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Growth Aces' Daily Forex Analysis, Daily Trading Alerts for Forex Traders
Growth Aces
post Aug 14 2014, 12:04 AM
Post #1


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GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy. It offers you daily macroeconomic newsletter for forex traders The service covers the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD. You will receive the most important trading details: latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell signals and early heads-up about the potential trading opportunities. Growth Aces provides in-depth analysis resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 14 2014, 12:09 AM
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EUR/USD

•Euro zone industrial production contracted for a second month in a row in June. The industrial output fell by 0.3% mom after a drop by 1.1% mom in May vs. market expectations of a 0.3% rise. The monthly drop was due mainly to a 1.9% mom drop in production of non-durable consumer goods.
•Eurostat will publish the second quarter economic growth flash estimate on Thursday. We expect GDP growth of 0.1% qoq vs. a 0.1% rise in the first quarter.
•ECB policymaker Jens Weidmann is the opinion that it is up to each euro zone government to take the right steps internally for growth while monetary policy should not aim at weakening the euro to improve competitiveness. In his view recovery is weak but inflation and growth should gradually emerge.
•The EUR/USD fell slightly after weaker-than-expected industrial production data. A strong support has formed between 1.3330/40. A break below that level targets the July 11, 2013 low at 1.3295. However, in our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 1.3386 (high Aug 12), 1.3410 (high Aug 11), 1.3433 (high Aug 7)

Support: 1.3336 (low Aug 12), 1.3333 (low Aug 6), 1.3318 (low Nov 8)

EUR/GBP

•The unemployment rate fell as expected to 6.4% in the three months to June, its lowest level since the end of 2008 and down from 6.5% a month earlier. But average weekly earnings, including bonuses, fell by 0.2% yoy. That was a slightly bigger decline than a consensus forecast for a fall of 0.1%.
•The data showed the number of people in employment rose by 167k in the three months through June. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in the month of July fell by 33.6k compared with a revised 39.5k in June.
•The Bank of England slashed its forecast for wage growth on Wednesday and said that how fast wages picked up would be key to determining the timing and pace of interest rate rises. The Bank of England sees wage growth of 1.25% in 2014 (as compared to 2.5% estimated in May), 3.25% in 2015 (as compared to 3.5% in May), and 4% in 2016 (as compared to 3.75% in May). The central bank also forecast a bigger fall in unemployment than it had in its last set of forecasts in May, but otherwise left its projections for strong growth and contained inflation little changed. The central bank forecasts GDP growth at 3.5% in 2014 (as compared to 3.4% in May), 3.0% in 2015 (as compared to 2.9% in May) and 2.6% in 2016 (as compared to 2.8% in May). The Bank of England said it expected inflation - currently 1.9% - to be around 1.8% in two years' time.
•The governor of the central bank Mark Carney said: "We are not putting out a threshold, as you wouldn't expect us to have a single point threshold for some magic number of average weekly earnings - private sector, public sector, total economy - that would unlock the moment when we adjusted rates. We have to look at the prospects for wage growth." In our opinion a rate hike in February is the most likely scenario.
•The GBP fell on Wednesday after a Bank of England report forecast subdued growth in wages in coming months. We remain bullish on the EUR/GBP and keep our long position at 0.7950 with the target at 0.8045.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 0.7997 (high Aug 8), 0.8007 (high Jul 1), 0.8027 (high Jun 30)

Support: 0.7921 (session low Aug 13), 0.7915 (low Jul 31), 0.7910 (low Jul 30)

EUR/JPY


•A sales tax hike last quarter drove Japan's economy into its biggest contraction since the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The GDP fell in the second quarter by 6.8% annualized vs. growth of 6.1% seen in January-March. The April 1 sales tax hike took a heavy toll on household spending.
•In the opinion of Economics Minister Akira Amari Japan's economy was likely to continue moderate recovery as effect of tax hike begins to wane. He signaled the government's readiness to compile an extra budget later this year should growth in the third-quarter stay weak. He expects the economy to make pretty big rebound in the July-September period and is the opinion that there is no need to prepare an extra stimulus now.
•The BoJ released the minutes of the 14-15 July policy board meeting. At the July meeting the BOJ kept policy steady and slightly trimmed its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reflecting soft exports and a bigger-than-expected slump in household spending after the April sales tax hike. In the opinion of board members Japan's exports is likely to increase moderately, mainly against the backdrop of the recovery in overseas economies. A few members noted that structural factors, such as the shift of Japanese firms' production sites to overseas, could continue to restrain an increase in exports. Members concurred that the underlying trend in prices had been unchanged even after the consumption tax hike. Some members said that the two factors determining the trend in prices (an improvement in the output gap and a rise in inflation expectations) were firmly taking hold and thus upward pressure on prices would increase further.
•The BOJ' next step is likely to be additional monetary easing. The bank is focused mainly on inflation and the October review to the central bank's economic outlook would probably show inflation undershooting the projections.
•The JPY showed limited reaction to the data initially but slipped in European trade. Recent short-term recovery attempts have failed to close above the tankan line at 136.90. We are still short on the EUR/JPY.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 137.05 (21-dma), 137.13 ( high Aug 7), 137.24 (high Aug 6)

Support: 136.37 (low Aug 12), 135.73 (2014 low Aug 8), 135.00 (psychological level)

Growth Aces' current trading positions:

AUD/USD: short at 0.9330, target 0.9210, stop-loss 0.9315

EUR/JPY: short at 136.70, target 135.50, stop-loss 137.25

EUR/GBP: long at 0.7950, target 0.8045, stop-loss 0.7905

This post has been edited by Growth Aces: Aug 14 2014, 12:10 AM


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 14 2014, 10:41 AM
Post #3


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Member No.: 555,425



EUR/USD

Euro zone's GDP growth was flat in the second quarter dragged down by shrinking growth in Germany and stagnant France. The market consensus assumed growth by 0.1% qoq after a rise by 0.2% qoq in the first quarter. When compared with the same period last year the euro zone's GDP grew by 0.7%, as expected, after a 0.9% in the January-March period. The third largest euro zone’s economy, Italy, fell back into a technical recession in the second quarter. In Spain growth accelerated to 0.6% qoq, while the Netherlands bounced back to a quarterly growth of 0.5% after a 0.4% fall in the first three months of the year.
We have not known the structure of GDP growth. However, the commentary from the German statistics office and the French breakdown point to weaker investment and exports as the reasons for the slowdown.
The data show that the euro-zone economy remains too weak to eliminate the dangers of deflation. The worse-than-expected reading is also a warning ahead of the incoming quarter when European Union will feel hard impacts of sanction against Russia imposed in July.
Eurostat confirmed euro zone inflation fell in July to 0.4% yoy, the weakest annual rise since October 2009 when prices fell by 0.1% yoy. Annual core inflation (excluding energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices) stood unchanged at 0.8% yoy, for the second month in a row.
The EUR/USD fell to a day's low of 1.3348 after the German data, close to the low of 1.3333 hit earlier in the month. It slightly recovered afterwards. We see that sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains bearish. On the other hand, the support in the range of 1.3330/40 is very strong and the rate needs to break below 1.3330 to retain downward momentum. Comments from the Fed’s doves indicate there is a rising risk of a downturn caused by raising rates too soon. Such a rhetoric does not support the USD. In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 1.3416 (high Aug 13), 1.3424 (21-dma), 1.3433 (high Aug 7)

Support: 1.3342 (low Aug 13), 1.3336 (low Aug 12), 1.3333 (low Aug 6)



EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP has overcome a few resistance levels after the Bank of England surprised investors on Wednesday by signaling it was in no hurry to raise interest rates. We are still long the EUR/GBP but we have moved our stop-loss level to 0.7995 to save our profit.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 0.8027 (high Jun 30), 0.8031 (high Jun 26), 0.8063 (high Jun 12)

Support: 0.8001 (session low Aug 14), 0.7981 (hourly low Aug 14), 0.7968 (10-dma)



AUD/USD

The AUD/USD moved above our stop-loss level but we have taken a small profit on our short position at 0.9330. We will be looking to short again on the AUD/USD on higher levels. We still see potential for even breaking below May lows near 0.9200.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 0.9358 (high Aug 7), 0.9376 (high Aug 6), 0.9390 (high Jul 30)

Support: 0.9285 (session low Aug 14), 0.9245 (low Aug 12), 0.9236 (low Aug 8)



Growth Aces' current trading positions:

EUR/JPY: short at 136.70, target 135.50, stop-loss 137.25

EUR/GBP: long at 0.7950, target 0.8045, stop-loss 0.7995 (we have moved stop-loss from 0.7905 previously)

USD/CAD: long at 1.0905, target 1.1070, stop-loss 1.0840


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 18 2014, 04:15 AM
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EUR/USD


Germany's central bank is the opinion that the euro zone economy is expected grow more slowly than initially expected during the rest of this year. The Bundesbank said: “The geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe owing to the Ukraine conflict as well as in other parts of the world are now appearing to weigh more heavily on corporate sentiment.”
The international trade balance of the euro zone grew in June to EUR 16.8 bn from EUR 15.7 bn in June last year. The surplus was up from the EUR 15.4 bn recorded in May. The data do not yet reflect the effect of sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed by the European Union and Russia.
Policymakers will discuss their thinking around the labor markets of major economies at the August 21-23 meeting in Jackson Hole. Investors are eyeing clues about the path for monetary policy in the months ahead. The spotlight will be on Fed chair, Janet Yellen, who will speak on Friday. Other speakers include Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Central Bank of Brazil Governor Alexandre Antonio Tombini and Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent.
Another important events this week are US inflation figures for July scheduled for Tuesday and European flash PMIs on August 21.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculators reduced bullish bets on the USD in the latest week after net longs had hit a more than one-year high in the previous week. The value of the dollar's net long position slipped to USD 27 bn in the week ended August 12, from USD 29.41 bn previously. Net longs declined for the first time in four weeks.
Current trading idea of GrowthAces.com for the EUR/USD is to go long near 1.3360. We do not expect anything hawkish from Janet Yellen and in our opinion technical situation of the EUR/USD candlestick chart (triple hammers) supports the EUR/USD recovery.


Significant technical analysis’ levels:

Resistance: 1.3416 (high Aug 13), 1.3433 (high Aug 8), 1.3345 (high Aug 1)

Support: 1.3359 (low Aug 15), 1.3348 (low Aug 14), 1.3342 (low Aug 13)



EUR/GBP



The GBP rose after BoE Governor Mark Carney said in a newspaper interview that UK rates may have to increase even before the growth of real wages recovers. Recent comments from the central bank suggested the opposite and prompted markets to push back bets on a first hike.
Carney’s comments offset data from Rightmove that showed British house prices were cooling in August. Prices of property coming onto the market fell by 2.9% mom, leading to a slowing in the annual rate of price growth to 5.3% in August from 6.5% a month earlier.
The EUR/GBP reached our stop-loss level at 0.7995 but we have taken a small profit on our long position at 0.7950. In our opinion the reaction after Carney’s comments had short-term nature. At GrowthAces.com we remain bullish on the EUR/GBP and are still looking to go long on the EUR/GBP. However, we will wait for lower levels, near 0.7980.
CPI inflation data are scheduled for Tuesday. Our forecast is in line with market consensus. The Bank of England will publish minutes from its last monetary policy meetings on Wednesday. The minutes may reveal the first dissenting vote to hike rates since July 2011. MPC member Martin Weale is expected to have dissented in favour of a rate hike this month.


Significant technical analysis’ levels:

Resistance: 0.8037 (high Aug 15), 0.8063 (high Jun 12), 0.8075 (38.2% of 0.8400-0.7874)

Support: 0.7994 (session low Aug 18), 0.7981 (low Aug 13), 0.7977 (10-dma)



GrowthAces.com trading positions:

USD/CAD: long at 1.0905, target 1.1070, stop-loss 1.0840






--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 19 2014, 03:11 AM
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Member No.: 555,425




EUR/USD

•The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose to 55 in August from 53 in July. It was the third straight monthly gain. All three HMI components posted gains in August. The indices gauging current sales conditions and expectations for future sales each rose two points to 58 and 65, respectively. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased three points to 42. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said: "Factors contributing to this rise include sustained job growth, historically low mortgage rates and affordable home prices, which are helping to unleash pent-up demand."
•The USD steadied on Tuesday after Monday's appreciation on housing data. Yet the market is still showing no clear direction yet and traders are waiting for hints on Federal Reserve policy intentions. In our opinion Janet Yellen is unlikely to be hawkish in Jackson Hole.
•In line with the trading idea from our yesterday's newsletter we went long on the EUR/USD at the level of 1.3360. The target of GrowthAces.com is 1.3430 and the stop-loss is at the level of 1.3325.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3399 (high Aug 18), 1.3416 (high Aug 13), 1.3433 (high Aug 8)

Support: 1.3342 (low Aug 13), 1.3336 (low Aug 12), 1.333 (low Aug 6)

EUR/GBP

•Consumer prices rose fell 0.3% mom and rose 1.6% yoy in July vs. median forecast of 1.9% and the reading of 1.9% in June. Falls in clothing prices provided the largest contribution to the fall in the rate. Other large downward effects came from the alcohol, financial services and food & non-alcoholic drinks product groups. The largest, partially offsetting, upward effect came from the transport group.
•A fall in inflation rate reduces chance of 2014 rate rise. The EUR/GBP rose to 0.8025 after the release. The EUR/GBP reached its two-month high of 0.8037 last week after a Quarterly Inflation Report from the BoE that was perceived as dovish. At GrowthAces.com we are looking to go long on the EUR/GBP at 0.7990.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.8037 (high Aug 15), 0.8063 (high Jun 12), 0.8075 (38.2% of 0.8400-0.7874)

Support: 0.7983 (low Aug 19), 0.7981 (low Aug 13), 0.7954 (21-dma)

NZD/USD

•The Treasury cut the budget surplus forecast for each year through to 2018 by NZD 500 mn and said it expected the net debt to peak slightly higher this year at 26.8% of GDP from the budget's forecast of 26.4%. It also said it would take longer for the government to reduce its net debt level, with the target 20% of GDP now seen being reached a year later in 2021 from those in the budget. The official forecasts for economic growth were trimmed slightly to 3.8% for the year to March 2015 from 4% in the budget.
•The quarterly survey of expectations done on behalf of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed business managers forecast annual inflation to average 1.96% over the coming year from 2.08% in the previous survey in May. Two-year inflation expectations were 2.23% from 2.36%.
•The NZD depreciated on Tuesday after the government trimmed its forecast for growth and future budget surpluses. The NZD/USD was trading at 0.8435 on its local open. We used today's levels on the NZD/USD to go long at 0.8450. The target of GrowthAces.com is 0.8630 and stop-loss is at the level of 0.8370.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.8467 (200-dma), 0.8484 (high Aug 19), 0.8501 (high Aug 18)

Support: 0.8420 (low Aug 13), 0.8407 (low Aug 12), 0.8401 (low Jun 4)

GrowthAces.com trading positions:

EUR/USD: long at 1.3360, target 1.3430, stop-loss 1.3325

NZD/USD: long at 0.8450, target 0.8630, stop-loss 0.8370

USD/CAD: long at 1.0905, target 1.1070, stop-loss 1.0840

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces




--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 20 2014, 06:00 AM
Post #6


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Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425



EUR/USD

•US housing starts rose by 15.7% to a 1.093 mln annualized rate The reading was significantly stronger than forecast even when taking into account a big upward revision, to 945k from 893k in June. Building permits also beat expectations and went up 8.1% to 1.052 mln from 973k a month earlier.
•US CPI amounted to 0.1% mom and 2.0% yoy in July, in line with expectations. Core inflation amounted to 0.1% mom and 1.9% yoy vs. median forecast of 0.2% mom. Food prices rose by 0.4% after growth by 0.1% In June. Several adverse factors were behind the gain - livestock disease, a long, ongoing drought in the Southwest and Russian sanctions. Most components of core inflation saw small price gains. The only drops in significant subsectors were in transportation (-0.7%) and used cars and trucks (-0.3%).
•We have reached the stop-loss level on our long position on the EUR/USD at 1.3325. The EUR/USD remains under pressure. 1.3300 and 1.3295 (November 2013 low) barriers were knocked-out despite very large bids, which is a strongly bearish signal. Today's Fed minutes will define the strength of the USD for next hours.
•At GrowthAces.com we do not expect anything hawkish from Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. That is why we still see a room for the recovery on the EUR/USD.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3364 (high Aug 19), 1.3392 (21-dma), 1.3399 (high Aug 18)

Support: 1.3254 (low Sep 13), 1.3243 (low Sep 11), 1.3230 (low Sep 10)


GBP/USD

•The GBP rebounded from four-month lows against the USD after Bank of England minutes showed two policymakers voted for an interest rate hike in August. Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to start raising interest rates this month. The minutes surprised the economists who forecast a 9-0 vote. Our forecast assumed only one dissenter (Martin Weale).
•The survey of the Confederation of British Industry showed on Wednesday that British factory orders grew faster this month as overseas demand picked up. Total order book balance rose to +11 in August from +2 in July. The export order balance picked up to -3 from -16, again above its average reading of -20.
•In our opinion rise in the GBP will not rise much. We have another inflation reading released after the BoE meeting showing that CPI is well below the BoE's target of 2% now. Growth in wages, one of the most important indicator for the central bank, is slow and suggest considerable slack in the economy. Moreover, global macroeconomic outlook has worsened recently.
•GrowthAces.com stays flat on the GBP/USD. Our medium-term our outlook on the rate is slightly bullish. However, we are looking for better levels to buy the GBP/USD.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6722 (10-dma), 1.6728 (high Aug 19), 1.6739 (high Aug 18)

Support: 1.6567 (low Apr 7), 1.6555 (low Apr 4), 1.6507 (low Mar 26)


USD/JPY

•Japan's exports rose 3.9% yoy in July from a year earlier. The rise followed a revised 1.9% yoy decline in June. Imports rose 2.3% in July. That resulted in a trade deficit of JPY 964.0 bn.
•The USD/JPY gained in the wake of the strong US housing data. The rate broke above the 103.00 and July highs at 103.15. The break above this level is a bullish signal and suggest further rise of the USD/JPY. We are looking to go long on the USD/JPY at 102.65.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 103.43 (high Jul 4), 104.13 (high Apr 4), 104.34 (76.4% of 105.45-100.76)

Support: 102.91 (hourly low Aug 19), 102.63 (hourly low Aug 19), 102.53 (low Aug 19)

GrowthAces.com trading positions:

USD/CAD: long at 1.0905, target 1.1070, stop-loss 1.0840


Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 21 2014, 04:51 AM
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EUR/USD recovers despite disappointing PMI data.

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Index gave back the ground it made in July, posting 52.8 in August, down from 53.8. The fall was the fourth in six months and was sharper than the consensus forecast. At this level, the PMI is still consistent with GDP growth of about 0.3% per quarter, which would be an improvement on stagnation in the second quarter.
Output increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with service providers again reporting the sharper rate of expansion. However, rates of growth eased in both sectors. Flash Eurozone Services PMI amounted to 53.5 vs. 54.2 in July. Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI amounted to 50.8 vs. 51.8 in July.
Looking at the data by country, the marked divergence between the performances of Germany and France showed signs of narrowing. German index fell to 54.9. The French index inched up for the second month running but, at 50.0, it points to continued stagnation of economic activity. Further progress was made by the nations outside of the big-two economies.
Today’s PMI data put the pressure on the ECB to do more to support the euro-zone economy, although other major central banks start to move in the opposite direction. The most likely scenario is that the central bank will allow recent stimulus efforts to have an effect on the real economy before making any further moves.
The Fed’s minutes released on Wednesday said: “Labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run”. Policymakers agreed that improvements in the labor market over the last year had been greater than expected. The Fed has pledged to keep interest rates near zero for a considerable period after it wraps up a bond-buying stimulus program in October. The minutes intensified the debate that tightening cycle will take place sooner than later.
The USD appreciated after “hawkish” FOMC minutes. The EUR/USD opened the Asian session just below 1.3260 and then hit the session low at 1.3242 but did not break below this support level from September 11, 2013. We saw a slight recovery then, the EUR/USD did not react to weaker-than-expected PMI data. The next important support level is 1.3220 (61.8% of 1.2740-1.3995). In the opinion of GrowthAces.com the break below that level will be a strongly bearish signal. We stay flat on the EUR/USD.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3324 (high Aug 20), 1.3364 (high Aug 19), 1.3380 (21-dma)

Support: 1.3230 (low Sep 10), 1.3157 (low Sep 9), 1.3104 (low Sep 6)


GBP/USD hit by FOMC minutes and weak retail sales data

The GBP appreciated yesterday after minutes from the Bank of England's own last policy meeting showed the first dissenting votes on its policy committee for a rise in interest rates. However, hawkish message from the Fed sent the USD higher across the board.
Weaker-than-expected retail sales data released today added to the pressure on the GBP. Retail sales grew in July at a weaker pace than expected (0.1% mom and 2.6% yoy vs. market consensus of 0.4% mom). The Office for National Statistics said two out of the four main retail sectors (non-store retailing and non-food stores) had seen an increase in the quantity bought (volume). The largest contribution came from the non-food stores sector. The negative contribution was recorded in food and fuels.
We see that retail sales data excluding food and fuels are not that bad and still solid consumption of durable goods is a good sign. Despite hawkish BoE’s minutes yesterday we do not see three more members of the council voting for a rise in rates in November. However, the nearest macroeconomic data will be of key importance regarding further monetary policy.
We used current GBP/USD levels to go long. We are long at 1.6580 with the target of 1.6710 and stop-loss at 1.6535.


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6599 (hourly high Aug 21), 1.6680 (200-dma), 1.6695 (10-dma)

Support: 1.6555 (low Apr 4), 1.6460 (low Mar 24), 1.6453 (38.2% 1.5854-1.6823)


GrowthAces.com trading positions:
USD/CAD: long at 1.0905, target 1.1070, stop-loss 1.0925 (we have moved the stop-loss from 1.0840 previously)
GBP/USD: long at 1.6580, target 1.6710, stop-loss 1.6535


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 25 2014, 05:13 AM
Post #8


New MoneyMaker
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Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425



EUR/USD: The EUR fell after Draghi’s speech and weak Ifo reading.

The ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday in Jackson Hole that he was confident that stimulus steps announced in June, helped by a weaker euro, boost demand in the euro zone. He stressed, however, the central bank stands ready to do more. In his opinion recent growth data confirmed the recovery in the euro zone remained weak and promised to keep the policy stance accommodative for an extended period of time.
Ifo business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 companies, fell in August to 106.3 from 108 a month earlier, undershooting the median forecast of 107. Index of current situation amounted to 111.1 vs. 112.9 a month earlier and index of expectations fell to 101.7 from 103.4 in July. Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said Ifo expected growth to be "close to zero" in the third quarter.
The EUR/USD fell to 1.3185 in early Asian trade, its lowest since September 2013 and after short recovery tested the level again after poor Ifo reading. In the opinion of GrowthAces.com the outlook for the EUR/USD is bearish. However, we stay flat on this market.


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3221 (session high Aug 25), 1.3297 (high Aug 22), 1.3324 (high Aug 20)

Support: 1.3185 (session low Aug 25), 1.3157 (low Sep 9), 1.3104 (low Sep 6)



USD/JPY: Dovish Kuroda weakened the JPY.

The BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in Jackson Hole that the Bank of Japan might have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for some time to fully vanquish deflation. He added that the central bank's efforts to overcome deflation by stimulating Japan's economy with large-scale asset purchases was proving effective. In his opinion low long-term interest rates will likely not rise until the 2% target is reached and added that the BoJ's 2% inflation target, once met, could serve as a benchmark for wage negotiations.
Bulls has taken control of the USD/JPY market. Growth Aces’ trading idea is to go long at the level of 103.50.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 104.84 (high Jan 23), 104.92 (high Jan 16), 105.00 (psychological level)

Support: 103.50 (low Aug 22), 103.08 (high Jul 30), 102.90 (low Aug 20)



NZD/USD: We went long. The target is 0.8500.

The NZD/USD slumped to its lowest since late February, as the USD powered up after Fed Chair Janet Yellen appeared relatively less dovish than other central bank chiefs. GrowthAces.com went long on the NZD/USD on 0.8365 with the target of 0.8500 and stop-loss at 0.8320.



Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.8430 (high Aug 22), 0.8435 (high Aug 20), 0.8468 (200-dma)

Support: 0.8350 (61.8% 0.8052-0.8833), 0.8343 (low Mar 3), 0.8293 (low Feb 27)



GROWTHACES.COM TRADING POSITIONS:

NZD/USD: long at 0.8365, target 0.8500, stop-loss 0.8320


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 26 2014, 05:12 AM
Post #9


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Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425




GBP/USD: Still bearish outlook

•Although Scotland's pro-independence leader Alex Salmond won a final debate before a referendum next month, the GBP rose from a five-month low against the USD and pared losses against the EUR on Tuesday.
•Our outlook for the GBP/USD is bearish and our strategy is to go short at 1.6590. We expect bears to target levels below 1.6500.


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6599 (high Aug 25), 1.6633 (10-dma), 1.6680 (high Aug 20)

Support: 1.6566 (hourly low Aug 26), 1.6501 (daily low Aug 25), 1.6460 (low Mar 24)

NZD/USD: The kiwi hit by weak data

•New Zealand reported its first monthly trade deficit in nine months in July. The deficit for the month amounted to NZD 692 mln, taking the trade surplus for the year to July 31 to NZD 1.29 bn. The deficit was higher than median forecast of NZD 475 mn (and annual surplus of NZD 1.49 bn). Exports slipped 3.3% yoy to NZD 3.70 bn, as the value of goods shipped to China and Australia, New Zealand's biggest trading partners, fell further. It was the first fall in exports in 10 months. Imports fell 4.8% yoy.
•The NZD/USD fell on Tuesday after the release of surprisingly large trade deficit. The kiwi extended losses to as far as 0.8311, its weakest since February. We have taken small loss as our long position on the NZD/USD was stopped at 0.8320. We stand aside as the risk is too high on either side of the market.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.8405 (high Aug 25), 0.8430 (high Aug 22), 0.8435 (high Aug 20)

Support: 0.8293 (low Feb 27), 0.8259 (low Feb 24), 0.8212 (low Feb 7)

AUD/USD: We went long at 0.9305.
•AUD/USD opened slightly below 0.9300 and then fell to session low at 0.9272. The AUD/USD was under pressure after the NZD/USD broke its latest support at 0.8320. The AUD/USD returned to the opening level then.
•Our outlook for the AUD/USD is bullish. We went long today at the level of 0.9305 and expect the rate to go near July high. Our target is at 0.9470 and stop-loss at 0.9230.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.9324 (high Aug 25), 0.9330 (high Aug 22), 0.9345 (high Aug 19)

Support: 0.9235 (low Aug 21), 0.9229 (low Jun 3), 0.9210 (low May 29)


GROWTHACES.COM TRADING POSITIONS:

AUD/USD: long at 0.9305, target 0.9470, stop-loss 0.9230



--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 27 2014, 04:04 AM
Post #10


New MoneyMaker
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Group: Member
Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425



EUR/USD: Schaeuble: Draghi has been "overinterpreted"
•Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang told the Passauer Neue Presse in an interview that ECB governor Mario Draghi had been "overinterpreted" after he said he would use "all the available instruments" should inflation weaken more.
•The EUR/USD appreciated slightly in reaction to comments from Schaeuble, after falling as low as 1.3151 in Asian trade. We keep our bearish outlook for the EUR/USD. However, we see potential for some corrective moves and suggest caution in taking short positions.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3221 (high Aug 25), 1.3297 (high Aug 22), 1.3324 (high Aug 20)

Support: 1.3105 (low Sep 6), 1.3089 (low Jul 19), 1.3051 (low Jul 16)

AUD/USD: AUD continues to perform well
•The value of construction work done in Australia fell in the second quarter by 1.2% qoq (seasonally adjusted) vs. median forecast of decline by 0.3% qoq. The AUD/USD fell below 0.9300 after the release but then recovered to test overnight high of 0.9331.
•Construction data along with key CAPEX number released in the evening EDT will provide a guide for next-week Q2 GDP reading.
•The AUD continues to perform well against its major crosses - EUR/AUD and AUD/JPY. At GrowthAces.com we keep our long position on the AUD/USD with the target of 0.9470.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.9345 (high Aug 19), 0.9358 (high Aug 7), 0.9360 (50-dma)

Support: 0.9272 (low Aug 26), 0.9235 (low Aug 21), 0.9229 (low Jun 3)

USD/JPY: Waiting for better levels to go long
•Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura is the opinion that Japan's government needs to be more cautious about a coming decision on raising the national sales tax than it was on the previous hike as the economy reaches a "make-or-break point". Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is to decide around the end of the year whether to proceed with a plan to raise the tax to 10% next year after raising it to 8% from 5%. Nishimura said he hopes that the Bank of Japan would decide on further monetary easing. In his opinion it is too early to debate exit from monetary stimulus given that deflation has not been conquered yet. Koichi Hamada, the outside adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is the opinion that Japan could soften the impact of a planned sales tax increase by raising it in stages rather than in a single hike.
•Japan's government in its monthly report stuck to its overall view of the economy, which it had raised in July. Still, the government flagged the risk of a prolonged impact of the tax hike, as well as weaker overseas economies.
•Investors are waiting for macroeconomic releases scheduled for Friday (Thursday evening EDT) - CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output and retail sales. The data could strengthen expectations of further BoJ's easing before the end of the year.
•The trading idea of GrowthAces.com is to go long at 103.80. The strong support is at the level of 103.75 (Tuesday low).

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 104.17 (high Aug 17), 104.49 (high Aug 25), 104.84 (high Jan 23)

Support: 103.75 (low Aug 27), 103.50 (low Aug 22), 103.35 (38.2% of 101.51-104.49)

GROWTHACES.COM TRADING POSITIONS:

AUD/USD: long at 0.9305, target 0.9470, stop-loss 0.9230



--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 28 2014, 07:38 AM
Post #11


New MoneyMaker
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Group: Member
Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425





GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions:

AUD/USD: long at 0.9305, target 0.9470, stop-loss 0.9230
USD/JPY: long at 103.80, target 104.70, stop-loss 103.30
GBP/USD: long at 1.6575, target 1.6690, stop-loss 1.6530


EUR/USD: US Q2 GDP revised up

The U.S. economy rebounded more strongly than initially estimated in the second quarter. GDP expanded at a 4.2% annual rate instead of the previously reported 4.0%, reflecting upward revisions to business spending and exports. Domestic demand increased at a 3.1%, instead of the previously reported 2.8%. Growth in consumer spending was unrevised at a 2.5% rate. The relatively smaller inventory build means less stock overhang, which bodes well for third-quarter GDP growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell for a second straight week to a seasonally adjusted 298k for the week ended August 23 vs. expectations of a rise to 300k.
The USD appreciated against major currencies after the release. The EUR/USD was traded above 1.3200 before the reading but then fell near 1.3170. We stay flat on the EUR/USD and see a possibility of recovery in the short term. Our medium-term outlook is still bearish.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3222 (hourly high Aug 28), 1.3297 (high Aug 22), 1.3324 (high Aug 20)

Support: 1.3105 (low Sep 6), 1.3089 (low Jul 19), 1.3051 (low Jul 16)



USD/JPY: Rising risk aversion poses a threat to our long position

Ukrainian President Poroshenko said on Thursday Russian forces had been brought into Ukraine. He called an urgent meeting of Ukraine's security and defence council to decide the next steps to take in the crisis.
Rising risk aversion was the main reason for appreciation of safe-haven assets, including JPY. The USD/JPY fell as low as 103.56, however significant buy orders are noted in the area 103.50/60 and the rate did not manage to break below the support level. The next key support level is situated at 103.35 (38.2% of 101.51-104.49). We are ahead of important macroeconomic releases in Japan. Some weaker readings are likely to push the USD/JPY up. We maintain our long position. The main risk comes from uncertain geopolitical situation.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 104.16 (high Aug 27), 104.49 (high Aug 25), 104.84 (high Jan 23)

Support: 103.50 (low Aug 22), 103.35 (38.2% of 101.51-104.49), 103.15 (high Jul 30)



AUD/USD higher after better CAPEX data

Sales of new homes in Australia slipped by 5.7% mom in July but still remained at a historically high level. The Housing Industry Association said its survey of large builders showed sales of private sector new houses fell 4.7% mom while multi-unit sales went down by 10.9% mom after jumping in June.
Australian business investment beat expectations last quarter with an increase of 1.1% qoq (seasonally adjusted) vs. expected decline by 0.3% qoq. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest survey of planned spending for 2014/15 came in at AUD 145.2 bn, topping estimates of around AUD 142 bn.
The AUD/USD rose after the data to 0.9373 taking out the stops above 0.9355 and breaking above important resistance levels (50-dma at 0.9359) and then fell slightly. The strong resistance level is now in the area of 0.9375/80, breaking above which would be a clear bullish signal.
At GrowthAces.com we maintain our long position on the AUD/USD with the target of 0.9470.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.9373 (session high Aug 28), 0.9388 (high Jul 30), 0.9416 (high Jul 29)

Support: 0.9300 (low Aug 27), 0.9272 (low Aug 26), 0.9235 (low Aug 21)



GBP/USD: Time for long position

We saw a turnaround from 1.6537 lows tested yesterday. The GBP/USD broke above the previous top and was traded near 1.6600. The picture is looking more positive for the GBP bulls now. We went long on the USD/GBP at 1.6575 with the target of 1.6690 (200-dma). Our stop-loss is at 1.6530.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6615 (hourly high Aug 28), 1.6680 (high Aug 20), 1.6690 (200-dma)

Support: 1.6568 (hourly low Aug 28), 1.6537 (low Aug 27), 1.6501 (low Aug 25)


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Aug 29 2014, 07:27 AM
Post #12


New MoneyMaker
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Group: Member
Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425



GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions:
•AUD/USD: long at 0.9305, target 0.9470, stop-loss 0.9230
•USD/JPY: long at 103.80, target 104.70, stop-loss 103.30
•GBP/USD: long at 1.6575, target 1.6690, stop-loss 1.6530


EUR/USD: EZ inflation eased, as expected.
•Euro zone inflation has eased slightly to 0.3% yoy, as expected, and down from 0.4% yoy in July. The reading was in line with the consensus forecast and left inflation at its lowest rate since October 2009.
•Annual energy inflation fell from -1.0% to -2.0%. Meanwhile, food, alcohol and tobacco inflation remained at -0.3%. HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose to 0.9% yoy from 0.8% yoy in the previous month.
•Unemployment rate amounted in July to 11.5%. The rise by 4,000in the number of unemployed was the first increase since September 2013. This is the sign that the labour market recovery is fading and will not generate pressure on wages and prices in the near future. Any immediate action coming at the ECB's policy meeting scheduled for September 4 is not considered likely.
•German July retail sales have come in much worse than expected at -1.4% mom and 0.7% yoy from 0.4% yoy in the previous month and the consensus forecast of 0.1% mom.
•The EUR/USD rose to a day's high of 1.3195 soon after the inflation data. The investors are focused on the ECB's meeting next week. We do not expect extraordinary dovish tone from M. Draghi. On the other hand, geopolitical situation and poor macroeconomic data from the Euro-zone will keep the EUR weak. We stay flat on the EUR/USD.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3222 (hourly high Aug 28), 1.3297 (high Aug 22), 1.3324 (high Aug 20)

Support: 1.3151 (low Aug 27), 1.3105 (low Sep 6), 1.3089 (low Jul 19)


USD/JPY: Weaker Japan's macroeconomic data supported USD/JPY.
•The Ministry of Economy, Industry and Tradeannounced that industrial output rose 0.2% mom, much less median forecast of 1.0% mom. Manufacturers expect output to rise 1.3% in August and 3.5% in September. But the ministry said there was uncertainty on whether production will rise as companies had continued to overestimate their outlook plans.
•Household spending fell 5.9% yoy in July. The reading was much weaker than forecast. Poor data were the result of higher sales tax and bad weather that kept consumers at home instead of going out shopping. On the other hand, Japanese retail sales rose 0.5% yoy in July. The data beat expectations of 0.1% yoy.
•Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the impact of April's sales tax hike on the economy is gradually easing but it needs close monitoring from now on. Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said on Friday there is no need to be so pessimistic about household spending, after data showed it had fallen more than expected in July.
•Japan's July consumer prices were up 3.4% yoy, in line with expectations. The central bank of Japan estimates that the sales tax hike carried out in April has pushed the inflation rate up by about 2 pps. The bank aims at lifting the rate to 2% in fiscal 2015, without the effect of the tax hike. The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, amounted to 3.3% yoy. The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 2.3% yoy in July.
•Japan's unemployment rate went up to 3.8% in July vs. the median forecast of 3.7% and the reading of 3.7% in the previous month.
•Japan's housing starts fell by 14.1% yoy in July. The reading was weaker than the median forecast (a fall by 10.5% yoy). Housing starts declined by 9.5% yoy in June. Starts totaled 72k and this was the fifth consecutive fall in yoy terms. Construction orders rose 24.4% yoy vs. a rise of 9.3% yoy in June.
•In line with the scenario of GrowthAces.com weaker Japanese macroeconomic data pushed the USD/JPY up. The rate is going to test the level of 104.00. The break above the level will open the way to 104.49 (August high). Technical situation supports further gains of the USD/JPY (tenkan and kijun lines are positively aligned). We maintain our long position. Geopolitical situation is still the main risk for our strategy.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 104.16 (high Aug 27), 104.49 (high Aug 25), 104.84 (high Jan 23)

Support: 103.66 (session low Aug 29), 103.50 (low Aug 22), 103.35 (38.2% of 101.51-104.49)



GBP/USD higher after better UK macro data.
•British house prices rose in August at a faster monthly pace than expected. Mortgage lender Nationwide said house prices rose 0.8% mom and 11.0% yoy in August compared with a 0.2% mom and 10.6% yoy rise in July. The reading was higher than expected (0.2% mom, 10.1% yoy).
•Polling company GfK said its monthly consumer confidence index rose to +1 in August from -2 in July.
•The GBP strengthened after strong macroeconomic data. The USD/GBP broke above 1.6600, which gives us more faith to our long position opened yesterday. We still see the target at 1.6690, near 200-dma.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6615 (hourly high Aug 28), 1.6680 (high Aug 20), 1.6690 (200-dma)

Support: 1.6568 (hourly low Aug 28), 1.6537 (low Aug 27), 1.6501 (low Aug 25)


--------------------
GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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Growth Aces
post Today, 04:31 AM
Post #13


New MoneyMaker
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Group: Member
Posts: 13
Joined: 13-August 14
Member No.: 555,425



GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions:

AUD/USD: long at 0.9305, target 0.9470, stop-loss 0.9230

USD/JPY: long at 103.80, target 104.70, stop-loss 104.00 (we have locked the profit and moved the stop-loss to 104.00 from 103.30 previously)

GBP/USD: long at 1.6575, target 1.6690, stop-loss 1.6530



EUR/USD hurt ahead the ECB by Ukraine turmoil.

•The final seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI posted 50.7 in August, down from 51.8 in July, its lowest reading since July last year. The reading was also below its earlier flash estimate of 50.8.
•PMI data signalled a broad easing in the manufacturing recoveries in the euro zone. Ireland was a noticeable exception, with its PMI at the highest level since the end of 1999. Greek PMI also went surprisingly up above the 50.0 mark in August. France remained the laggard, with its PMI signalling the sharpest rate of decline since May 2013.
•The EUR/USD hit a year-low 1.3119 on Monday mainly because of worries about the crisis in Ukraine. The European Union threatened Russia with new trade sanctions if Moscow fails to start reversing its action in Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted measures would be ready within a week.
•In the opinion of GrowthAces.com the outlook for the EUR/USD remains bearish. The EUR is being used as a funding currency for carry trades, as Euro zone short-term yields continue to fall. There is still strong uncertainty because of the crisis in Ukraine. Investors are focused on the ECB's meeting this week. We do not expect extraordinary dovish statement from the ECB. The disappointment after the decision of the central bank could push the EUR/USD higher that could be used to go short.


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.3196 (high Aug 29), 1.3222 (high Aug 28), 1.3297 (high Aug 22)

Support: 1.3105 (low Sep 6), 1.3089 (low Jul 19), 1.3051 (low Jul 16)


GBP/USD retreats after weaker UK manufacturing PMI.


•The upturn in the UK manufacturing slowed further in August. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI posted 52.5, down from 54.8 in July, to record its lowest reading since June last year.
•The fall in the headline index was driven by the new orders component, which dropped to its lowest since April 2013 down from 56.8 in July in its biggest one-month drop in two years. The rate of growth in payroll numbers slowed, hitting a 14-month low.
•The survey showed there was no inflation pressure in the manufacturing sector. Purchase price inflation ticked higher in August, reaching a seven-month peak, but remained low by the historical standards of the survey.
•The PMI data hurt the GBP. The GBP/USD reached the level of 1.6645 before the release but then the rate fell below 1.6620. The beginning of the week was, however, encouraging for long position of GrowthAces.com. We maintain our target at the level of 1.6690 (slightly below 200-dma).


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.6680 (high Aug 20), 1.6695 (200-dma), 1.6728 (high Aug 19)

Support: 1.6587 (hourly low Sep 1), 1.6564 (low Aug 29), 1.6537 (low Aug 27)


AUD/USD: All eyes on the RBA and GDP this week.


•The AUD/USD has not reacted to slightly lower-than-expected Chinese PMI data (51.1 in August vs. median forecast of 51.2 and 51.7 in July).
•Monday brought mixed data from Australian economy. The value of stocks held by Australian private businesses in the second quarter increased by 0.8% qoq (in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms) vs. market consensus of 0.2% qoq. The reading is a good sign before Wednesday's (NYSE:GMT) Q2 GDP release. Higher data on inventories reduce the risk of a weak GDP figure. On the other hand, Australian company gross operating profits for the second quarter fell by 6.9% qoq vs. expectations of fall by 1.8%.
•The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 2.50% on Tuesday. The tone of its statement will play key role. However, in the opinion of GrowthAces.com much more important event for the AUD/USD remains Wednesday's (GMT) Q2 GDP release.
•Today's rally was encouraging for our long position on the AUD/USD. The nearest strong resistance level is 0.9359 (50-dma).


Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.9359 (50-dma), 0.9374 (high Aug 28), 0.9389 (high Jul 30)

Support: 0.9333 (low Aug 28), 0.9300 (low Aug 27), 0.9272 (low Aug 26)

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces


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GrowthAces.com is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. GrowthAces.com offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.
We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on http://growthaces.com to get daily analysis for forex traders to read the full version of our analysis right away. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At GrowthAces.com we give our best to you – always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.

Thank you for reading.

Growth Aces
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