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Daily Market Outlook
jebat66
post Feb 22 2012, 03:13 AM
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CHF: TRADING VOLUME FOR SWISS FRANC IS MINIMAL
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is moving with slight deviation on Wednesday, due to external uncertainty.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area and started to go up slowly, while volumes are average, and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at 0.9110, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9090 and 0.9070.Otherwise, 0.9175 will become movement target.

It became known yesterday that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs.

The report showed that exports decreased by 3.4% last month against preliminary estimate of growth of 6.1%;imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast: +7.6% m/m).

The data is not too positive, since levels of exports are in the red again.

According to the previous data, inflation in Switzerland fell by 0.4% m/m (_0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the index and at the same time it is maximal fall since October 2009. Expensive Yen seriously hampers the progress of economy: at the beginning of the year import of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% y/y), however the goods of Swiss production rose in price by 0.1% m/m. Therefore, inflation threat is becoming more tangible in Switzerland. It became known earlier that index of economic expectations ZEW rose to -21.2 points in February against the level of -50.1points in January. Most likely it is the reflection of monetary efforts of SNB. Unemployment rate in the country amounted to 3.4% in January against the forecast of 3.5% and previous value of 3.3%. This is the highest level of the index since last spring indicating unfavourable situation in the national economy. Monetary politician Mr. Jordan said earlier that SNB is firmly determined to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair Euro/Franc. The Bank is prepared to adopt additional measures if economic situation requires. He also confirmed that economic growth rate slowed down this year in Switzerland, although there is no risk of the rise in inflation. He believes that Franc is still too strong and reduction in its price is urgently required.

Minister of Economic Affairs of Switzerland acknowledged yesterday that Franc is overvalued, however presently this fact does not alarm government, since, according to the Minister, the country has learnt to live under the conditions of some volatility. Forecasts of the government remain unchanged: it is expected that GDP in Switzerland will rise by 0.5% this year.


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jebat66
post Feb 22 2012, 03:14 AM
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GBP: BRITISH POUND HAS NOT DETERMINED MOVEMENT DIRECTION
The British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday after sales last night.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it started to go down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has left overbought zone and is going down, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5790 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5780 and 1.5750.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Bean said yesterday that economic growth should accelerate in the second half of the year and the rate of inflation will slowdown; while in the first 6 months of the year economic growth is slow. In general, Mr. Bean thinks that economic growth will recover gradually and will be moderate.

At the regular meeting in February, the Bank of England increased asset repurchase program by 50 billion pounds, to the level of 325 billion pounds, as expected. Mr. Osborn stated commenting this decision that the increase of QE will help achieve inflation target (official target is 2% and it has not been changed for about two years.)According to Osborn, current monetary policy is still the primary instrument of influence on economic changes. Analysis of the Bank of England proved efficiency of QE.

According to Rightmove, house price index in the UK rose by 4.1% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in February against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.8% m/m. Thus, the index demonstrates maximum increase since April 2002 on monthly basis. The rise in price was triggered by small number of deals in the market and some easing of the lending conditions.

It became known earlier that consumer confidence Nationwide increased to 47 points in January against the level of 38 points in December. The report provides the following information: index of expenditure amounted to 78 points against previous 77 points; index of business expectations rose to 64 points versus 50 points earlier. Therefore, confidence of British consumers has recovered on the first month of the year from the record lows; nevertheless buyers remain cautious, especially in regards to large acquisitions. The data released earlier was quite good: CPI decreased by 0.5% m/m (+3.6% y/y) in January against the level of +4.2% y/y in December. According to the data released at the end of last week, volume of production in the construction sector declined by 0.5% on quarterly basis(+0.9% y/y) in December against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.2%.Authorities have already reacted to this statistics, stating that the index cannot be the basis for revising country's GDP.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:43 AM
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GBP: BRITISH POUND DOES NOT RECEIVE SUPPORT
The British Pound Sterling rate is traded in black at the Forexcurrency market on Thursday, however it is still under pressure from sellers.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down while volumes are decreasing and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down, and giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5660 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5650 and 1.5630.

Last night the Pound's goodmood was spoiled: the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England showed a split of opinions in the Monetary Committee. Two of its members, Posen andMiles voted for expansion of the assets repurchase program for 75 billion pounds, while other seven monetary politicians were for expansion of the volume of QE for 50 billion. All members of MPC were unanimous in regards to interestrate.

The minutes noted that some members of MPC had opinion that further stimulation shall be discontinued.

As a result, "hawks"are back again in the "dove-like" MPC.

We would remind that at the regular meeting in February, the Bank of England increased asset repurchase program by 50 billion pounds, to the level of 325 billion pounds, as expected.Mr. Osborn stated commenting this decision that the increase of QE will help achieve inflation target (official target is 2% and it has not been changed forabout two years.) According to Osborn, current monetary policy is still the primary instrument of influence on economic changes. Analysis of the Bank of England proved efficiency of QE.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Bean said yesterday that economic growth should accelerate in the second half of the year and the rate of inflation will slowdown; while in the first 6 months of the year economic growth is slow. In general, Mr. Bean thinks that economic growth will recover gradually and will be moderate. According to Rightmove, house price index in the UK rose by 4.1% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in February against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.8% m/m. Thus, the index demonstrates maximum increase since April 2002 on monthly basis. The rise inprice was triggered by small number of deals in the market and some easing of the lending conditions.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:45 AM
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EUR/USD: EURO GROWS UP WITH THE HELP OF OLD IDEAS
The pair EUR/USD is traded slightly upward at the currency Forex market on Thursday while volumes are very low.

By 9.25 Moscow time the Euro isat 1.3260 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3243.

There are no new drivers for movement in the market yet. Yesterday's news that rating agency Fitch downgraded rating of Greece to the "junk" level was taken for granted by investors, therefore reaction to it was not too stormy.

Meanwhile, market continues to assess news of the week about Greece and drives to conclusion that the country is pushed to selective default. The day is going to be uneventful in terms of macro-economic data.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3150-1.3290 at the trading session on Thursday.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:46 AM
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NZD: NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR IS TRADED SLUGGISHLY
At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is tradedsluggishly on Thursday in the absence of drivers in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator isin the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and is going down, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down slowly in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8290, the pair will go to 0.8270 and 0.8250.

Due to lack of any interesting trading ideas the currency is traded in the narrow range.

Statistics was positive for the New Zealand currency on Monday: business activity index in the service sectorBNZ rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminary expectations of 50.9points. The report showed that growth has been recorded in 4 out of 5 components; however the main catalyst for the growth were the orders of new companies. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 points which is themaximum since November 2007.

Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporated into the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3 (+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significantsupport to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship whichattracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5%y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealandeconomy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almoststopped growing, but revived later. Most likely the index will be weaker in Q4.Statistics released earlier showed that house priceindex REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminaryexpectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in Q4 2011against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. This is positive information indicating that, employment sector, being one of the supportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even in case of pessimistic external influence.

According to the report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate for his intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will be repeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump of economy in the global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:47 AM
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AUD: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR STILL HAS NO SUPPORT
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate still have no support on Thursday, although it tries to regain after four days of sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it started to go down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone andis giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640, the pair will go to 1.0630 and 1.0610. Apparently, sales will increase in case of breakdown at 1.06.

Australian currency has been "knocked down" by domestic political news: investors discuss rumours that the head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Australia Mr. Radd will leave his post because of disagreements with Prime-Minister Julia Gillard. Usually the AUD takes political news quietly; however this information can work as drive for trading under dead calm conditions in the market.

According to released statistics,index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4 against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%. Statistics supportedthe currency. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against theforecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m inDecember against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. According to statisticsreleased earlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% inJanuary, up to 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evidentonly in three out of nine component Statistics released last week was positive:unemployment rate in Australia fell to 5.1% in January against 5.2% in Decemberand the forecast of 5.3%. However, according to RBA deputy head, the rise inunemployment rate is not excluded in the coming months due to externalinfluence. He also noted that the rise in investments and high rate of the nationalcurrency have beneficial effect on the economy. Consumer confidence indexWestpac increased to 101.1 points in February against the level of 97.1 pointsin January, which is a good signal

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which were released yesterday, were neutral. The document said that the threat of disorderly default in Greece represents the major downward risk and current monetary policy conforms to macro-economic expectations. Issue of rate level has not been considered. GDP growth seems tobe close to two-year trend.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:47 AM
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JPY: JAPANESE YEN IS BEING SLIGHTLY CORRECTED
At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market on Thursday after significant decline which lasted for over one week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes up in the positive area and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown 80.20, the pair will go to 80.30 and 80.50. Most likely, correction in the JPY will be short run, after which it will continue to weaken.

Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Noda said on Thursday that the Bank shall implement its monetary policy more efficiently; measures adopted earlier this month were taken positively by the market and helped to release pressure on the Yen.

Such weak positions, when the JPY fell to 3.5-month lows can be explained by prior statements of the Bank ofJapan. At the meeting this week, the Bank of Japan left interest rate at thelevel of 0.1% per annum; however the Bank has made a step, unexpected for the market increasing volume of the asset repurchase program to 65 trillion yen versus 55 trillion yen previously. This decision was unanimous, as well as theother one: program of purchases of long-term bonds was expanded to Y19 trillionfrom Y9 trillion. In addition, Central Bank surprised market again, by statingthat according to the bank it will be reasonable to set inflation target at 1%,as economic forecasts are extremely hazy.

It was Bank's opinion on the CPI target that forced the market to revise trading strategies for the Yen.

Strict measures of the Central Bank are just a continued reaction to statistics: GDP in Japan fell by 2.3% y/y in Q4 2011, since European crisis and slow down in the world economic ratehave prevented recovery after natural disaster.

Japan will come out of arecession with the help of support from China. Representatives of Japanese Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Tuesday that Beijing and Tokyo are going towork in cooperation and pursue efforts to fight against sovereign debt ofEurope. At the same time Finance Ministry noted that Japan shall apply more efforts to cope with its own debt problems.


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jebat66
post Feb 23 2012, 04:48 AM
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CHF: SWISS FRANC IS AT THE LOCAL HIGHS AGAIN
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate demonstrated interest to local highs again on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area and is moving along the signal line again not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has gone to the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9080, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 and 0.9050.

Actually, new surge of strengthening in Franc took place with out intervene of the authorities. Minister of Economic Affairs of the country added more fuel to the fire yesterday saying that it would be logical to shift pegging of rate between Franc and Euro to 1.40 euro ( now it is 1.20). In his opinion, in this case EIR/CHF will be closer to purchasing power parity. In addition, the politician noted that SNB needs a new leader as soon as possible.

We would remind that SNB does not have a leader yet after resignation of Mr. Hildebrand in January.

Monetary politician Mr. Jordan said earlier that SNB is firmly determined to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair Euro/Franc. The Bank is prepared to adopt additional measures if economic situation requires. He also confirmed that economic growth rate slowed down this year in Switzerland, although there is no risk of the rise in inflation. He believes that Franc is still too strong and reduction in its price is urgently required.

It became known yesterday that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. The report showed that exports decreased by 3.4% last month against preliminary estimate of growth of 6.1%; imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast: +7.6% m/m).The data is not too positive, since levels of exports are in the red again.

According to the previous data, inflation in Switzerland fell by 0.4% m/m (_0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the index and at the same time it is maximal fall since October 2009. Expensive Yens eriously hampers the progress of economy: at the beginning of the year import of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% y/y), however the goods of Swiss production rose in price by 0.1% m/m. Therefore, inflation threat is becoming more tangible in Switzerland. It became known earlier that index of economic expectations ZEW rose to -21.2 points in February against the level of -50.1points in January. Most likely it is the reflection of monetary efforts of SNB. Unemployment rate in the country amounted to 3.4% in January against the forecast of 3.5% and previous value of 3.3%. This is the highest level of the index since last spring indicating unfavourable situation in the national economy.


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jebat66
post Feb 24 2012, 03:48 AM
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AUD: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IS RECOVERING DESPITE NEGATIVE FACTORS
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded upward on Friday, ignoring news which is not too good for Australia.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it goes down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator suspended its fall in the neutral zone and started to grow, giving a signal for moderate buying.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0735, the pair will go to 1.0740 и1.0770.

The AUD has ignored this news; however it became known today that rating agency Fitch downgraded rating of three Australian banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation.

Representative of RBA Mr. Lowe noted that growth in the sector of business investments can reach around 10%this year. In addition, demand in private sector is also quite high.

Earlier Australian currency has been "knocked down" by domestic political news: investors discuss rumours that the head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Australia Mr. Radd will leave his post because of disagreements with Prime-Minister Julia Gillard. Usually the AUD takes political news with no worry.

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.

According to released statistics, index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4 against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%. Statistics supported the currency. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. According to statistics released earlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates.


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jebat66
post Feb 24 2012, 03:49 AM
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JPY: JAPANESE YEN REMAINS WEAK ON FRIDAY
At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate downward at the end of the week because positive external background is still preserved.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator goes up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.50, the pair will go to 80.60 and80.80.Consolidation near current levels is highly probable.

According to the rating agency Moody's, Japan has not yet reached the state when economic negative factor would have justified the downgrade of the rating. At the same time economists of the agency noted that weakness of economic policy in the country is still maintained and purchases of bonds would have temporarily nature. It is doubtful that balance of current account will show deficit in the nearest future.

Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Noda said on Thursday that the Bank shall implement its monetary policy more efficiently; measures adopted earlier this month were taken positively by the market and helped to release pressure on the Yen.

Such weak positions, when the JPY fell to 3.5- month lows can be explained by prior statements of the Bank of Japan. At the meeting this week, the Bank of Japan left interest rate at the level of 0.1% per annum; however the Bank has made a step, unexpected for the market increasing volume of the asset repurchase program to 65 trillion yen versus 55 trillion yen previously. This decision was unanimous, as well as the other one: program of purchases of long-term bonds was expanded to Y19 trillion from Y9 trillion. In addition, Central Bank surprised market again, by stating that according to the bank it will be reasonable to set inflation target at 1%,as economic forecasts are extremely hazy.

It was Bank's view on the CPI target that forced the market to revise trading strategies for the Yen.

Radical measures of the Central Bank are just a continued reaction to statistics: GDP in Japan fell by 2.3% y/yin Q4 2011, since European crisis and slowdown in the global economic rate have prevented recovery after natural disaster.


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jebat66
post Feb 24 2012, 03:50 AM
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CHF: SWISS FRANC HAS REACHED FOUR-MONTH HIGHS
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is still traded close to the highs of 16 weeks at the end of the week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area; it is moving along the signalline again and is not giving a clear signal. StochasticOscillator has gone to oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9010, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9000 и 0.8980.

Economic situation in Switzerland has not changed fundamentally on Friday.

Note that actually a new round of strengthening in Franc took place not without interference of the authorities.Earlier, Minister of Economic Affairs of the country added fuel into fire whenhe stated that it would be logical to change pegging level of Franc / Euro to1.40 (now it is 1.20). He believes that in this case, the pair EIR/CHF would becloser to purchasing power. In addition, the politician said that SNB needs a newhead as soon as possible.

We would remind that SNB does not have a leader since resignation of Hildebrand in January.

Earlier Jordan, monetary politician, acting as a head of SNB said that the regulator firmly determined to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair Euro/Franc. He is also prepared toadopt additional measures if economic situation requires. He also confirmedthat economic growth rate slowed down this year in Switzerland, although thereis no risk of the rise in inflation. He believes that Franc is still too strongand reduction in its price is urgently required.

According to the previous data,inflation in Switzerland fell by 0.4% m/m (_0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in theindex and at the same time it is maximal fall since October 2009. Expensive Yenseriously hampers the progress of economy: at the beginning of the year importof consumer goods fell by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% y/y), however the goods of Swissproduction rose in price by 0.1% m/m. Therefore, inflation threat is becomingmore tangible in Switzerland. Index of economic expectations ZEW rose to -21.2points in February against the level of -50.1 points in January.

Trade balance in Switzerland amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. The report showed that exports decreased by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary estimate of growth of 6.1%; imports increased by 3.6%(preliminary forecast: +7.6% m/m).The data is not too positive, since levels ofexports are in the red again.


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jebat66
post Feb 24 2012, 03:52 AM
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EUR/USD: EURO SKYROCKETED TO LOCAL HIGHS
The pair EUR/USD is traded at the local peaks at the Forex currency market on Friday morning.

By 9.10 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3372 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3371.

Good U.S. statistics and expectations of positive data on GDP in Germany caused a new round of rally in Euro/USD

In general, a lot of speculative positions are still opened in the major pair, which increases degree of volatility.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3150-1.3390 at the trading session on Friday.


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jebat66
post Feb 24 2012, 03:53 AM
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GBP: BRITISH POUND ALMOST STANDS STILL
At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate hardly moves at the trading session on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down while volumes are decreasing and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down, and giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5730 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5710 и1.5680.

In general, previous session was neutral for the GDP and recovery of the Pound after sales is attributed to EUR/USD. Position of the GBP/USD has not changed fundamentally.

Last night Pound's good spirit has been spoiled as minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England showed a split of opinions in the Monetary Committee. Two of its members, Posen and Miles voted for expansion of the assets repurchase program for 75 billion pounds, while other seven monetary politicians were for expansion of the volume of QE for 50 billion. All members of MPC were unanimous in regards to interest rate.

The minutes noted that some members of MPC spoke out in favour of discontinuation of further stimulation.

As a result, "hawks" are back again in the "dove-like" MPC.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Bean said earlier that economic growth should accelerate in the second half of the year and the rate of inflation will slowdown; while in the first 6 months of the year economic growth is slow. In general, Mr. Bean thinks that economic growth will recover gradually and will be moderate.

According to Rightmove, house price index in the UK rose by 4.1% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in February against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.8% m/m. Thus, the index demonstrates maximum increase since April 2002 on monthly basis. The rise in price was triggered by small number of deals in the market and some easing of the lending conditions.

We would remind that at the regular meeting in February, the Bank of England increased asset repurchase program by 50 billion pounds, to the level of 325 billion pounds, as expected. Mr. Osborn stated commenting this decision that the increase of QE will help achieve inflation target (official target is 2% and it has not been changed for about two years.) According to Osborn, current monetary policy is still the primary instrument of influence on economic changes. Analysis of the Bank of England proved efficiency of QE.


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jebat66
post Feb 27 2012, 03:02 AM
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CAD: Canadian Dollar is ready to give way to American currency

At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate goes down at the beginning of the week, as it seems that investors have fired off all trading ideas.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is in the negative area and is going up slightly, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.0020 the pair will go to 1.0030 and 1.0050.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current levels of the rates comply with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of the week, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market.

The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% -decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

The data released earlier showed that new orders in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.8% in December against prior expectations of +3.6%. Number of outstanding orders in this sector fell by 1.6% (versus +1.2% previously. Sales in this sector were low: growth amounted 0.6% in December against expected +1.9%.

According to the data released earlier, real GDP in Canada fell by 0.1% m/m in November (+2.0% y/y) against expectations of 0.2% m/m.

Statistics released earlier showed that leading indicators index in Canada rose by 0.8% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.6% m/m. Latest statistics showed that CPI in Canada fell by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) in December against the forecast of -0.1% m/m. Despite this obvious fact, the data requires some clarification. Annual growth of CPI has been minimal since February 2011, and inflation reduced due to decline in prices for gasoline and other fuel. Therefore, basing on the current inflationary situation, the Bank of Canada can keep inflation at the existing level for some more time with no damage for its monetary policy.

According to the updated estimates of the Bank of Canada, GDP in the country will amount to 3.1% in Q1 2013; inflation will reduce to 1.5% in Q2 this year. At the same time, interest rate can go up in the moderate pace during all the year of 2013, while decline in mortgage rates will encourage boost in the volumes of lending to households.


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jebat66
post Feb 27 2012, 03:04 AM
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AUD: Australian Dollar is being sluggishly sold out

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to go down slowly at the beginning of the new week, although there are no apparent reasons for sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it goes down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator suspended its fall in the neutral zone and started to grow, giving a signal for moderate buying.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at 1.0665, the pair will go to 1.0640 and 1.0620. However, the pair can go back to 1.0750 in case of a new surge of market optimism.

Macro-economic situation in Australia remains stable on Monday.

At the moment, sales of the AUD are regarded as sluggish movement, due to lack of constructive trading ideas.

At the end of last week, representative of RBA Mr. Lowe noted that growth in the sector of business investments can reach around 10% this year. In addition, demand in private sector is also quite high.Earlier Australian currency has been “knocked down” by domestic political news: investors discuss rumours that the head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Australia Mr. Radd will leave his post because of disagreements with Prime-Minister Julia Gillard. Usually the AUD takes political news with no worry. According to released statistics, index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4 against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. According to statistics released earlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.


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