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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 01/12/2009 |
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 Jan 11 2010, 02:22 AM
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MMG Member
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Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 11. 2010
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance
The Trade Balance index will be published tomorrow (Jan 12) in the US, Britain and Canada.
The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments.
Export data can give reflection on the country's growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the domestic currency.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency.
Analysts predict a reading of -32.90B for the USD, -7.10B for the GBP and 0.40B for the CAD.
--- Euro DollarThe Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 1.4332, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.4407 & 1.4485. But this rising move have bumped into (And slightly surpassed) the trend line which was the center of our attention all last week, and caused a notable reversal close to 1.4485. Thus, the Asian session top 1.4531 will be an important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365.
Support:
• 1.4485: important previous resistance close to last week’s high.
• 1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
• 1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
• 1.4531: Asian session high.
• 1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
• 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
--- USD/JPYAlthough it has reached 93.75, the Dollar-Yen has closed obviously on the negative side, below the important trend line on the daily charts. The price broke the support specified in Friday’s report, and successfully reached the first suggested target 92.20. We have explained the importance of Friday’s closing in the last report, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will be on the watch for this line which is currently at 93.11, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 92.20 (and as this report is being prepared we are trading only pips above it). Breaking the resistance 93.11 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 92.20 would open the way to a drop towards 91.51 & 90.76.
Support:
• 92.20: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 91.51: obvious resistance area on the hourly chart.
• 93.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 93.11: the falling trend line from 101.43 on the daily charts.
• 94.05: Aug 28th high.
• 94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high.
--- Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for technical and fundamental analysis.
---
DisclaimerTrading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Jan 12 2010, 01:16 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 12, 2010
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales
Traders of USD await the publication of the Core Retail Sales report.
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of 0.30%, down from the previous 1.20%.
--- Euro DollarThe Euro did not succeed in its first attempt to break the trend line we talked about yesterday. And also, the price did not move all too much, leaving yesterdays Asian session top 1.4531 as the important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365.
Support:
1.4485: important previous resistance close to last weeks high.
1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.4531: Asian session high.
1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
--- USD/JPYWe will maintain a negative bias towards this pair, and it is enough to take a look at the attached chart to know the reason why. Dollar-Yen is currently trading below the rising trend line on the hourly chart, and it is vulnerable to a big drop. We explained in the last two reports the importance of Fridays closing, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will place our focus on the broken trend line which is currently at 92.40, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 91.70. Breaking the resistance 92.40 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 91.70 would open the way to a drop towards 90.76 & 89.79.
Support:
91.70: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75.
Resistance:
92.40: the retest level for the broken trend line on the hourly chart.
94.05: Aug 28th high.
94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high.
--- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools.
---
DisclaimerTrading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Jan 13 2010, 02:30 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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ForexPros Daily Analysis January 13, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High
Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the
world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk
through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to
identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where
profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online
Trading Academy and ForexPros. Click here t o join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
Traders anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims report
tomorrow, January 14.
Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly
report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of
the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer
people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD.
Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 434.00K.
---Euro DollarFor the second day in a row, the Euro did not create any major or
technically meaningful moves. We maintained a trading range below Monday's
top 1.4555, and above the Asian session bottom for the same day 1.4452. It
seems like this trading range is getting tighter & tighter, which is a price
behavior that usually happens before large moves. The borders of this tight
area are drawn with the two small trend lines on the hourly chart which are
at 1.4531 & 1.4464. Thus, breaking any of these levels will move the Euro in
the direction of the break. If we break the resistance 1.4531 the odds of
going above 1.46 will be high, where the attractive targets 1.4625 & 1.4678
await. But if we break the support 1.4464, the Euro will fall again
targeting 1.4409 first, then 1.4331. And as it is the case with all tight
ranges, it is highly preferred not to take a bias towards any direction
before breaking the limits of the tight range.
Support:
* 1.4485: the trend line that limits the tight area from below.
* 1.4409: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
* 1.4331: previous well known support/resistance.
Resistance:
* 1.4531: the trend line that limits the tight area from above.
* 1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
* 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
---USD/JPYExactly as we have expected, Dollar-Yen broke yesterday's support 91.70 and
successfully reached the suggested target 90.76, stopping only 5 pips below
it, before bouncing back above 91. As we can see on the attached chart, this
pair has bumped into a support that caused it to bounce more than 60 pips
until now. Reaching 90.76 is expected to provide a chance to create a
correction for the whole fall from 93.75, which will ideally target 91.87 &
92.59. But before talking about such a correction we should see a break of
short term resistance 91.33. If the price goes back to falling, and break
short term support 90.95, the down trend will continue, and will target
90.35, and later the important 89.79.
Support:
* 90.95: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
* 90.35: support/resistance area on the 4-hour chart.
* 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75.
Resistance:
* 91.33: intraday top.
* 91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
* 94.62: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on forex software see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Jan 18 2010, 03:02 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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ForexPros Daily Analysis January 18, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision
Traders are looking forward to the publication tomorrow (January 19), of the Bank of Canada, regarding short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 0.25%.
---Euro Dollar We will put all our focus for today on 1.4299, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last week’s report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555.
Support:
• 1.4299: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4176: Sep 1st low.
Resistance:
• 1.4421: a falling trend line on the intraday charts and hourly chart.
• 1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
• 1.4555: Jan 11th high.
---USD/JPYDollar-Yen tried to break 90.76 on Friday, before going back above it after an short-lived attempt, and stayed above it until the weekly close. But on the other hand, the internal structure of the last two moves: the rise from 90.71 & the fall from 92.03 could be read as parts 1 & 2 of a 3-way correction, or in the language of Elliott Wave analysis: waves a & b. In this case, a similar up move to the one from 90.71 will appear before breaking this important bottom. Such a move will ideally target 91.87 & 92.59. And given that short term resistance is at 91.30, a break here would indicate this move is already underway. On the other hand, breaking 90.76 will eliminate this assumption, and indicates a continuation of the drop on the last day of the week, which is expected to hit this pair hard, and drag it to 89.79 and may be 89.22.
Support:
• 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
• 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
• 89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
• 91.30: the falling trend line from 93.75.
• 91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
• 92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on forex quotes see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Jan 19 2010, 01:31 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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ForexPros Daily Analysis January 19, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Core CPI (MoM)
Traders look forward to the publication of the Canadian Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be released tomorrow (January 20). The CPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. Also, it measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.20% versus a past reading of 0.40%.
---Euro DollarWe will put all our focus for today on 1.4303, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last week’s report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is still at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555.
Support:
• 1.4303: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4176: Sep 1st low.
Resistance:
• 1.4421: yesterday’s resistance that stopped the rise.
• 1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
• 1.4555: Jan 11th high.
---USD/JPYDollar-Yen broke the support that we put under our surveillance in the last few days 90.76, and although this break was not followed by a big move, closing below it indicates momentum in the downtrend. Now, it is important for the price to stay below the most important resistance 90.90, which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. Staying under this trend line in specific means that the downtrend is going on. Short term support is 90.37, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 90.90, we do not expect it to be broken today, but if a surprise happens, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44.
Support:
• 90.37: intraday support.
• 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
• 89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
• 90.90: the falling trend line from 93.75.
• 91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
• 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on stock prices see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer:Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Jan 20 2010, 06:28 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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ForexPros Daily Analysis January 20, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
Traders anticipate the publication tomorrow (21 January) of the Initial Jobless Claims. It is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight change from the previous reading of 444.00k to a future reading of 440.00k.
---Euro DollarThe Euro broke yesterdays support 1.4303, and successfully reached both suggested targets for this break 1.4216 & 1.4176. Reaching areas below 1.4216 so fast, indicates how solid this break was, and confirms its importance. But, now after we have reached here, we should keep open minds towards every possibility. The most probable one is of course a continuation of the Dollar rally, and dragging the Euro lower and lower. This scenario gains more confidence if and when we break 1.4185, and in this case the next set of targets will be 1.4103 and the important 1.4006. But, if it turns out that todays movement will be opposite to the direction of the break we witnessed yesterday, the Euro will break the resistance at 1.4216, and in this case we may see a strong rise targeting Fibonacci retracement levels 1.4322 & 1.4371.
Support:
1.4185: the most important intraday support for the last few hours.
1.4103: Aug 10th low.
1.4176: the important bottom of Jul 29th.
Resistance:
1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4322: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4371: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---USD/JPYIn an unexpected fashion, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 90.90 and challenged the resistance area near 91.30, in a break that is completely opposite to the technical outlook that followed the break of 90.76. This break makes the picture unclear, and we will be awaiting clearer signals by breaking the support o resistance of the day 90.76 & 91.30. Short term support is 90.76, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 91.30, and if broken, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44.
Support:
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
91.30: a well known support/resistance area which stopped yesterdays rise.
91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on trading courses see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 9 2010, 01:40 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
Joined: 29-July 09
Member No.: 177,180
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 9, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
US traders look forward to Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
---Euro DollarThe Euro kept trading above the support 1.3620, and started to rise, breaking the resistance 1.3666, and reaching 1.3728 until this moment without reaching the target 1.3752. As we said yesterday, with Friday’s move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present, but we need a break of 1.3745 before we can say the odds favor that. Short-term resistance is at 1.3745, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be 1.3805 & 1.3857. While the support is at 1.3666, and breaking it would bring back Friday’s target under the spotlight: 1.3582 & 1.3516.
Support:
• 1.3666: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts.
• 1.3582: Apr 6th high.
• 1.3516: Apr 2nd high.
Resistance:
• 1.3745: important intraday resistance.
• 1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
---USD/JPYDollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterday’s report, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursday’s low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.23, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, and if broken the first target would be 87.35. Short term resistance is at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterday’s drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
• 89.23: the rising trend line from Thursday’s low on intraday charts.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
• 87.35: Dec 9th low.
Resistance:
• 89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 10 2010, 02:36 AM
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MMG Member
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 10, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
The traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, January 11. The claims are a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight decline from the past reading to a reading of 460.00k.
---Euro DollarThe Euro broke yesterday’s resistance 1.3745, and successfully reached the first target 1.3805, which enhances our assumption of having a corrective rebound. As we said yesterday, with Friday’s move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of today’s resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3743, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
Support:
• 1.3743: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts.
• 1.3666: a well known previous support/resistance area.
• 1.3582: Apr 6th high.
Resistance:
• 1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3936: Feb 1st high.
---USD/JPYDollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterday’s report, although it tried to break 89.87 more than once, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursday’s low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.51, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is still at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterday’s drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
• 89.51: the rising trend line from Thursday’s low on intraday charts.
• 88.81: Friday’s low.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 11 2010, 01:13 AM
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MMG Member
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 11, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales (MoM)
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Core Retail Sales tomorrow, January 12. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.40%.
---Euro DollarThe Euro stopped only 6 pips above the resistance specified in yesterday’s report, and this confirms the importance of 1.3805. Today, this level has double importance, with the falling trend line from 1.4577 touching the above mentioned Fibonacci level. As we said yesterday, with Friday’s move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of today’s resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is still at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3752, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
Support:
• 1.3752: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term..
• 1.3665: a well known previous support/resistance area.
• 1.3582: Apr 6th high.
Resistance:
• 1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025, and the falling trend line from 1.4577.
• 1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3936: Feb 1st high.
---USD/JPYAfter last Thursday’s sharp drop, we can say that the Dollar-Yen has moved horizontally in the same areas for a whole week, in a period of excitement-free trading. And as the important support & resistance levels for the short term approaching each other, expecting a large move to be just around the corner is a completely logical thing. What is worth mentioning is that during last Thursday’s drop, we have came close to the long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23, and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is little changed at 90.04, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting last Thursday’s drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
• 89.75: important intraday support.
• 88.81: Friday’s low.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 90.04: important intraday resistance.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 12 2010, 09:25 AM
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Belive me Guys Forexpros is the BEST There is There signals, thier Educations are GREAT. Thats sign up with Forexpros. You Won't regret it
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Feb 15 2010, 02:01 AM
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 15, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
European traders look forward to the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment tomorrow, February 15. The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment determines the sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism.
It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a decline from the past reading to a reading of 42.50.
---Euro DollarThe Euro broke the support 1.3662 and fell strongly as we expected, reaching the first suggested target 1.3582 successfully, and stopping only 5 pips before the second target 1.3525, Which confirmed a continuation of the downtrend, and an inability of using any chance to create a notable correction. And today, the continuation of the trend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line that is drawn on the attached chart. Short term support is are 1.3572 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Friday’s fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3675, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well.
Support:
• 1.3572: Apr 6th high.
• 1.3525: May 14th low.
• 1.3422: important line on intraday charts.
Resistance:
• 1.3675: last Wednesday’s low.
• 1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
---USD/JPYFor another day, Dollar-Yen frustrated our hopes for a big move, and stayed another day trading in very tight ranges, and very boring ones! We have not had our major move until now. But this very limited activity should come to an end soon, and a trend will be born, which will bring back some excitement to this pair, after a very boring week. Thus, we will await a break of the support or resistance of the day, and in case we get one, we expect to see a sizeable move in the direction of the break. Our eyes will be on the support 89.83, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the first of this week, targeting 89.22, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance is at 90.22, and breaking it would target 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76.
Support:
• 89.83: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
• 89.22: last Friday’s low.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer:Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 16 2010, 01:52 AM
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Posts: 376
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 16, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. They are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.
---Euro DollarThe Euro did not break the resistance nor the support specified in yesterday’s report, and traded in a tight range for the past 24 hours. The resistance that is considered the upper limit for the downtrend is 1.3720, and as long as the price is below this level, we favor more downside activity, But the technical outlook changes dramatically the minute this level is broken. The continuation of the downtrend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line drawn from 1.3838. Short term support is are 1.3616 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Friday’s fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3720, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well.
Support:
• 1.3616: the rising trend line from 1.3530 on intraday charts.
• 1.3525: May 14th low.
• 1.3422: May 18th low.
Resistance:
• 1.3720: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on intraday charts.
• 1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
---USD/JPYYesterday, Dollar-Yen did not break the support or resistance specified in the report, but it did break 89.83 during the Asian session. This break holds a lot of importance for the short term, since it is a break for the hourly trend line rising from the important bottom 88.53. Thus we will await a break of the Asian session low 89.70 to confirm the break of this trend line, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the coming hours, targeting 89.12, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance stays at 90.22, and the negative technical outlook will not change unless we decisively break this resistance. If this break happens, we would target the important Fibonacci levels 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76.
Support:
• 89.70: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
• 89.12: Jan 27th low.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 17 2010, 01:57 AM
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 17, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
---
Fundamental Analysis: BOJ Press Conference
The Bank of Japan will be holding a press conference, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.
---Euro DollarThe Euro broke the resistance 1.3720 and successfully and accurately reached the first suggested target 1.3778 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3780). This break moves the importance to the most important Fibonacci resistance for the short term at 1.3836, where we see a double importance for today. Breaking this level would indicate that the Euro has broken free from pressure and downtrend (for the short term at least), and we will await any signals of a direction change for the medium term. Short term resistance is at 1.3778 and we are trading pips below it now. If it is broken, we would target a test of the most important 1.3836, and if broken, we would target 1.3911 as a first, temporary, modest target on the way higher. Short term support is at 1.3740 and if broken, The Euro would settle for a 1.3780 as a short term top, and a drop would already be underway, targeting 1.3685 & 1.3626.
Support:
• 1.3740: an obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 1.3685: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
• 1.3626: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
• 1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.3911: Jan 29th low.
---USD/JPYThe Dollar-Yen maintained trading above the support specified in yesterday’s report 89.70 (the low after issuance of the report was 89.77), and it rose modestly to break 90.22 and only reaching 90.49. This behaviour is a continuation for the slow advancement activity that we have seen recently, which as it is shown on the chart, is trading inside a slowly rising channel. As long as we are trading inside this channel we expect more of the same. The bottom of the channel is at 89.90 and this is the most important support for the short term. If broken, a drop will be initiated targeting 89.12 & 88.23 all over again. The resistance is at Jan 26th & 28th top 90.53, and breaking it would indicate that this rising trend will accelerate, targeting Fibonacci levels 91.14 & 91.76 all over again.
Support:
• 89.90: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 89.12: Jan 27th low.
• 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
• 90.53: Jan 26th & 28th highs.
• 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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Feb 18 2010, 01:30 AM
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MMG Member
Group: Member
Posts: 376
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 18, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
Fundamental Analysis: US CPI (MoM)
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.30%.
---Euro DollarThe Euro stopped just 8 pips above the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3778, before collapsing completely, breaking the support 1.3740 and successfully reaching both suggested targets 1.3685 & 1.3626. As we always say, stopping close enough to a Fibonacci resistance is an evidence of a downtrend, and this is what happened yesterday. Today, it seems we will have a correction for yesterday's huge drop, before continuing to go lower is such a strong downtrend. Intraday support 1.3562 is an important support, and as long as we hold above it, the odds for having our correction will be immense. But, if we break it, this sharp strong drop will go on and the next set of targets will be the very important support 1.3482 & if broken 1.3422. On the other hand, if we survive above 1.3562, we will test the resistance 1.3594, and if broken the correction will be immediately initiated, wit an ideal target at 1.3671, and if broken the next target will be 1.3724.
Support:
• 1.3562: the most important intraday support.
• 1.3482: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long term.
• 1.3422: May 18th low.
Resistance:
• 1.3594: Feb 12th low.
• 1.3671: Fibonacci 50% for yesterday's collapse.
• 1.3724: hourly resistance.
---USD/JPYAs expected, the Dollar-Yen maintained trading inside the channel we talked about yesterday, broke the resistance 90.53 & successfully reached the first suggested target 91.14. its only coincidence that short term Fibonacci 61.8% is almost at this level, specifically at 91.15. If it is broken, we will continue to rise and target the important Fibonacci 61.8% at 91.76. And this is an important resistance that if it is broken we can say with confidence that the Dollar has freed itself from short term downtrend. The first target of this "freedom" will be Oct 27th top 92.31. Short term resistance is at 90.80, and breaking it would reverse the strength signs we have seen in the past two days, creating a modest surprise. If this surprise actually happens, then we will target the most important short term support at 90.12, and only if broken we expect the Dollar-yen to reach 89.54.
Support:
• 90.80: Asian session low.
• 90.12: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 89.54: Feb 11th low.
Resistance:
• 91.15: short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance.
• 91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 92.31: Oct 27th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Feb 22 2010, 01:48 AM
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ForexPros Daily Analysis February 22, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar ‘Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process’, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.Click here to join free.
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index
European traders look forward to the publication of the German Ifo Business Climate Index. The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 96.3.
---Euro Dollar The Euro broke Friday’s resistance 1.3507 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3572, before hitting the second target 1.3653 after the open with astonishing accuracy (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3652). That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see today’s most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3618, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491.
Support:
• 1.3618: the confirmation level for the “Engulfing pattern” on the hourly chart.
• 1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level.
• 1.3284: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts.
Resistance:
• 1.3653: Important intraday top.
• 1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart.
• 1.3810: important intraday top.
---USD/JPYDollar-Yen was not able to break the support 91.51 or the resistance 92.31 on Friday. But in spite of a relatively limited trading range, it has left us a very important signal on the charts, which is a clear “Reversal Day” pattern. This pattern is one of the strongest reversal formations, and most successful ones. Thus, we will immediately take the Yen side. We expect this pair to start falling once we break the short term support 91.55, which we trade pips above right now. IF the support at 91.55 is broken, we will witness a strong drop targeting 90.40 as a first target, and maybe we will also see 89.90. But if the price holds above this support, we could see a price behaviour negating this outlook, and we could see a test of the resistance 92.31. If this resistance is broken, the strength signs from last week will continue to achieve gains, with the next set of targets at 93.08 & the important 93.75.
Support:
• 91.55: important intraday bottom.
• 90.40: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 89.90: Feb 15th low.
Resistance:
• 92.31: Oct 27th high.
• 93.08: Jul 22nd low.
• 93.75: Jan 8th top.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer:Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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