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Daily Market Outlook
jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:35 AM
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 2, 2011





The AUD/USD is moving within wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within this wave there are A-B-C subwaves with subwave C still developing - colored orange red in the chart. The nearest resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803, and expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9865, 0.9865-0.9988-0.9956.
Resistances:
- 1.0148-55 = confluence area of .764 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0172 = XOP
- 1.0273-78 = confluence area of XOP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price keeps moving down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0147, 0.9956-1.0147.
Supports:
- 1.0074 = .382 retracement
- 1.0052 = .50 ret
- 1.0039 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .618 ret
- 1.0006 = .50 ret
- 0.9873 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now slightly below the zero level indicating a retracement. Therefore wait until the price hits a Fib support to open long positions - at 1.0074 or lower at 1.0059-39.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.



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This post has been edited by jebat66: Feb 2 2011, 01:37 AM


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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:37 AM
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USD/JPY Intraday Technical analysis



The spot rate approaches the lower limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 81.20 suggesting a rebound in the short term. However a break of these levels would initiate a downward trend more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 81.20 with a 1st objective of 81.90, then 82.10. A break in 81.00 would invalidate this scenario.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:38 AM
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GOLD Intraday Technical analysis


Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1342. A break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin an upward trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1342 with a 1st objective of 1353, then 1357. A break in 1340 would invalidate this scenario.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:39 AM
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GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis



The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1.6230 suggesting a decline in the short term. A return on its intermediate support to 1.6070 is expected before a resumption of bullish.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.6070 with a 1st objective of 1.6160, then 1.6230. A break in 1.6050 would invalidate this scenario.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:40 AM
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EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis



The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1.3860. A return to the lower limit of its channel is feasible in the short term.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.3750 with a 1st objective of 1.3840, then 1.3860. A break in 1.3740 would invalidate this scenario.


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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:41 AM
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Levels For February 2, 2011



TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :

Resistance. 3 : 1.3839.
Resistance. 2 : 1.3773.
Resistance. 1 : 1.3733.
PIVOT : 1.3667
Support. 1 : 1.3601.
Support. 2 : 1.3561.
Support. 3 : 1.3495.
TODAY OUTLOOK :

The USD/JPY is testing the 81.50 level, if this pair can break out and close above 81.59, the USD/JPY will advance and test the 81.75 level. On the other hand, if this pair can break out and close below 81.43, it is expected to go down to 81.25. However, please pay attention to today’s Resistance. 3 and today’s Support. 3, usually after reaching one of these levels the USD/JPY reverses between 10 pips to 20 pips. If the pair reaches one of these levels and still goes more than 50 pips in the chosen direction, this will denote that the USD/JPY has found its tendency for today.
TODAY RECOMMENDATION :

BUY if the USD/JPY can break out and close above 81.60; set Take profit at 81.75 as the first target and 82.00 as the second target.
SELL if the USD/JPY can break out and close bellow 81.25; set Take profit at 81.00 as the first target and 80.75 as the second target.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:42 AM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Levels For February 2, 2011



TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :

Breakout Buy level : 1.3896.
Strong Resistance : 1.3888.
Original Resistance : 1.3875.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3862.
Target Inner Area : 1.3829.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3796.
Original Support : 1.3783.
Strong Support : 1.3770.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3762.
TODAY OUTLOOK :

The EUR/USD is testing the 1.3850 level; if this pair can close above this level it is expected to go up; on the other hand if the EUR/USD reverses down, this pair will test the 1.3825 level; if this pair can easily break out and close below this level, the EUR/USD will test its next level at 1.3800.
TODAY SUGGESTION :

BUY if this pair can close above 1.3850; set Take profit at 1.3875 as the first target and 1.3900 as the second target .
SELL if this pair can close below 1.3825; set Take profit at 1.3800 as the first target and 1.3775 as the second target.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:43 AM
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 2, 2011



Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has successfully broken the support level 0.9910, to rebound further. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral. As noted earlier, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.




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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:44 AM
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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 2, 2011



Break of the 1.3755 level cancelled the corrective scenario of the current upside movement. In this respect growth of the euro, developing since Monday, can be considered as the 5th wave in the range of the upside section, initiated January 10. At the moment it is quite difficult to predict possible targets for this 5th, which should not be longer than the formed 3rd.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:45 AM
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 2, 2011





On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is still demonstrating downside movement after it failed again to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50. 





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This post has been edited by jebat66: Feb 2 2011, 01:47 AM


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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:48 AM
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 2, 2011


Overview:
The euro has resumed upside movement, the correction was not deep and the sell signal was not supported by the respective level. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3853 €“ the second resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level at 1.3958. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3720), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3853, and further to 1.3958. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3720. If the MACD reverses down, long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen €” red line
Kijun-Sen €” blue line
Senkou Span A €” light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B €” light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span €” green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


<table width="100%"> Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:49 AM
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GBP/USD wave analysis for February 2, 2011



The fact that the GBP/USD advanced above the reached high at 1.6055 proved the development of the uptrend, initiated December 28, as a full 5-wave structure. At the same time we should notice the nearness of the estimated target level, which is also 1.618 Fibo level, according to the 1st wave of this uptrend. It is quite difficult to define if a prolongation will be formed in its 5th wave, but a rebound from the 1.6180 is quite possible.



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jebat66
post Feb 2 2011, 01:50 AM
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 2, 2011





On a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF is rebounding after it could not break the resistance level 1.5192. As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above this level as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.


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jebat66
post Feb 3 2011, 12:10 AM
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 3, 2011





The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, since it's the top of wave A. As of now the resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-131.96-130.91, and 130.91-132.30-131.78.
Resistances:
- 132.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
- 133.12-17 = confluence area of two OP's
- 133.82 = COP
- 134.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 129.75 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly above the zero level and moving in flat manner around it, therefore stand aside until the market gets more volatile or the oscillator gets into the oversold - 30 pips to go.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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jebat66
post Feb 3 2011, 12:12 AM
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 3, 2011





The AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9956-1.0147, 0.9865-1.0147.
Supports:
- 1.0052 = .50 retracement
- 1.0039 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .618 ret
- 1.0006 = .50 ret
- 0.9973 = .618 ret
If the price breaks above 1.0147 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803, and expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9865, 0.9865-1.0147-1.0054.
Resistances:
- 1.0148 = .764 ret
- 1.0172 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0228 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0273 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now in the oversold therefore now is the moment to consider long positions from supports at 1.0074, 1.0052 and 1.0039.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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