sign for future consumer spending as consumers feel more comfortable spending their money. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Thursday that applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended December 1 for the third straight decline and lowest reading in one month. Revision to initial jobless claims from two weeks ago - up to 395,000 from an original reading of 393,000 which was based on more complete data collected at the state level. During November, the average of new jobless claims edged up by 2,250 to 408,000. In the week ended November 24, Labor reported that continuing jobless claims decreased by 100,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.21 million.

Policy makers from the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghi on Thursday indicated that while they considered a rate cut, the Governing Council had a "wide" discussion on interest rates but that the "prevailing consensus" was to leave them unchanged. Draghi also said policy makers discussed the possible "complexities" of implementing a negative deposit rate with no further elaboration from the panel. ECB key lending rate remains unchanged at 0.75% with deposit rate it pays on deposits left with the institution remains at 0%.

January crude oil fell $1.62 or 1.8%, to settle at $86.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for the third straight losing session, on the back of rising petroleum supplies and a weak economic outlook on the euro zone. Over the past two trading sessions, oil has fallen a total of 1.4%.

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Monster Energy Drinks Implied In Deaths

Daily Market Commentary for October 22, 2012
Reports released on Monday implicates Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST) energy drinks as a possible factor in the recent deaths of five people.
(read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

Caterpillar Inc.'s (CAT) on Monday reported Q3 earnings rose 49% but, lowered its 2012 outlook amid weaker-than-expected global economic conditions. CAT now expects per-share earnings of $9 to $9.25 on revenue of nearly $66 billion, compared with prior estimate for earnings of nearly $9.60 with revenue from $68 billion to $70 billion. Caterpillar reported a profit of $1.7 billion or $2.54 a share, up from $1.14 billion, or $1.71 a share, for same period in 2011. The latest period included a $273 million gain from the sale of its third-party logistics business. Revenue increased 4.6% to $16.45 billion while operating margin rose to 15.8% from 11.2%. For 2013, CAT expects sales and revenue to be nearly the same as 2012, plus or minus 5%. The construction and mining equipment maker benefited from an asset-sale gain and posted continued revenue growth. As the world's largest manufacturer of bulldozers, excavators and other construction machinery, Caterpillar is closely watched as a gauge of the strength of the global economy. "We are taking a pragmatic view of 2013--we're not expecting rapid growth, and we're not predicting a global recession," said Chairman and Chief Executive Doug Oberhelman. "While machine deliveries to end users have continued to hold up, our sales will probably remain relatively weak early in 2013 as dealers are likely to continue reducing inventories."

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) said Monday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration gave final approval for its once-daily extended-release epilepsy treatment, Oxtellar - an extended-release formulation of oxcarbazepine, is indicated as an adjunctive therapy in the treatment of partial seizures in adults and in children six to 17 years of age. Supernus Pharmaceuticals focus on developing and commercializing products for diseases of the central nervous system. The received a waiver from the FDA for the pediatric-study requirement for ages birth to one month and a deferral for submission of post-marketing assessments for children ages one month to six years. Its other products in development include treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD. he company also received tentative approval for its Trokendi XR epilepsy treatment. The Pharmaceutical firm has delayed plans to launch Trokendi XR to Q3 2013 from the end of 2012 on expectations that final FDA approval may not be made effective until a marketing-exclusivity period expires. Supernus shares were higher by at least 18% in pre-market trading Monday but ended the session down less than one percent, as the markets tumbled during the session.

Eli Lilly & Co.'s (LLY) announced their investigational once-weekly diabetes treatment showed positive results in lowering overall blood glucose levels in a series of Phase III studies. In three long-term studies ranging from 26 weeks to two years, dulaglutide for type 2 diabetes, showed improved glycemic control when compared with a placebo and with other diabetes drugs. At scientific meetings in 2013 and 2014, Lilly plans to give more details regarding the dulaglutide data. Lilly said the timing of its application for U.S. approval depends on satisfactory completion of U.S. Food and Drug Administration requirements for assessment of cardiovascular risk and plans to seek regulatory approval next year. Lilly shares ended the trading session on Monday, down slightly over 1%.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation system, CoreValve, from Medtronic Inc. (MDT) medical-device maker said studies showed it improved patients' one-year survival rate and quality of life, while its Symplicity system for renal denervation reduced patients' blood pressure after two years. Medtronic said initial one-year results of Advance study showed that patients implanted with the CoreValve System had a survival rate of 82.1% and a cardiovascular survival of 88.2%. "Transcatheter aortic valve implantation already has been shown to improve survival compared with standard therapy, but quality of life can be at least as important as survival in elderly patients, especially since TAVI patients can be frail with multiple comorbidities," said Johan Bosmans, professor at the University Hospital of Antwerp in Belgium. "We are extremely proud of this data which confirms that the benefits of transcatheter aortic therapy extend beyond survival even in this challenging patient population." Health-related quality of life measures also improved significantly at one and six months with the Advance study evaluating 996 patients at 44 TAVI centers in 12 countries. Medtronic also reported that Symplicity HTN-1, a series of pilot studies at 19 centers in Australia, Europe and the U.S. showed patients who received renal denervation treatment with the Symplicity system experienced blood pressure reduction at 24 months. The safety of renal denervation with the system was maintained after two years. "These data in nearly twice the number of patients previously reported at two years in this trial provide us with a better understanding of the patient response over time and add to the growing body of evidence supporting the safety and sustained blood pressure reduction of renal denervation treatment with the Symplicity system," said Markus Schlaich, professor of medicine and head of hypertension and kidney disease at the Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute in Melbourne, Australia.


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Fomc Quantitative Easing

Daily Market Commentary for August 22, 2012

U.S. stocks continued their losses for a second day on Wednesday after minutes from Federal Open Market Committee Minutes were released, showing an active discussion of a third round of quantitative easing. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com) http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx



Federal Open Market Committee Minutes from the July 31-Augist 1 meeting released Wednesday show that members of the Federal Reserve appear to be closer to a third round of bond buying by the Fed, known as QE3 - even as a less aggressive step of altering language on a low-rate pledge seems to be in the works. Economic data have stabilized since August 1, but it’s not at all clear that the improvement in the economic data has been 'substantial' enough to forestall further action by the Fed. "Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery," the minutes said. The first alternative for action listed is essentially what the markets anticipated for the August 1 meeting - a change in the date over which the central bank expected to keep its target range for the federal funds rate between 0% and 0.25%, perhaps in conjunction with a statement saying a 'highly accommodative stance' was likely to be maintained even as the recovery progressed. The second idea tossed around is what's commonly called 'QE3' - or in the words from the minutes, 'a new large-scale asset purchase program'. According to the minutes, 'many participants' said that a new large-scale asset-purchase program could “provide additional support for the economic recovery” by lowering long-term interest rates and by “contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly.” Others said that QE3 could help by boosting business and consumer confidence. With the economy growing at a mediocre 2% annual pace, with inflation subdued and unemployment at unacceptable levels, the Fed fears that the economy is too weak to sustain another blow from outside. With Europe sliding toward a breakup and Congress skidding closer to the fiscal cliff, the odds of another economic shock are rising daily.

The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday, existing home sales climbed 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in July, roughly in line with the 4.5 million consensus. The median price of existing home sales climbed 9.4% year-on-year to $187,300 while inventories rose 1.3% to 2.4 million units, representing 6.4 months of supply. Due to an embargo break by a news organization, the data was released early.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in a report on Wednesday that the U.S. government will run a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, or 7.3% of gross domestic product. The new budget deficit estimate came in slightly lower than March estimate of $1.2 trillion. If scheduled tax increases and spending cuts take effect in January, the nonpartisan CBO predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.1% clip in 2012, but fall by 0.5% between Q4 of 2012 and Q4 of 2013. Under that 'fiscal cliff', the U.S. would experience a recession, with U.S. unemployment jumping to nearly 9% in the second half of 2013 from its current 8.3%, CBO said. Previously, the CBO said growth would be 0.5% in 2013 under the fiscal cliff.


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